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2001 05 14 De Rosa Keynes and Pearl Harbour Benny and Ozy macau@consilia.com 05/14/01 3:12 PM De Rosa, Keynes and Pearl Harbour David De Rosa is once more slipping into one of the basic errors of non-voodoo conservatives.In a paper dated may 13th, and dealing with Koizumi's effort to distance himself from Japanese-style keynesism, De Rosa criticizes both Bush administration and Koizumi for supporting the project of new Japanese investments in defense. The two reasons for criticizing Japan are - according to De Rosa: 1) that the project will infuriate the Chinese; 2) that Japan will slip once more into keynesian spending.I acknowledge that there's no way to be sure that the "defense investments" will not turn, in the hands of a Japanese liberal-social-nationalist, into plain deficit spending. But De Rosa himself credits Koizumi with a genuine effort to change politics. If he is cheating on weapon spending, he'll cheat on everything else: in that case, one destroyer will not destroy Japan's economy more than two more bridges or highways would do.But AKNOWLEDGING that the "new economy" (which exists, while "new economics" don't) NEEDS weapons, security, routes, is one fundamental step. New technology-based economy needs a suitable cultural, political, fiscal and geopolitical framework. It needs protection of infrastructures, but also of users [i.e.: ensuring that using an internet connection doesn't bring you to jail]. In short, it needs free society, protected ALSO by the legitimate use of force. Defending infrastructures and communications from the remnants of Communist Era Asian politics is a fundamental step. It has been wrong (and it was a not irrelevant reason of the long Japanese and Asian crisis) to think that the new economy could prosper in a context of geopolitical appeasement. This is the perfect [perfectly WRONG] corollary to the idea that the "new economy" could prosper in an anti-capitalist cultural environment. Filling the internet hype with free-lunch rhetoric was not a minor reason of the demise of tech stocks in the last year (ref: "Destruction of Language, Selling at a Loss and Moral Sanction of Book Cooking in Amazonian Tribes, Yale University Press, 2023).So, the new economy needs force. Military force too.And military force, to be legitimate, needs to be supported by political accountability. Local chains of command and regional funding and handling of weapons are a requirement of political accountability. The fact that Japan takes care of its own security IMPROVES political accountability of the military.Nobody needs a social-nationalist armed Japan. No, thanks. But the problem is social-nationalism, not weapons. If Japan is NOT swinging towards sound money and away from social-nationalism, then it should better NOT be armed. Asia doesn't need TWO imperial examples of arrogance clashing. ME, on the other side of the planet, I don't need two armed tribes clashing either.But if Japan is going to establish itself (finally, after too many lost decades) as a free-market oriented country, then it better be able to defend its legitimate interests against any "fury" (to use De Rosa's term) which the Chinese could feel against this new role of Japan.I don't think that China will be "infuriated" mainly by Japan's weapons. It will be FAR MORE "infuriated" by Japan escaping Asian tribalism, social-nationalism, protected capitalism. Dependence from foreign military protection of routes has been one of the reasons of the corruption of Japanese politics.If weapons (and the political background they need) are the corollary of a new found political accountability of Japan, that money will be well spent. It will not be deficit spending, it will be an investment financed by its own returns.How? That's next issue. But the answer is not in Nixon's handbook.2001 05 14 Political correctness is bad for your health ozy miani@consilia.com 05/14/01 5:48 PM Political correctness is bad for your health Anothere example of the paradoxes of politically correct dogmas.Let's take two (three) dogmas:1) not only homosexuality is not a problem, but transexuality is good for your health and gender-change surgery should be welfare-supported (especially in the military and police corps). An homosexcual or transgender person is by definition on the right side of the fence.2) smoke is bad. bad. bad bad bad bad. no way. bad. the smoker is by definition on the wrong side of the fence.3) theorizing that promiscuous behaviour of homosexual or transgender persons could be hazardous for health is plain nazi propaganda.Am I correct? Did I resume it correctly?Good.I just received a paper from Harris Interactive, saying that recent statistics show that LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender; or is "b" for borderline?) people are "more likely to smoke than other adult people, DESPITE risks for their health". It says that the statistics clearly shows that LGBT people tend to "voluntarily take more risks for their health (by smoking)", and it "PRESCRIBES AGGRESSIVE COUNTER MARKETING" to STOP gays and lesbians from smoking.Brainwashing? therapy? loud radio advertising? leaflets in schools? door-to-door home visits at 10am on sundays? what's AGGRESSIVE marketing?And what would happen should somebody (anybody) suggest that "aggressive" marketing is used to persuade LGBT to take LESS risks in ANY other domain of their life? He would be labeled a nazi, to say the least.Paradoxes of PC.Speaking of paradoxes: the shares of Harris Interactive (HPOL) crashed 12% just after the release of the paper.Vengeance by nervous chain-smoking gay-traders?ozy miani@consilia.com 05/15/01 1:39 PM gay trading After posting my note yesterday, I was frowning upon myself because of the slighlty bigot reference to "gay traders", when I got ANOTHER paper from Harris Interactive. It was one month old: Heidi kindly found it for me. The thesis of this other research was that "lesbian,gay,bisexual and transgender people are far MORE INCLINED than the average person to day tradingand the use of online brokers".Reality extends beyond the farthest-fetched conjectures.As far as a PRESS RELEASE about a STATISTIC about TRANSEXUALISM and DAY-TRADING can be considered part of reality.2001 05 15 italian political elections. No, better: electors. ozy miani@consilia.com 05/15/01 3:19 PM italian political elections. No, better: electors. In a recent letter to clients I analyzed the politics and policy of next Italian government, with reference to the straitjackets of Eurocracy. Further analysis is in the making, and clients will receive it as usual.This is just a quick comment about the ELECTION process (which is something different from government's policy).First of all I must congratulate the usual "dog" who posts anonymous shit on this site, for his usual perfect timing in calling Italians "politically immature" last week. It's another example of his political acumen and timing.I would like to note just a couple of things. And I will not speak of politicians, I will speak of citizens and electors. This is not a praise of a future government (I am notoriously NOT in the business of praising governments). It is an assessment of the REASONS why it was voted into power.First of all, Italians voted with their wallet, and finally found the target. Even considering the huge mediatic support for Berlusconi, concentrated on the name of Berlusconi and on his party, the demise of Lega and Christian Democrats and the flat performance of Alleanza Nazionale are all indicators that this was no reactionary VOTE (again: different from populist government).I would say that after noting another aspect: the failure, on the left, of FORMER communists, and the good showing of COMMUNISTS and EUROSOCIALISTS (the Prodi niche-party, where Rutelli belongs).What does that mean?What happened, according to me, is the following: Forza Italia dared to PROMISE a rightist economic policy (repeat: "promise". Everything lies in the capability to face eurocratic straitjacket, which Berlusconi didn't dare to challenge. that's his democratic-christian flawed component).The rightist electorate voted him, and that's obvious.The leftist electorate was faced with a problem: either believing that taxing-and-spending works, and vote the communists (and part of the electorate did: hence the good showing of bertinotti's communists); OR believing in the maastritcheans gimmicks of past governments. These were the only two alternatives to the self-evident rationality of tax cuts (I have some doubts about bridges and highway-spending...). Some chose the good old tax-and-spend communist line. amen.The others, either checked their payroll and the conditions of their city hospital, or they didn't. Those who did not, didn't realize the huge amount of accounting tricks and investment spending which was used to reduce the red bottom line of italian budget. And they voted the Eurocrat group. They quit the former-communists (DS), and went straight for the blue-stars-banner-and-starry-eyes social-christian gang. Hence the votes quitting DS for "margherita".The others, the ones who realized that all the Eurocrat rhetoric amounts to huge spending cuts on investments and no spending cuts on parasitary payrolls, cuts on catgut and not on unneeded hospital nurses, etc... Well, most of these voted for Berlusconi.This means that:1) Berlusconi got votes from people who are from the left, but who are smart enough not to believe in euro-babble; many of them are employees, smarter than Confindustria eurocrats; this finally smells Thatcherian populism;2) bertinotti is right (from his point of view): the left lost because it didn't choose a clear line of opposition to a rightist policy whose appeal to electors was evident. Those who still believe that taxes are good for growth, couldn't vote for the maastrichtean gang, which taxes but doesn't deliver growth3) The former communist party (DS) was wrong because it didn't realize that the only chance, once a leftist policy forgotten, was to surrender to eurosocialism.4) The eurocrats got enough votes on the left, and will try to rein in Berlusconi regaining power on the right. This is the main political theme of next years.5) Berlusconi better realize WHO voted for him (payrolls ravaged by maastrichtean taxes and imbecile monetary policy and regulations). He succeeded where Bossi failed: in exploiting the revolt against the REAL reasons of Italian sclerosis. I am not sure he knows. If he leaves space to the euro-misery on the right too, the small people of producers will quit him. That's the biggest danger for him.Finally, one word about the pathetic show of people waiting hours to vote. This happened mainly because the abovementioned ill-conceived spending cuts [cut the essential, spend on the unnecessary... ghaaaa!!!] affected the organization of the polls. Well: this kind of cracks in the armor of apparent italian budget stabilization, are EXACTLY one of the thousand signals (trains crashing, obsolete hospitals, decaying schools) which italian moderate leftist voters noted, and which brought them to voted for the right together with the usual electoral base of business people.joe melli@consilia.com 05/15/01 5:55 PM Repeat: it's voters, not ministers Cuckoos? Here's Mr Marzano of Forza Italia: "tax reductions will happen WITHIN the Maastricht framework. Stability Pact is a reference point".Stability Pact is a bluff.Here starts the patient work by Berlusconi to lose next polls.joe melli@consilia.com 05/15/01 3:38 PM RE: italian voters. Speaking of the "maturity" of Italian voters:they fought against an awful electoral system, and they erased from the board at least 4 parties. Among these:1) the so-called "libertarians" of Emma Therese of Calcutta Bonino. Eurocrat and "liberal socialist" pretending to be a free-marketeer. It took years to Italian producers to understand, but they finally got rid of that boring lesbian. (Thanks for destroying nuclear energy in Italy and for benefiting Eni, Emma. Some pro-capitalist!). Dead for good.2)the party born from the right wing of CISL: worst italian tradition of corporatist state. Dead. 3) moralist-statist di pietro. dead.4) the greens. they will finally become a consumer-rights movement and fitness club. Not erased yet, but seriously damaged and ready for a fight for votes with the extreme left.etc.All of this, with a proportional-based electoral system? Italian voters are not "immature", they are political geniuses.CONSILIA library heidi@consilia.com 05/15/01 5:22 PM maturity Paul Samuelson. Italians will not get their promised tax cuts because Italy is not a "mature democracy". Ref. "mature" democracies, Germany, money, war and the European ideology: F. Nietzsche, "Der Wille zur Macht. Wersucht einer Umwerthung aller Werthe", 1906/1911. Contains also interesting comments about old cuckoos.CONSILIA library heidi@consilia.com 05/17/01 10:54 AM maturity Today, it's the Italian president Ciampi: "Italians voted with maturity".2001 05 15 the power of collective myths... does it exist? really? ozy miani@consilia.com 05/15/01 11:18 AM the power of collective myths... does it exist? really? Anybody who is ready to include a line about the economic and financial effect of Masako's pregnancy in his comments or strategies about Japan...... will please (if he is old enough) go back to 1993 and to the presumed "galvanizating" effect of Naruhito's marriage? What happened then? why? etc etc.This morning only I received 3 papers about the "moral" effect of the long-awaited child. On birth rates, on demography, retirement accounts, public debt and baby-supply producers, etc etc.Yesterday Beny suggested something about the geopolitical effect of Japan disengaging from tribalism and collectivistic nationalism. It could be more interesting than waiting for the grand-grandson of the Gods to stop deflation with his first *burp*.2001 05 16 forex tech + macro ozy + igor analyst@consilia.com 05/16/01 2:47 PM forex tech + macro gold recovering 270 after FED cut 2.5 points. 5 wasted months. now monitor 270/273 for confirmation of 1) usd/jpy stabilization [look at AUD/NZD/CAD + KRW] 2) yen and dollar reflation 3) eur/yen amd eur/usd floor.ozy + igor analyst@consilia.com 05/17/01 11:29 AM forex tech + macro gold struggling at 273 but on track. the confirmation by gold is part of the explanation for the "delayed" rally on US equities. mkts need real reflation of dollar and yen, and gold finally rallying is NOT a bad inflationary omen for FED intervention, but the first modest signal that, against its own will, FED is finally accomplishing something concrete. Is this enough to support a stock market rally? nope. stock markets didn't "bottom" yet. And: forex reaction is not yet on the right track. usd/jpy still unstable, yen/eur not yet on a downtrend (hence eur still flat/weak vs usd).On stock markets: flat positions, wait for exhaustion signals for new shorts.2001 05 17 Ode to a trader Thud McGuffin 05/17/01 3:41 AM Ode to a trader So there goes ShapsHe made his money and ranPerhaps Thud McGuffin 05/17/01 3:57 AM RE: Ode to a trader Shapo Shapowhere did you go?were you short were you long?take your employers for a song?this man asks for he is now boredwere your fingers on the Lehman keyboard?ozy miani@consilia.com 05/19/01 3:26 PM get a life thud: what about getting a life?let me be more specific: what about discussing the CONTENT of shapo's imbecile rants (god knows if there's stuff for fun in them), instead of just considering the possession of a bbg address like a sign of existence (or lack of)?these pages are not about character assasination. especially when assassination is not needed (buddhists are character suicides). 2001 05 19 Russia benny admiral@consilia.com 05/19/01 5:00 PM Russia 1) Russia trying to come back in the Middle East scenario;2) the first ones to give it credit: Eurolanders;3) Eastward expansion of European Union, linked to the Jewish question.4) First victim: rule of law and sound money IN Euroland and IN Russia.Again and again and again and again and again and again and again...CONSILIA library miani@consilia.com 05/20/01 10:56 AM Russia and Euro About "Euro and Russia" (both economically and geopolitically), I strongly recommend the beautiful book by John Laughland, "The Tainted Source" (Little, Brown & Co, 1997. Chapter VI includes also documents and fine analysis about Russia and its involvement Middle East and Central Asia. 2001 05 21 Gold inflation or stabilization of the monetary system? CONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 05/21/01 11:52 AM Gold: inflation or stabilization of the monetary system? For comments about gold's recent moves, contact analyst@consilia.com. Complimentary papers available.benny admin@consilia.com 05/29/01 7:27 PM what about conspiracy theories? got some funny conspiracy theories for you. among them, something about Bart shorting gold. I am checking the story. I want to know if Elvis is involved too.2001 05 25 Consilia Consirium and Lottomatica ozy miani@consilia.com 05/25/01 4:44 PM Consilia, Consirium and Lottomatica ha! caught with our hands in the cookie jar!Lottomatica won the license to manage the Italian "ejaculatio praecox" lotteries. The "Consirium" (plural "Consiria") group, which includes G-tech, failed to win the license.Coincidence? I think not.That would explain why we were so bitter about Lottomatica.2001 05 25 The europhile Wall Street Journal again...ozy miani@consilia.com 05/25/01 1:41 PM The europhile "Wall Street Journal", again... From: Ozy Miani / CONSILIA GroupTo: The Wall Street Journal editorial pageDear Sirs,your column today "Answer to Thatcher on Euro" misses the point. Unfortunately, I think that the whole position of WSJ on the Euro shares the same misunderstanding.You praise Margaret Thatcher for her accomplishments, and call her wrong just about the Euro. Like it was some kind of senile nostalgy for a juvenile lost battle. It's neither. Thatcher's position on the Euro has been one of the few examples of mature politic thought in Europe over the last decades. Exactly like were her ideas about Russia, Germany, defense, energy, rule of law, and the socialist bias of Europe.Thatcher's accomplishments have been UNIQUE in recent European history BECAUSE she went back to the basics of capitalism. She succeded for THIS reason. Among the basics of capitalism, there is sounf money. Among the basics of anticapitalism, there is money debasement. Euro was designed and created as a TOOL of money debasement by quarreling politicians whose priority are anticapitalist. The forced devaluation of the Euro, the massive gold sales, the messy procedure of appointments and decisions at the head of ECB, are ALL symptoms of BASIC anticapitalist flaws in Euro's design. And a anticapitalist government or multinational organization has NEVER defended freedom.I think THIS is what Margaret Thatcher is NOT capable of forgetting, and is not capable to keep mum about. And that's why she insists in her "error" of considering Euro a POLITICAL indicator. And a terrifying one.Thanks to her, once more, for what she did and for what she says NOW.Regards.DB savanamgt@bloomberg.net 05/29/01 11:38 AM RE: The europhile Correct as concerns euro, but the ironlady once defined Pik Botha (former ruler of South Africa)a nice person. Pik supported apartheid and opposed strongly any reform. Thatcher may be a good defender of capitalism, but if the capitalism she had in mind was the south-african type, i say "no thanks"OZYMIANI miani@consilia.com 05/30/01 12:18 AM Thatcher-bashing and european crimes 0) a little context, some facts, and some proportion. Thatcher didn't rule South Africa. She didn't rule Chile either. Last time I checked, she overtrew fascists in Argentina and started a domino changing political conditions in half of Latin America. Check the results produced in Africa, Latin America, Asia and eastern Europe by the people that Thatcher was busy fighting, and you will find that Botha, who lost his power without a war, is not the worst of evils the world had to endure in those years. "Nice man"? Uhm... send me the paper clip, please.Of course it is easier to be friends and to spend nice words in favour of Dalai Lama, Mandela, etc etc... But the leftist politician didn't support THESE people while Thatcher was premier. They supported Khomeini and Chernenko. NOW, years AFTER, they tell the tale they spent their Saturdays evenings at Olof Palme's mansion, talking peace and love. European history tells a different tale.1) there are not several kinds of capitalism. And all the "different kinds of capitalism" until now became eventually socialism. The most recent case is Euroland. Thatcher faced a still rampant Soviet Union, and had to share the burden of keeping Europe free with a bunch of Munich-style puppets and crooks (Mitterrand, Kohl, etc). She ended keeping the burden, the others kept Europe.I already heard too many times eurolanders saying "no, thanks" to "THAT kind [pronounce "thaaaat", almost barfing the "a"] of capitalism", "EXTREME kinds of capitalism", "a wild capitalism which allowed war and violence": they eventually resort to socialism.3) you cannot argue that capitalism as defended by Thatcher has been similar to what economy has been in South Africa for decades, and to what it is today (and tomorrow...).I would never trade England, even after the last dumb decade, for South Africa.So, smearing Thatcher with South Africa is a nice way to forget both Thatcher's successes and South Africa's failures.4) apartheid flourished over 30 years of british socialist or liberal-socialist governments, and ended while a tory government was in power. That's the old story of right-wing authoritarian regimes being outvoted sooner or later, and left-wing authoritarian regimes never losing power other than through a war. [Please note thta, as a former pupil of prof. Sternhell, I don't consider Nazism a right-wing regime, but a socialist+nationalist one).5) I will not discuss here the fact (which on the other hand is crucial) that europeans, who are still busy killing each other in the Balkans thanks to "communism-meeting-german-geopolitics", should shut their fucking mouths when racism, violence and dictatorship are involved.5) lack of careful thought on what Europe has been over the last 50 years (from the red decade through the 70s down to Maastricht) shows its effect dramatically whenever emotional propaganda about "European values" and presumed "European moral superiority" is challenged. Thatcher challenged (and still does) the right of european bleeding hearts to judge the West, capitalism, America, according to presumed "specif european values". That's why eurolanders still can't tolerate her.2) thatcher-phobia in Euroland (especially among well-fed state-, province- or church-controlled bankers) uses the old communist trick of character assassination through charges of racism, or of friendship with racists, or tolerance towards racists, or smokers, paedophiles, mafiosi or whatever.It is always assumed that bad people have always been on "that" side. Which is simply false.This kind of moralists never mention what the leaders of the left did in the meantime. The most serene and peaceful italian christian-democrats shaked hands with Qadafi, Khomeini, Pol Pot. Sold them weapons. Helped them to kill the thousands, the tens of thousand, the hundreds of thousands. Not to mention the extreme left. You maybe are too young to remember European comments about Tian An Men Square slaughters. And Thatcher's. You would not use cheap propaganda so easily.Easy forgetfulness of all of the above makes the litany of exorcisms of "racism, hate, unequality" by european bleeding hearts definitely pathetic.Meaning what? That politicians who slaughter and destroy law, democracy, representation and wealth and to be condoned if they are on the "right" side when "racism" is concerned. And that a politician who gave back money and power to workers and producers must be smeared because she didn't expell the South African ambassador? Did Italy expell him? Did France? Who FORCED abolitoon of apartheid? What forces? What events? The tears of the European bleeding hearts?Or the bankrupt of communism, which eased the geopolitical pressure on the strategic area of the Cape?You better follow my advice, drop the bromides, read AT LEAST the book by John Laughland about Europe, and discuss that (Europe vs Rule of law), and discuss the issues on their merit.One book. Just one. Take a weekend off internet, take a break from free-association and link-metonimia and read one book. Cover to cover. Learning politics and history by reading italian weekly magazines and watching TV will lead you nowhere.CONSILIA library ozy@consilia.com 05/30/01 1:24 PM RE: Thatcher-bashing and european crimes Documents and facts:read M. Thatcher, "The Downing Street Years", HarperCollins 1993, especially from p.512, ref: the reasons of Thatcher's decision to meet Pik Botha, her supporto for Mandela's release, and the issue of capitalism in South Africa.Will not comment it before you read it: you have got enough digests for this life.But if you find the "nice guy" part there, please underline the paragraph and post it here.db savanamgt@bloomberg.net 05/30/01 3:37 PM RE: RE: Thatcher-bashing and european crimes The Guardian (UK Daily) - 4th March 2001Although all the major exporting countries had a policy of not selling oil to South Africa, Britain under Margaret Thatcher took the lead in resisting any stronger action in the UN security council and in the Commonwealth, which included Brunei. Mrs Thatcher considered Nelson Mandela, then incarcerated on Robben Island, a terrorist and Young Conservatives campaigned for the future president of South Africa to be hanged. Daily Mail & Guardian (South African daily) - January 10, 2000Mr Mbeki's office was baffled yesterday when Margaret Thatcher insisted on paying him a "courtesy call". Mrs Thatcher is in South Africa to see her son, Mark. Mr Mandela once said "let bygones be bygones" when asked about the former prime minister's description of the ANC as terrorists. About the debate of UN on sanctions against South Africa for its apartheid ruleThe UK and US positions were one of "constructive engagement" i.e., they were premised on the basis that it would be easier to persuade South Africa to moderate its policies by persuasion rather than by sanction. Margaret Thatcher is famous for having declared that if anyone thought there would be black majority rule in South Africa, they were "living in cloud cuckoo land". Last time I checked Thatcher sent warships to the Falklands AFTER the argentinian generals invaded the isle. Far from "overthrowing the fascists" - that was a byproduct.Last time I checked Thatcher uttered her admiration for General Pinochet. When I attack Thatcher, I do it on the basis of what she said and did. I don't support my argument by using other people statements or actions. Therefore, defending Thatcher by saying that leftist politicians of Europe are even worse, doesn't increase her "standing". You know that I'm always complaining about the behavior of Europeans politicians, as concerns their views on Usa, defence, socialistic attitude. But the cold war is over. There is non need to support Thatcher at all costs in order to defend capitalism. We can defend capitalistic ideas and criticize Thatcher. Yeah yeah...I know....now you will bring out the matter of "realpolitik". Well, you know one thing? Maybe those blacks in the townships with their "passes" didn't give a damn of who was going to rule the world. When you are behind a fence, it doesn't make much difference.Regards OZYMIANI miani@consilia.com 05/30/01 5:02 PM Thatcher-phobia and wishful thinking more and more paper clips from the Guardian, mistaken for FACTS. Which they are not.Did you read the account about the relations between Thatcher and Botha, before answering? No, you had not the time. Reading and checking facts takes time.You are quoting a newspaper (Guardian!) that writes TODAY, and refers to PAST events without really investigating them.The quotes about "cuckoo land" are "famous" only to the journalist of the "Guardian". So, when you say you attack Thatcher "on the basis of what she said", you are attacking her on the basis of what "The Guardian" says.What happened in the past is read through the lenses of TODAYS opinion of the "Guardian".On the contrary, there is a lot of diplomatic material concerning the pressures Thatcher did on South Africa regarding STRUCTURAL change and HUMAN RIGHTS. She pressure Botha for the Mandela release years before he was released.You may perhaps read Thatcher writing of a "rigid and ossified South African government", incapable of seeing the future of its country. Did you read this? Of course she didn't follow the same path which was suggested by her oppositors. Who, on the other hand, didn't get such wonderful results with their strategies in the rest of Africa. Neither did they in South Africa in the 30 previous years.It is really disappointing that any reference to the opportunity of studying books instead of taking for granted any newspaper reports, upsets you.You were NEITHER in a township at that time, NOR involved in diplomacy. So you don't have the moral authority of speaking for people of the townships, NOR the authority of those who were active in diplomacy on the cold war front. THIS is why I suggest you at least EARN some credibility by studying, before gobbling more newspaper clips.Am I asking too much?Finally: Thatcher stopped the Argentinean Junta when the generals displayed their aggressivity invading the Falklands. WHEN was she supposed to intervene? Was England supposed to attack Argentina to oust its Junta on the basis on "human rights violations"? Would that have been correct? Democratic? I think not. As for your positions towards European politicians: it is gut feeling. Mixed feelings. Without a rational thinking, I don't see why I should consider it a "proof" of the rationality of your political position. Political thinking needs to think thoroughly causes and consequences. On the contrary, you abstract yourself from the constraints of causes and consequences, and propose "different" results for events. Wishful thinking. And your wishful thinking would have NEVER been able to force South Africa out of apartheid during the Cold War.In the end: of course it would be simpler for me to appease you. To tell you that the world is bad, and that all your desires could be satisfied, and that you can deal with people doing only things suitable to your refined palate. That way, I would avoid at least being called a "fascist". Which is absurd.2001 05 27 Forex and central bank intervention CONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 05/27/01 3:28 PM Forex and central bank intervention For a chat or papers on the current state of G3 central bank "coordination" and interventions, mail analyst@consilia.comThud McGuffin 05/29/01 5:16 AM RE: Forex and central bank intervention Ozy, why do you not post your thoughts here? It seems to me that the big problems you were scared about on b/berg chat are about to come home to roost. I have just got a new job...... looking forward to tucking my feet under a new table. Taking a pay cut.... but I think job security is about to come back into fashion.Thuddiekinsozy miani@consilia.com 05/29/01 9:46 AM My thoughts I post my thoughts here, pseudo-Thud. It seems to me that I posted a lot of them. But analyses and trading advice are for clients only, or available upon request by prospective clients. Consilia is not in the business of giving away ideas for free.On the other hand, I am happy to TRADE ideas, for example whem someone posts his comments here or in chat: I will openly discuss them. In that case it's not for free: it's an exchange. ref: discussions with raman and savana about monetary policy.But, for example, you never START a debate: you just wait for comments by somebody else, feeling free to comment them at leisure. And this is either 1) a platonian-socratic dialogic and psychoterapeutic approach to debate, or 2) lack of ideas.Am I in the business of psychoterapy or of feeding deplete minds? No, I am not.2001 06 02 Lottomatica 3ozy miani@consilia.com 06/02/01 3:38 PM Lottomatica / 3 You don't tell me!Failure to rise money through Lotto is one of the main concurrents in last italian budget's hole.Miss Hercenberg: next time Mr. "Context" visits us, please remember me to explain him what a metaphor is, and what's a metonymy. 2001 06 03 Tel Aviv bombing and Russia Benny admiral@consilia.com 06/03/01 1:53 PM Tel Aviv bombing and Russia Hint. jihad islamiya targets RUSSIAN clubs in Tel Aviv. Why? History + demography + external pressures. Discussion open.2001 06 09 British Pount, Irish Punt, Euro and politics igor + ozy analyst@consilia.com 06/09/01 1:10 PM British Pount, Irish Punt [?!?], Euro and politics A report on UK and Irish politics, Euro and EU will be included in the usual forex report available to clients in the restricted area of this website on sunday afternoon.Complimentary copies will be available to prospective clients: please mail sales@consilia.com.ofele fa l to meste reader analyst@consilia.com 12/31/00 12:09 AM ofele' fa' 'l to meste' schizophrenia and paranoia have two basically different logical structures. their approach to mathematics and to money is completely different. hence, a definition like "paranoid schizophrenic" suits only to journalism, not to research. Missing the difference btw the two means understanding almost nothing about "finite/infinite" in human cognition. bibliographic reference: p.87 of the 2000 mcgraw hill hardcover edition. chocolat lint no_frogalectuals_please@hotmail.com 02/15/01 7:36 PM RE: ofele' fa' 'l to meste' ok.wipe the chocolate of your face.how does your statement further the process of analysing a hedge fund or an investment manager (the context from which your statement was taken)?you will find that taken by it self and out of that context your "correction" does absolutely two things: diddle and squat. or to put it in football terms; knowledge 0: obscurantism 2.not that i don't mind critism, actually it is very welcome! but i do like it relevant,professional and to the point.as to the definition of mestie? could an activity that last year brought in many millions of US dollars ( the analysis of funds) not be considered as a mestie? what pray tell, o high wizard, is the appropiate definition of such and activity and how does one describe ignorance/stupidity/arrogance/folly/narrow-mindedness that generates such "scientific rationality"?enquiring minds look forward to an elucidation from the heights of your knowledge, o wise one!ozy miani@consilia.com Date / Time: 05/30/01 1:48 PM Subject: ofele' fa' 'l to meste' Hello Slavina.I didn't notice your posting until today. Sorry for the delay.I will respect your desire for anonymity. I understand it. If I wrote a book like yours, I would desire anonymity too.This is one of the reasons why I didn't wrote a full review of your book, and just underlined a couple of excerpts. I was not discussing hedge fund industry (you are NOT the hedge fund industry as a whole, thanks god, nor you represent it). I took a couple of excerpts that seemed to me relevant because we had just discussed, few days before my postings, your boasting of scientific knowledge.Your answer doesn't defuse my criticism.Your book is fuzzy.You want me NOT to take what you say at its literal meaning. You say that a function is not a function, a proxy is not a proxy, luck is randomness, black is white, plato is aristotle, schizophrenia is paranoia (they have OPPOSITE mental structures: it's Nietzsche versus Hegel). You say that words have no meaning except the one you want them to have. According to what? According to SOMETHING else you said ELSEWHERE. You never come to saying what you say, you always say "something else": welcome, mr Lacan, welcome, mr Derrida, welcome, mr "I read just one philosophy book, and it was french and chino-phile" (speaking of Ideograms here, not of dogs). Oh lala, a calembour! Did you like it, monsieur le structuraliste?This perpetual metonimia is wonderfully summarised when you say that I took your quotes "out of context". But I was not reviewing your book within a discussion about hedge funds: I was READING it for myself within a debate about logic.So, I chose phrases which were PERFECTLY in context.And your emphasis on "context" is the most frogallectual thesis I ever heard. It's perfectly France-late-seventies bullshit. You avoid rigour, and hope for the "whole text" to provide the meaning of each word. Boy, you are a Bartesian. Drop the "frog leg" thing, because your are shooting in your frog foot.Last but not least: as far as "meste", I quoted a Milanese proverb. It is an invitation to stick to your field of knowledge. "Meste" is not derogatory. If you think "business" is a derogatory term, you have got a problem man. But all you write shows you have got that problem. I think that, like most of "terroni" who studied in Bocconi hoping to become a business lawyer or a money manager (both way, a parasite of industry), you simply failed to grasp something essential.It is very sad the Bocconi University lost, years ago, the spirit of its founder. Who was a man of "meste".ofele fa l to meste part II the reader analyst@consilia.com 12/31/00 12:12 AM ofele' fa' 'l to meste', part II "luck" as a function of "randomness"? You must be kidding. (ibid., pp.88/89) bernoulli 2 gauss 0 , bayes 4 bernoulli 0, aristotle 1 bayes 002/09/01 7:22 PM RE: ofele' fa' 'l to meste', part II a cynic, i'm told is a person who knows the price of every thing and the value of nothing.case in point :1) your jeering quote is incorrect and out of context.luck is not a mathematical function of randomness,randomness of returns can be taken as a proxy for luckif you don't know or understand the differencebetween proxy and function in a mathematical/logicalstatement maybe you should try and point the loaded end of that trade ticket away from your wallet. may i suggest some basic reading OEd (any version)and look up Proxy, function, luck, idiot, variable, random, statistics,cretindistribution, probabiltly and moron. i think you might actually get an education no based on the cabbalistic mutterings of deadwhite frogs.life is too short to wallow in ignorance(10 dollars if you get the quote source)> > "luck" as a function of "randomness"? You must be kidding. (> ibid., pp.88/89) & so again NDX 1000 any comments Raman 04/03/01 1:52 PM & so again NDX 1000 any comments ozy [+ igor's tech references] analyst@consilia.com 04/03/01 3:03 PM RE: & so again NDX 1000 any comments yes: see my previous comment: mkt (not only ndx, but dow, nky, spxf etc) is testing the watershed levels btw a full fledged crash and a slow bear market. This allowed ndx to slide further. I still think you need dow crashing under 9700 and spxf in free fall to bring ndx 1000 soon. [to be clear: in the meantime, ndx is "just" falling. The question is: right down to 1000/500 OR a bear market including bounces, right? I say "slow bear"]specifically, nasdaq composite lost his last contact with 2000 last week, and this was a final confirmation of comp losing its residual link with the "slow bear market" 2200/2800 band. dow and spxf didn't confirm yet. So this allows ndx to fake bounces towards 2000 (in case of euphoria, look for 2200. stay short, square when your "system" or whatever says to square, sell 2000 first with tight stops and heavily short 2200). Use SPXF and Dow as oscillators (around 10000 and 145/150) in order to distinguish crashes from slow falls and bounces from rallys.Ie (now jow will hit me): spxf holding 148 is not a crash signal yet. when it bounced from 130 it was a no-crash signal (not a buy one); and so on. No direct correlation btw spxf MOVES and NDX direction. Use the former as an oscillator and the latter as a directional. I understand this is a bit difficult for the imbecile friend of jason shapiro who daily visits our chat (and who still clings to banks because they "outperform"), but the sad truth is that worked since 1999.All this, until fundamentals change. hehe.As for the macro scenario this involves: institutional interventions tried to halt nky slide, but the deflation case is running wild: forex scenario is not any better than it was when we last discussed it. In short: it's still slow and durable bear market, with forex and commodities adding pressure. BUT this added pressure doesn't help a "quick" crash solution.The paradox is: graver global conditions don't increase the likelyhood of a quick crash. They just warrant a deeper and longer bear.A death of thousand knives, then.ozy miani@consilia.com 04/03/01 8:46 PM now or later? uhm... well... spxf sub 145 after all... but above 142...[*thump!* that was joe hitting me]; dow still just a day off 9700...it's like 99 analysts jumping through the windows: a good startand I still hold to the slow bear story.in the meantime: forex trying to escape the worst (=usd/gold slowing: a vague hint by yen/eur: don't trust it yet; usd/dem above 2.15 is still bad). sit tight.come on...Berkeley Square risks to sink ozy miani@consilia.com 04/22/01 11:45 AM Berkeley Square risks to sink Red alert!Prince Alwaleed bought Berkeley Square.Considering he is the man who bought Amazon.com at 80+, prudence may suggest to carefully avoid the site, just in case the square decides to sink (... er... better: "to correct its previous excesses").Cluelessness Consilia library heidi@consilia.com 05/12/01 1:29 PM Cluelessness There are no stupid questions.But there are a lot of inquisitive idiots.Lottomatica, amoebas and fractals ozy miani@consilia.com 05/11/01 1:48 PM Lottomatica, amoebas and fractals Read the prospectus.Basically, we are talking about the floating of a tax collector [ask heidi@consilia.com for a copy of my researchpapers about "lotto" and fractals, in the early 90s].So, Lottomatica shares are presumed to be as strong and sure as a BTP, and have all the technological content of a porn-website self-referential search engine.In this regard, this IPO seems to have both the magic appeal of an econophysics pet, and the sound-money strenght of a government agency.How could I not recommend it?It will give some volatility to a conservative bond portofolio, and will ballast a speculative one.Strong buy, hold forever, hold tight.webmaster heidi@consilia.com 05/11/01 9:57 PM Note for readers As happens every three or four months, Dogshit Anonymous saw a posting by Ozy. He didn't read it, he fired without aiming. And he got it wrong. Then, when exposed. He tried to get away by answering in private. And finally, when cornered, went ballistic. Enjoy the reading.randy waterhouse dogandfools@hotmail.com 05/11/01 7:57 PM RE: Lottomatica, amoebas and fractals boy that sounds impressive!but what is the transaltion, in intelligible english, please?does it mean sould i not buy buy what olivetti is selling? aka if its such a good deal why is the hopa gang selling to the hoipolloi? or are we just supposed to admire the desity of obfuscation and words per line?btw compare financial proforma's and valuations btween gtech and lottomatica. btw2 lottomaticais not a tax collector per se its an AGENT for the taxing entity (as is gtech) one of those minorniggeling details that seperate brilliance from bs.still, we agree, a dog is a dog is a dog and a dog by any other name will never smell that sweet (willingly misquoted with no shame)Arf, arfozy miani@consilia.com 05/11/01 8:34 PM mad dogs, englishmen and amoebae If you can't understand what "buy and hold FOREVER" means, and if you need a translation for "hold tight", I definitely can't help you, Lassie.Next: a tax collector is an agent for the taxing authority, he is not the taxing authority itself. Ever heard of one St Mathew? [This is for Jude and Wayne: see? recent theological discussions almost convinced me. I would make one hell of a Christian if I tried. Hold on, sit tight near the phone. I'll tell you when the time is ripe].Next: is it so obvious that state lottery is a form of taxation? It is for me. It certainly is for you, genius. It is not in Lottomatica's prospect nor was emphasized in their roadshow. Not that you must feel obliged to read those papers (even if THIS was the object of my comment). They included car tax collection as one of brightest business prospects for Lottomatica. Is this the same business as GTK is running?Next. Does your portfolio needs "ballast"? Your choice. If you need some weight to keep your portfolio (and your head) nailed to this earth, may I strongly suggest you two copies of latest edition of Webster's Dictionary? You could use one, next time, before - indeed - "confusing brilliance and dogshit" (or godshit, with reference to Jude, Wayne and Mathew).randy waterhouse dogandfools@hotmail.com 05/11/01 9:28 PM RE: mad dogs, englishmen and amoebae for gravitas,in non portfolio matters, use oed not webster. still it's instructive to look up sovreign, collector and agent in any dictionary.it helps to keeps the parts straight, if you reallycan restrain that deconstruct instinct in favour of clear thinking.with the central premise of the rebutal disposed, and the consensus that lottomaticais a goodbye in monetary terms. there is really not more more to say.slavina the dog-shitter dongandfools@hotmail.com 05/11/01 9:27 PM The reply I didn't dare to post publicly (dog or chicken?) old habits never die i see; if you can dazzle then baffle. the sovreign is the taxing authority, the collector is the lottery, lottomatica is the agent for the collector. simple logic: warm fuzzy thinking. as for the rest. buy gtech (or of that ilk) short lottomatica, a beautiful pairs trade.you will note i did not request you paper on fractals and lotteries . i know better.as for the amoeba and english men, well none here!btw only neweconomy ignoramuses use webster's dictionary, if you need gvavitas in non portfolio matters keep it in mind.ozy miani@consilia.com 05/11/01 9:29 PM Bocconi and Cagnoni, 'na massa de cojoni well, I began my day suggesting sarcastically not to buy lottomatica. I end my day listening to you suggesting the same thing, but insulting me for doing it.true: the old habits don't die. You are an imbecile.ozy miani@consilia.com 05/11/01 9:32 PM oh, between the sovereign is the taxing authority,the lottery is the tax lottomatica is the tax collector having been delegated the whole tax-collecting apparatus.Again: imbecile.randywaterhouse 05/11/01 9:34 PM RE: oh, between you file your tax forms on a lottomatica machine? ozy miani@consilia.com 05/11/01 9:37 PM let's explain the guy how lotteries work let me explain to you:1 million people pay 1 dollar for the lotterythe state takes half of it, gives a percentage to lottomaticathe other half is the prizes.the withdrawn half is a TAX.I don't pay taxes at a lottomatica machine because I don't play lotteries.Imbecile.randy 05/11/01 9:46 PM RE: let's explain the guy how lotteries work to err is human to persist is diabolical.sovreign says i need money===> taxesthe may i sovreign collect taxes are things like: vat, consumption tax, wage tax profit tax and yes lottery those things and those people and entitiesthat are responsible for enforcing are the collectorsthe people who act on wehalf of the collectors : ie ins, irs, and lotto matica re agents.proof try calling an ins or irs agent collecors and seewhat happens in you audittsk tskgo to bed mon p'tit pauvre.ozy miani@consilia.com 05/11/01 9:52 PM again: let's try to explain the guy how taxes work Lottery is a hidden tax (just like inflation induced by public debt is one).Lottery is a tax on misery and ignorance. It is the best exemple of the ESSENCE of arbitrary taxes.Lottomatica is then a tax collector, WITHOUT the (modest) accountability which belong to the IRS man. who, at least, declares is is collecting a tax.Reduce intoxicating doses, forget your Bocchini studies and start reading something serious about economics. Imbecileozy miani@consilia.com 05/12/01 1:22 PM amoebae, lotteries and thought The reference to amoebae concerned A.K. Dewdney's FLIBs. For studies about lottery results, FLIBs and financial market forecasting, see Dewdney's bibliography. And mine.On the other hand, all a dog needs to know about amoebae is: "no problem, go on drinking from the toilet bowl: you will find plenty of places around to drop your shit".But not here, thanks.love is a many splendored thing ozy miani@consilia.com 04/04/01 10:45 AM love is a many splendored thing What about this: Mr Bong Bong's column this morning is dedicated to his love: "Lower Lows".Bong Bong, Low Low, Chow Chow... Michelin / Concorde veronica hushhush@consilia.com 04/27/01 12:34 PM Michelin / Concorde Ozy will separately entertain you on the Euro/USA new-concorde new-jumbo controversy.Me, I'd just like to stress some interesting details:1) Concorde burnt and fell because a Michelin tyre blew off. Fact.2) Concorde test flights were stopped until Michelin won its first Formula 1 Grand Prix. 3) The Concorde fly tests with Michelin tyres resumed the day after Ralph Schumacher won in Imola the first F1 Grand Priz with Michelin tyres. Coincidence? I think not.4) The tests in Imola unfortunately proved only that Michelin tyres can RUN. Now, a new problem is seriously harming the resumption of the Concorde program.6) the Alboreto test with Michelin tyres in Lausitzring in fact proved that Michelin tyres CAN effectively assist the TAKE-OFF. The takeoff was perfect.But the tyres performed poorly in the LANDING phase.I think that this could be anothere important variable in the debate about Concorde, and the "high-speed, light load" vs "low speed - heavy load" civil aviation debate.Mike the Bike would love this consilia library heidi@consilia.com 04/04/01 8:23 PM Mike the Bike would love this Quote from Fox News, april 4th, 2001Authors: Cherie Grzech and Steve BrownWOODBURY, Minn. - A Minnesota teen-ager told he couldn't wear a sweatshirt with the words "Straight Pride" on it because it was offensive to some students at a public high school has sued the school district in federal court claiming his free speech rights were violated.Elliott Chambers, a 16-year-old student at Woodbury High School outside St. Paul, says he was called into the school principal's office in January and told the shirt was not allowed in school because it was offensive to gay, lesbian and bisexual students.The sweatshirt carried the trademarked logo "Straight Pride" on the front, and the stick-figure symbols of a man and woman holding hands on the back."A student actually approached me and she said she was offended by my shirt and some of her friends were offended by the shirt and she didn't want me to wear it anymore," Chambers told Fox News. "She said if I continued to wear it, she would go to the principal and he would deal with me."The principal told Chambers he couldn't wear the shirt "because of the recent racial violence at our school, and that it might incite straight-versus-homosexual violence," he recalled.Officials at the school district have declined to comment on the case other than to say principal Dana Babbitt, a co-defendant in the case, was trying to keep his school safe.In wearing the shirt, Chambers said he did not intend to insult anyone. "It's not meant to bash gays or anything like that at all," he said. "It's just a simple shirt that says 'Hey...I have pride in being straight.'"But others at the school interpreted it differently.Paula Borochoff, a special education teacher, told Fox News that the shirt is a form of harassment that should be banned. The language makes gay or lesbian students, or those with gay or lesbian family members, uncomfortable, she said."It's just like kids can't wear racially unethical things or they can't come to school with sweatshirts that advertise beer," Borochoff said. "I think that in order to make the school comfortable for everybody, school principals have an obligation to ban things like that that are hurtful to other people."The school attempts to foster an atmosphere of tolerance by displaying inverted pink triangles around designated "safe" areas of the school. The "safe" areas are set aside for student/teacher discussion and counseling regarding homosexuality and other non-traditional relationships.joe melli@consilia.com 04/04/01 8:30 PM Babbit? The name of the principal is "Babbit"? "Babbit" as in "Babbit"? Are you sure it is not a typo? Babbit.Dana Babbit.Sounds fine.Shorter than - say - "Lorena Babbit".Mikey B and Slick Willie Veronica-Lynn hushhush@consilia.com 04/02/01 11:24 PM Mikey B. and Slick Willie They ask to one man to define what sex is. He answers: "it depends on what your definition of 'is' is".Another man is faced with people talking about sex, and says "I don't know why they use such dirty words. One word is worth another".Apart from some evident influence by the worst XX century linguistic theories, what else may these two men have in common?No, silly man: it's not a "political future in NYC". Try again...ozy miani@consilia.com 04/02/01 11:46 PM Mikey B. and Slick Willie are you trying to suggest that they both could be in the business of finding new ways to use the words "sex" and "office" in the same sentence? I told you: we faced the best two french semioticians after Derrida and Jerry Lewis. The yahoooo oooing '90s were tailor-made for people like that.thud mcguffin 04/05/01 4:23 AM RE: Mikey B. and Slick Willie EH??????????????hush hush hushhush@consilia.com 04/05/01 3:42 PM Truth, sex, words You don't pay attention to the serious news, Thud. You let Nasquack to distract you too much.That Sanctimonious Man, who was so shocked by the sexual references used in chatlines that he chose to introduce a censorship software, settled a sexual harassment lawsuit (of course, aknowledging NOTHING. But paying for it). This happened some months ago. But what happened in the past few days is that somebody reminded him the problem, and - in order to defuse a time-bomb in his political career - he VOLUNTARILY underwent a lie detector test, administered by a friend who is a former FBI officer. ("Former" as in "former police officer turned thug". More or less the lowest level in moral hyerarchy).The issue at stake is once again the immense hypocrisy of the liberal politically correct establishment. And the funny mix of moralism, perversion and morbid interest for police procedures (especially federal police: ATF, FBI etc), which generated both Janet Reno's monsters and Patricia Caldwell's novels (one hymn to the politically correct police state).Uhm...What kind of truth does this man follow: one which escapes decency (--> harassment)... but seeks refuge in a "lie detector"?[Funny: machines, lies, truth and sexuality. The same ingredients of Turing's saga].ozy miani@consilia.com 04/05/01 3:52 PM Truth, sex, words In other terms ["one word is worth another", after all, isn't it?]: "I NEVER HAD CYBERSEX ON ABBG TERMINAL WITH THAT WOMAN".And "I cyber-swear it".Monetary system ozy miani@consilia.com 04/27/01 12:46 PM Monetary system Hayami gone. Good.Greenspan next, pls.Shell nigeria davide bendinelli dbend@bloomberg.net 04/02/01 5:44 PM shell/nigeria As concerns the Shell/Delta people issue (Delta is one among several states of Nigeria, which is a federation; oil is extraced in the Delta region)I'm collecting:1) The Delta people argument2) The Shell argumentThis will take me a bit of time, so as soon as I've finished the work I will be back with some words about it.For the moment, let me say only one thing: the issue is being debated in USA because there is a law there stating that international issues having to do with human rights may be put on trial there, disregarding the nationality of the parties on trial. A trial against Shell already occurred in 97 in europe, shell won it. Hence a new action against the company in "neutral" territory.One thing should be clear I think. In order to understand the issue, we mustn't confuse Shell role with the nigerian government role. A trial against Shell must be attempted as regards: * Shell aid in providing weapons to the nigerian army* Shell role in polluting the delta regionThe trail mustn't be put on the basis of Shell not providing infrastructures like schools, roads, electrification of the villages. Those infrastructures must be provided by NIgeria, not by Shell. Except if the agreement of oil exploitation includes also the building of roads...etc. In short, let's not confuse nigerian army brutal methods with Shell. davide bendinelli dbend@bloomberg.net 04/05/01 12:22 PM nigerian history To understand better what is at stake in the oil issue, here is a brief summary of nigerian history. It emphasizes the struggle between ethnic groups and the federation concerning the sharing of oil wealth.A brief overview of recent nigerian history: the link between the creation of states and the distribution of oil wealthThe boundaries of the territory now known as Nigeria were first defined in 1907. Nigeria itself was brought for the first time under one government in 1914 by the amalgamation of two British colonial protectorates. Although the country was in theory ruled as a single unit, in practice the northern and southern parts of the country were administered by the British as distinct entities .Only in 1954 did Nigeria became a true federation with a central government, including a Federal House ofRepresentatives (responsible for foreign relations, defense, the police, overall aspects of trade and finance policy, and major transport and communications issues), and three constituent components with a large degree of autonomy in all other matters: the Northern, Western, and Eastern RegionsAt independence, the Western Region was the richest, as a result of the presence of the capital and port of Lagos, cocoa production, and much of the industrial development in Nigeria, as well as early access to education. The Eastern Region, economically dependent on palm oil production, already suffered substantial population pressure on the available land and depended on food imports. The Northern Region was larger in population and area than the other regions combined, but was also the poorest and least educated. In each of these three regions, a majority ethnic group constituted about two-thirds of the population, the Hausa-Fulani in the north, the Yoruba in the west, and the Igbo in the east; the remaining third being made up of various minority groups. In the absence of an indigenous or even colonial tradition of political unity, ethnic loyalties became the dominant force in political organization; as a consequence, the minority groups, of which there may be 250 or more in Nigeria, were in practice politically subordinated to their larger neighbors. The tripartite structure of colonial rule was thus inherited by the new government at independence in 1960, reflecting and reinforcing the political dominance of Nigeria's three major ethnic groups.Minority groups remained convinced that the creation of new states in which they would be majorities would improve their political and economic status. As early as 1963 a new constitution was adopted and the Western Region was divided into two, with the creation of the Mid-West Region, giving autonomous status to the two administrative districts whereYorubas were not in a majority. The first military coup of January 1966, in which northern Prime Minister Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa was killed and which brought Maj.-Gen. Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi, an Igbo, to power saw a brief and disastrous attempt to create a unified state, with the abolition of the federal system. The immediate reaction fromthe north, threatened by the southern dominance that would result from centralized government on a unified basis, resulted in a July counter-coup staged by junior northern army officers, which brought Lt.-Col. (later Gen.) Yakubu Gowon to power at federal level. In May 1967, Gowon announced that the four regions would be abolished and replaced by a new federal system based on twelve states, which sought to address the concerns of minority groups and thus increase their support for the federation, while at the same time breaking down the powers of the regions. The Igbos' loss of central political power was thus exacerbated by the creation in the Niger Delta of Rivers State, which cut off the Igbo heartland from direct access to the sea and gave control of Port Harcourt, an important port at the beginning of its oil boom where there were substantial Igbo commercial interests, to a new state government. Shortly after the announcement of the new state system, in May 1967, the secession of Biafra was declared by the military governor of the former Eastern Region, Lt.-Col. Odumegwu Ojukwu. The civil war of 1967 to 1970, lost by the secessionists, increased the strength of federal government and the centralization of power. The creation of the twelve state system, which came into effect in April 1968, began an (as yet) endless process of alteration to the system of revenue allocation in the federation between central and state governments and among the states. Increasingly, states contributed their revenues to a Distributable Pool Account (DPA) at federal level, shared out on the basis of population, need and other criteria, while the "derivation principle," by which revenues were spent in the geographical area from which they were derived, was downgraded. Federal expenditure came to dominate state expenditure:In 1967, when the new states were created, mining rents and royalties were split 15 percent to the federal government, 35 percent to the DPA, and 50 percent on a derivation basis. From 1971, the federal government introduced a distinction between onshore and offshore rents and royalties, taking 100 percent ofoffshore revenue itselfIn 1975, with the arrival of massively increased oil revenues following the OPEC price rise of 1973, the share of onshore revenue paid to the state of origin was reduced to 20 percent, while the federal government was to pay its entire share of on and offshore revenue into the DPA. In 1979, the derivation principle was dropped altogether in favor of a Special Account for mineral producing areas.The influx of cash placed strong pressures on the government to increase public expenditure in line with increased revenue: total federal expenditure increased by a massive 100 percent in 1974, and doubled again the next year. In contrast to expenditure from taxation receipts, this bonanza from "rental" income brought no political pressures for accountability in the use of public funds; rather, it brought greater demands for money to be spent on patronage without thought as to its best allocation. Following a pattern common to many states dependent on extractive industries for their revenue, the non-oil sector of the economy in Nigeria, including agriculture, was neglected and steadily declined: Nigeria shifted from being an exporter of agricultural products to being a major importer of food. States became increasingly dependent on federal allocations, financial discipline and accounting deteriorated rapidly, and levels of imports and expenditure reached unsustainable levels. In the context of the weak political institutions of a newly independent and deeply divided state, there was little chance that any economiccontrol could be exercised. Politics instead revolved around the "distributive" concerns generated by expenditure of the oil wealth. In July 1975, Gowon was overthrown by a fresh and bloodless coup, which installed the six-month administration of Gen. Murtala Mohammed, before he was killed in an abortive coup attempt and succeeded by his deputy, Lt.-Gen. Olusegun ObasanjoIn February 1976, the Murtala Mohammed government increased the number of states to nineteen, adding four in the north, two in the south west, and one in the south east. In 1979, the Obasanjo regime handed over power to the civilian government of Alhaji Shehu Shagari.The 1979 constitution provided for an executive president, on the U.S. model (by comparison with the parliamentary system of the First Republic), and introduced, for the first time in an explicit way, the concept of the "federal character" of the government, by which was meant the requirement that "there shall be no predominance of persons from a few States or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups in [the federal] government or in any of its agencies." The president was required to appoint at least one minister from each state, and this effectively ethnically-based principle of office-sharing was duplicated at other levels of government. The period of civilian rule saw a loss of power from the federal government to the statesAfter much political debate and conflict, a new formula finally came into effect in 1982, giving the federal government 55 percent, states 30.5 percent, local governments 10 percent, and-in a concession to the demands of the oil rich states since the derivation principle had been abolished in 1979-4.5 percent to be split three ways for the benefit of the oil producing communities (1 percent to respond to the ecological problems caused by oil production, 2 percent to go into the accounts of the mineral-producing states on a derivation principle, and 1.5 percent directly for the development of mineral-producing areas). All revenue from offshore production went to the federal government. The debate around revenue allocation from the center itself generated campaigns for the creation of new states (and new local government areas), as local politicians sought to benefit from the patronage that resulted from distributing revenue at state level. At the same time, financial controls on government spending declined yet further. The government took no steps to guard against future revenue falls by investing abroad or creating an oil stabilization fund. Currency appreciation and domestic inflation made local industries uncompetitive internationally and boosted imports, leading to balance of payments difficulties during oil-induced recessions in 1978-79 and from 1981 until the early 1990s. Expenditure rapidly outpaced income, and, with oil price slumps in the early 1980s, external debt more than doubled from 1980 to 1985. The oil price fell from around U.S.$32 per barrel in 1981 to approximately U.S.$13 per barrel in 1986, and Nigeria's gross national product (GNP) fell from a high of U.S.$99,539 million in 1980 to a low of U.S.$24,341 million in 1987. In the same year, the ratio of debt to GNP reached 112.8 percent. This boom and bust cycle contributed to political instability: in January 1984, military officers again put an end to civilian rule, and installed a fresh military regime under Maj.-Gen. Mohammadu BuhariBuhari in turn was overthrown by Gen. Ibrahim Babangida in August 1985, who early on promised a return to civilian rule. As the transition program was repeatedly extended, and with it the competition for future revenue share and agitation for more states, Babangida raised the number of states by two,to twenty-one, in 1989 and by another nine, to thirty, in 1991In June 1993, the presidential elections which were to be the culmination of the transition program were annulled, when it became clear that Moshood. K.O. Abiola, a Yoruba from the southwest, was going to win. An interim government was put in place, itself overthrown by yet another coup in November 1993, which installed General Sani Abacha in power. In October 1996, General Abacha increased the number of states yet again, to thirty-six, at the same time increasing the number of local government areas by 183 to 776 In July 1998, following the death of Abacha, the new head of state Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar announced that the Abacha transition program would be scrapped. In determining the new ditribution formula, the National Assembly took into account allocation principles especially those of Population, Equality of States, Internal Revenue Generation, Land Mass, Terrain, as well as Population Density, provided that the principle of derivation shall be constantly reflected in any approved formula as being not less than 13 percent of the revenue accruing to the Federation . Although the allocation of 13 percent of oil revenue to the states from which it is derived represent a marked return to earlier patterns of revenue allocation,it is not clear that the allocation would directly benefit the communities in which the oil is produced, rather than the state governments in the oil producing areas, where the money would likely be used for patronage rather than development.The Nigerian political economy has come to depend on a spectacular system of corruption, involving systematic kickbacks for the award of contracts, special bank accounts in the control of the presidency, allocation of oil or refined products to the politically loyal to sell for personal profit, and sweeteners for a whole range of political favors. Decisions relating to oil contracts were hyper-centralized in the president's office to ensure that the benefits involved went only to political supporters. Nigeria's politics revolve about the distribution of the oil money, whether officially (in the form of debates over revenue allocation) or unofficially (as military and civilian politicians seek favor with those in a position to reward them with opportunities to "chop" money from contracts), and as long as the oil flows it will be difficult to overcome this legacy.Since 1999 Obasanjo is back in power, elected in the first democratic election since almost indipendence. Obasanjo is above ethnicity, he's a Yoruba, but he fought against Igbo during Biafra wars. He's not a northenerbut he's well accepted by the North because he's perceived as a president not favouring the South. He's really a federal president, not an ethnic or state president. For teh moment he's still trying to mend the disasters provoked during the Abacha's years. Nigeria is really more democratic compared to a few years ago. Police and the army aren't arrogant and above law as before. Still some problems loom. Igbos are already claiming that next president should be chosen among them, showing that the concept of federation is not penetrating well, and the oil wealth distribution system is under siege. In February 2001 at Lagos University protests by students ended bloodily, with 13 students shot dead by police. These are just a few examples showing that in Nigeria the situation is better but still "hot".ozy miani@consilia.com 04/02/01 5:51 PM shell/nigeria I had your comment reposted here as the start for a new discussion, because the quarrel about ranin55@yahoo.fall was frankly pathetic. I'd have something to say about the "neutral territory" issue, and the separation between the "school-infrastructure" issue and the "military" issue. But I will keep my foul mouth shut for now. We'll leave this space open, waiting for Davide's research and hopefully for some comments by Beny, who's our Empire-fighter in chief (ex Russia and Germany, which are my territory).Singles Petition Dipuc 04/30/01 10:31 PM Singles Petition We would like your help in making Dipuc Day, August 14, a day to celebrate independence not co-dependence, an honorary holiday. Dipuc Day (Cupid spelled backward) is 6 months from Valentine's Day.For years the single population of the United States has looked upon February 14 with dread. It is a day that symbolizes companionship and love, which for many single people is a cruel reminder of what they have yet to find.August 14 is a day for single people to rejoice in their independence and enjoy the company of friends in celebration of who they are instead of to whom they are attached.Dipuc Day is also a day for employees with families to show appreciation for their single co-workers who perhaps covered for them so they could take maternity leave, pick up a sick child or spend the holidays with their family.So please, I beg you, go onto my site (www.dipuc.com) and sign the petition for Dipuc Day. We deserve to have our own special day to celebrate independence not co-dependence, just as much as those who celebrate Valentine's Day.http://www.dipuc.comRaman 05/01/01 10:44 AM RE: Singles Petition P^ss off webmaster heidi@consilia.com 05/02/01 10:36 AM RE: RE: Singles Petition Hello Mr Raman. The boss told be to erase Dipuc'c posting because it is a spam. But I left it here expressly for you.I am sorry it pissed you off.Do you want me to erase it?I'd do it for You.Thud McGuffin 05/03/01 3:12 AM RE: RE: RE: Singles Petition Heidi,I love you.:) Heidi heidi@consilia.com 05/03/01 10:11 AM Singles Why Sir... blush!!! Thud McGuffin 05/04/01 3:45 AM RE: Singles Any lady who can cope with Mr. Miani's outbursts deserves my outmost respect.Yours,"Thuddie" ozy miani@consilia.com 05/04/01 10:06 AM Singles Do you "respect" women, Thuddie?Hu-ho. Thud McGuffin 05/04/01 3:47 AM RE: RE: Singles er.......... that's utmost but the sentiment's the same. THE GREASING OF AMERICA Ranin ranin55@yahoo.com 04/01/01 12:30 PM THE GREASING OF AMERICA Most people agree that under the new administration the gap between rich and poor will widen. The already schrinking middle class may eventually disappear altogether. There are thousands of families that are below poverty level even though both parents work full time jobs for minimum wages. This is particularly a problem in the immigrant community where minimum wage service positions in retail, fast food and restaurants have replaced seasonal agriculture work. Most Midwestern urban areas have experienced a large increase in the immigrant population with sometimes up to 15 people sharing an apartmrnt. Sometimes they will work a 100 hours a week at several of these low paying jobs and send most fthe money back to their respective countries. Their economies benefit, ours doesn't. Wage Slavery does exist in America and it is a little known, but serious problem. There are a couple of excellent books on the subject: 'Fast Food Nation' by Eric Schlosser, an award winning investigative journalist, and 'Out To Lunch' by Walt Crocker, a dark, sometimes funny book that examines the issue from a unique, personal perspective. ozy miani@consilia.com 04/03/01 8:48 AM White trash "most people know"? Most who? But let me keep it brief. That's the intellectual equivalent of white trash. I seriously object to the idea that we should leave postings like that on this forum just because they contain references to books or to issues that in different terms could be of interest. Spamming bromides under the "most people know" banner is no debate. That's a spam posting which appeared on several boards. Ranin wasn't here to reply to comments to his posting. So that's just graffiti. And it is especially irritating because this arrogant use of other people's space comes within weeks from the Horowitz case, where ranin55-like militants couldn't just stand the heat of having their ideas discussed. THAT happens to ...er... "most" people.Ranin narrowly escapes deletion because he signed the message. Not because he is WARRANTED free access anywhere, as he might think ("free" as in "free lunch" I mean, nit "free" as in "freedom").So, will Ranin and anybody interested in the issue under such terms please go elsewhere and debate it?This is true also for the Anonymous who replied to Ranin. Please choose some PC campus and have your dogfight there.All this is just to avoid simply erasing ranin's posting. The truth behind April fool preppmaster 04/04/01 1:50 PM The truth behind April fool Subject: The Truth behind April fool> > Assalam-o-Alaikum,Read this , its about us (the muslims).Most of us> >celebrate April fool day every year and fool each other.Isn't it?But how >many>of us know the bitter facts hidden behind it. It was around a thousand>years>ago that Spain was ruled by Muslims. The Muslim power in Spain was so>strong>that it couldn't be>destroyed. The Christians of the west wished to wipe out Islam from all>parts>of the world and they did succeed to quite an extent. But when they>tried to>eliminate Islam in Spain and conquer it they failed. They tried several>times>but never succeeded.>>The unbelievers then sent their spies in Spain to study the Muslims>there and>find out what was the power they possessed and they found that they were>not>just Muslims but they were practicing Muslims. They not only read the>Quran but>also acted upon it.e.g. the quran said "Alghina o shiddu minaz zina" i.e>Music>is worse than zina. They>also practiced it they said no to Music, they said no to beer wine and>all the>other things forbidden in Islam. If they read about Hijab in the Holy>Quran>they practiced it too unlike most of us today. (Faith without Practice>is disastrous-Hadith), so let us join handsand promise to become true>practicing>Muslims.>>When the Christians found the power of the Muslims they started thinking>of>strategies to break this power. So they started sending alcohols and>cigarettes>to Spain free of cost. This technique of the west worked out and it>started>weakening the faith of the Muslims in particular the young generation of>Spain.>>The result was that the Catholics of the west wiped out Islam and>conquered the>entire Spain bringing an end to the EIGHT HUNDRED LONG RULE OF THE>MUSLIMS in>Spain. The last fall of the Muslims was the Grenada(Ghornata) fall>which was on>the 1st of April. And from that year onwards every year they celebrate>fools>day on the 1st ofApril, that they made the Muslims fool on this day and>we the>Muslims were fooled by the unbelievers on this day which they now>celebrate as>April fool day. Dear brothers and sisters why are we celebrating our own>foolishness,our own downfall, why? The answer is due to ignorance,>right?>None of us knew about it or else we would have never celebrate this day>we would>never have celebrated our own downfall. So now we be aware of it and>now lets>promise that we shall never celebrate this day andshall try to become>practicing>Muslims but never lose our faith like the people of Spain did.ozy miani@consilia.com 04/04/01 3:09 PM The truth behind April fool For the sake of memory of the great years when the Jews and the Moors made Spain great, before Isabela the Bitch slaughtered them both, I'd have something to say:the problem is you muslims are really a bunch of fools.lehitraot, Prepozy miani@consilia.com 04/04/01 3:17 PM more fools [and I will share a secret with you too: swiss gay muslisms are the foolest fools around] UK House prices Raman 04/03/01 6:31 PM UK House prices Any thoughts as to the knock on effects of mkt and potential recession to house prices?Does anyone see a late 1980's heidi heidi@consilia.com 04/03/01 6:54 PM RE: UK House prices I just hope in a Japan-like house price crash. The rent is killing me.ozy miani@consilia.com 04/04/01 1:27 PM love nest the rent? This girls' paycheck is killing ME. US GDP and macro ozy miani@consilia.com 04/27/01 3:14 PM US GDP and macro 1) the paradox is: economy didn't "bottom" in Q1, after all. As somebody said about SOX: "it hit 190 during 1998 slump. It hit a 480 low during april 2001: some bottom!".2) monetary side of GDP+mkt reaction. usd/jpy was finally beginning to get support from gold. The more gold supports yen fall and metal bounce, the better chances are for a reflation of yen and dollar, without severe inflationary risks ("stagflation" said somebody here recently). The difference between reflation and inflation lies in the money/commodities relation. That's where the mindset of FED and BOJ (and of BCE) is crucial.Inverse proof: AUD and NZD hit hard by the long yen rally then paralysis in 1999/2000. then HIT again by usd/jpy bounce LACKING support by gold. Now gold tries to catch up with usd/jpy, and AUD tries to stabilize. Baby steps. Pls try harder: that's the right path.3) news from Japan are interesting. The need to gather public support for "new policies" will make management of yen still more of an issue. May I suggest: aim for real stabilization (i.e.: reflation) instead of bergsten/rubin/sakakibara nominal exchange rate targeting. May I?4) if all of the above is forgotten, Q1 GDP is just another wind-up of the tick-bomb for stock markets and forex alike.ozy miani@consilia.com 04/27/01 3:26 PM RE: US GDP and macro oh, I forgot:is IMF singing the right tune, for once? Nope, it's not. Unfortunately.What's even more unfortunate, is the fact that Dubya's team seems in no hurry to get rid of the devaluation gangsters.USA and global bounce V W S L etc etc ozy miani@consilia.com 04/20/01 1:08 PM USA and global bounce: V, W, S, L etc etc Now it's the time for a interesting test of some ideas I floated in the past few months.1) first test: feedback effect on FED and real rates of a "V" bounce of stock market and of earnings expectations (uhm...);2) attempt at dollar and yen reflation, gold bounce. And its effect on point 1).3) attempt at stopping the fall in CRB and base metals, and its effect on point 1). And how point 2) makes all the difference btw a structural turning point and a bloody mess.4) theories about what Thuud called "stagflation" will be tested at point 1) and 3).Money/gold makes the difference, once again. And money/energy is the passport for trouble.Anibody interested in discussing details and reading comments, please mail me or heidi@consilia.com.what indicator is that fucking Bart following Raman 03/30/01 3:30 PM what indicator is that fucking Bart following any ideasI'm trying to figure the makings of a formula ozy miani@consilia.com 03/31/01 10:33 AM FED's indicators Ok.Let's try to find "the formula".First question is:Why should such a formula exist?I try a better formulation:Why should such a secretive formula exist, which is not available to traders, research, analysts, politicians, households?Why?Is the money Greenspan's?Is this a game? A quiz show?Why an unelected officer should use an unverifiable calculation to convert banknotes's face value into real value?And viceversa, you cannot calculate how FED will respond to real events.The gap between events and response is called "accountability" (or, using the latin derivation of "response", "responsibility).Until you answer to this question, the issue of the relation between FED policy, markets, and economic data cannot be tackled.So, SUBSTANTIAL credibility is directly proportional to the availability of the "formulae" you are dreaming about. And I think that SUBSTANTIAL credibility (which means: NO NEED for credibility, NO NEED to believe, because the Central Bank exposes facts, and you don't have to TRUST the bank beyond reason) is the real issue.This is again the difference between traders and the central bank, and between indicators used by traders and the central bank's "targets":* a trader will be jealous of its "secret" indicators; because they are his way to keep ahead of everybody else, and to outsmart the world; he can be rational, mystic, odd, overquantized, QED-oriented or base his trades on poetry; or the contrary of all this; who cares? he pays the price of his errors. he doesn't unload his shit on the taxpayer or on the economy; he is not even a crook if he lies about his performances, until he lies to a client [those who lie all the time usually lie to clients too, and they lose money, but this is another issue];but:* an accountant who uses "secret" formulas to keep accounts, is a crook: you expect him to use clearly defined accounting criteria; you expect his bottom line to match reality; red or black doesn't matter, it must be the same color as reality;* a central banker who cooks the books and uses secret formulas, refusing to state clearly his targets, is a crook. Stop. No matter what his performance his. He can be a good trader. But he cannot be trusted with signing 100$ bills.The history of central banks is the history of crooks caught with their hands in the cookie jar, and of their excuses: these excuses go from a patronizing tone, to a "future will tell" stories, to obfuscation, to "look at the results" (but you can't verify the books), to "what would you do at my place?", to "we did better than the indonesians (spanish, italians, koreans)", etc etc etc.In short: history of central banks, Greenspan's FED included, is a strong argument for a reform of monetary system A*S*A*P.All this will be more easily understandable when the current crisis is over. But may I discuss it since now, and regulate my trades on this idea?ozy miani@consilia.com 03/31/01 10:54 AM traders and FED's indicators all of the above is the reason why for a trader it makes no sense at all to try "outsmarting" the FED by trying to guess what "Greenspan's indicators" are. It seems to make sense only if you consider yourself to be a peripheral sub-sub-sub-branch of the FED (as many "traders" in fact are). If you are a Venezuelan bank whose business is 99% buying and holding govt bonds until they mature, you are right in thinking like the central banker.But if you are, for exemple, an industrial CEO, facing consumers and suppliers and processes and competitors every day, will you move your money according to data or according to somebody else's secret formulas, which you are forbidden to know and verify? Finding from time to time that the central banker slaps you on the wrist for not marching at the correct pace? "Correct"?Will you keep your dollars, or swap them for yens, or lower dollar sale prices in Korea expecting a won fall, not to lose clients to the local competitors, FOLLOWING a "secret formula" which doesn't take these competitors into account? And should you tolerate your central banker NOT taking them into account?Or will you directly target the reality you face, considering your central banker as ONE RISK FACTOR, just like you would consider a competitor who sells at a heavy discount because he cooks his books?Would you use the formulas of that cheater in YOUR forecasting model? Think not. No way. You don't use his book-cooking formulas to outsmart him. You dodn't shadow him. You use credit reports, you check his cooked data with real data according to YOUR formulas.There is no way to outlie a liar. And the final question is:YOU, as a trader, are more similar to a venezuelan banker or to a corporate CEO?Are you in the business of shadowing the FED, or of guessing events (among them: financial market events, and FED book-cooking) and seize opportunities? FED research is sometimes interesting. And even Bart Greesnpan says interesting things from time to time (he is more in the business of asking smart question than in the business of answering them... whatever), when speaking about current trends in the economy.But when he reverts to his specific job, following his logic is suicidal.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/31/01 12:16 PM now: FED and reality now: what's the real effect of all Bart's indicators? Deflation. Good. GLOBAL deflation. Even better.Do I need some secret formula to see deflation? Or do I just need to look at gold, commodities, semis, rate curve, dollar exchange rates, etc etc? Then: in this deflationary environment, did he avoid inflationary risks should his "V" bounce materialise? No (I don't buy the "stagflation" story, but you and Thud brought it on these pages. This means inflationary expectations are not fundamentally excluded from the scenario).Did he avoid bad money on Nasdaq to damage good money? No. (he fed winter 1999/2000 bubble, just to starve it two 3 months after. Speaking of boom-bust central bankers! And he was so aware of the reality of technology, that he bought the Y2K story like any other dumb "y2k-fix-your-clock" package purchaser).Can you explain, in Greenspan's own words, on the basis of some published paper, to CLEARLY state what he meant to do? No (please correct me if you can state it).Nice job. Nice track record. I am in hurry to learn the recipe, and use it for my portofolio too, hehe. My only problem would be: I have not a government mandate which enables me to force my numbers down the throat of traders.Now: what's next for trades? Waiting for next FED's directive, or trying to figure out HOW the real world will react to deflation?Your choice.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 4:35 PM the formula of happiness somebody please tell him the truth. He is old enough to face it.BUt me, I am too tired today.Yawn ? messages for Thud and Raman ozy 04/18/01 7:09 PM yawn? messages for Thud and Raman 1) message for Thuddie: next time you feel bored, let me know: it means a flamboyant [...] day is in the cards;2) message for Raman. You eanted to know what indicator is Bart following? he is playing the trend-follower. He will hike rates during next downmove. hehe.ozy miani@consilia.com 04/18/01 7:40 PM uhm... let me see. another rate cut, and gold still 12 bucks under the jan 3rd level, CRB 15 points down. Am I missing something?I must be missing some huge "stagflation" risk. We go on like this, inflation will flood us, won't it?YAWN thuddie 04/18/01 3:48 AM YAWN eom ozy miani@consilia.com 04/18/01 10:24 AM RE: YAWN NOWAY Academy awards Ozy miani@consilia.com 03/26/01 8:10 AM Academy awards The best I can say, is that Academy Awards are a lagging indicator. Definitely. From "Erin Brockovich" to the suffering wife of Pollock.Veronica-Lynn veronica@consilia.com 03/26/01 10:49 PM Academy awards "Lagging" indicators? What about "nielsen historical lows"? -8% from the "American beauty" night which marked the turning point for NDX. [And it already was a good 8% under the "Titanic" levels]. Erin Brockovich was the last hooray for class action tree hugging lawyers. And it scored its highest nielsens in Brownout-Land.Magical mirror? Or rearview mirror?frx tech + macro 03/28/01igor + ozy analyst@consilia.com 03/28/01 11:29 AM frx tech + macro Ex-sellent. "Capitulation" hopes failed ---> T-Bonds down --> help usd/jpy retracing. This helps yen/eur bouncing, pressuring eur and finally following usd/eur. Meaning that: yen/eur enters alert zone too. Keep long term shorts on yen, but hedge or follow carefully s/t. In macro terms: awful for emerging/peripherals; good example of how a "W"-shaped agony works. Look at the effect that consumer "elation" had on gold.joe melli@consilia.com 03/28/01 2:16 PM oversold when will the stock market be "oversold" both for FED and traders? If it goes on like that, never. joe melli@consilia.com 03/28/01 7:49 PM oversold If ozy writes "after all, s&Pfin didn't break 145/142 on the way down", I swear I will kill him. ozy miani@consilia.com 03/29/01 10:22 PM oversold spxf didn't break 145... uhm... hehe ;)M3 DB Comments Raman 03/29/01 3:03 PM M3 DB Comments I've been compiling data re your comments on the above a couple of weeks agowhile I can see what you say by the numbers. The key figure being .30 (when you look at the numbers on a monthly basis.the question is what was the policy from mid 98 backwards when the ratios were completely different Raman 03/29/01 3:51 PM RE: M3 DB Comments OK to expandDB's comments are below pls see my next posting for commentsIs the level of mkt capitalization relative to M3 important? If yes, where are we now? Here are some numbers to think.The ratio M3/US Mkt Capitalization was1997 = 47%1998 = 44%1999 = 37%2000 = 44%numbers I calculated for the end of the year consideredIn other terms, M3 ratio to the sum of M3 itself + Mkt Cap was1997 = 32%1998 = 31%1999 = 27%2000 = 31%See that it was always 31-32%, with 99 the exception. Is the FED targeting a level of mkt capitalization relative to M3? Raman 03/29/01 3:57 PM RE: RE: M3 DB Comments At the time I noted it would be more useful to see the calculations on a montly basis. So I calculated these the results are below. If you want a history further back, ask me and I might help.Point is DB mentioned the crucial number being around .32, which is correct vis a vis the fed moves.But in 1998 and backwards (I have gone back 10 years) this is definitely not the case.Therefore to ratify what seems to be a good idea I would like to have ideas on if theory is good why were the ratios different in 1998, and what do you think influences the change. Could it be a RPI or GDP or currency factor that should be used to change the market cap, or is that incorrect as we are looking at ratios.Or why would fed change policy / what was it before.Date Px Last mkt cap M3/mkt cap m3/mkt cap=m3 Fed rate30-Jan-98 980.28 7,314.62 0.65 0.39 5.527-Feb-98 1,049.34 7,868.99 0.60 0.38 5.531-Mar-98 1,101.75 8,282.67 0.57 0.36 5.530-Apr-98 1,111.75 8,358.54 0.57 0.36 5.529-May-98 1,090.82 8,204.09 0.58 0.37 5.530-Jun-98 1,133.84 8,540.92 0.56 0.36 5.531-Jul-98 1,120.67 8,442.86 0.56 0.36 5.531-Aug-98 957.28 7,368.55 0.65 0.39 5.530-Sep-98 1,017.01 7,858.91 0.61 0.38 5.2530-Oct-98 1,098.67 8,545.02 0.56 0.36 530-Nov-98 1,163.63 9,082.01 0.52 0.34 4.7531-Dec-98 1,229.23 9,624.60 0.49 0.33 4.7529-Jan-99 1,279.64 10,036.17 0.47 0.32 4.7526-Feb-99 1,238.33 9,722.31 0.49 0.33 4.7531-Mar-99 1,286.37 10,114.70 0.47 0.32 4.7530-Apr-99 1,335.18 10,513.63 0.45 0.31 4.7531-May-99 1,301.84 10,257.50 0.46 0.32 4.7530-Jun-99 1,372.71 10,848.05 0.44 0.30 530-Jul-99 1,328.72 10,511.21 0.45 0.31 531-Aug-99 1,320.41 10,445.88 0.46 0.31 5.2530-Sep-99 1,282.71 10,155.91 0.47 0.32 5.2529-Oct-99 1,362.93 10,833.42 0.44 0.31 5.2530-Nov-99 1,388.91 11,043.94 0.43 0.30 5.531-Dec-99 1,469.25 11,721.99 0.41 0.29 5.531-Jan-00 1,394.46 11,154.20 0.43 0.30 5.529-Feb-00 1,366.42 10,934.33 0.44 0.30 5.7531-Mar-00 1,498.58 12,105.14 0.39 0.28 628-Apr-00 1,452.43 11,743.49 0.41 0.29 631-May-00 1,420.60 11,491.65 0.41 0.29 6.530-Jun-00 1,454.60 11,773.43 0.40 0.29 6.531-Jul-00 1,430.83 11,584.13 0.41 0.29 6.531-Aug-00 1,517.68 12,332.71 0.39 0.28 6.529-Sep-00 1,436.51 11,706.61 0.41 0.29 6.531-Oct-00 1,429.40 11,648.95 0.41 0.29 6.530-Nov-00 1,314.95 10,785.38 0.44 0.31 6.529-Dec-00 1,320.28 10,829.28 0.44 0.31 6.531-Jan-01 1,366.01 11,217.83 0.43 0.30 5.528-Feb-01 1,239.94 10,270.00 0.47 0.32 5.5Raman 03/29/01 3:10 PM RE: M3 DB Comments possibley the numbers can be refined using a currency weighted value rather than a dollar value ie vis a vis the dollar index worthReporting DB's comment 03/29/01 10:17 PM M3 DB Comments [This is becoming rather funny. But worth considering nevertheless, because it seems to deal with a substantial issue. I'll discuss it later. Anyway. I asked to DB to remind me what the ISSUE was, because I couldn't understand it, and what follows is the answer. I received it in italian: translation errors are mine, genial intuitions are DB's. Oz].Text by DB follows:"the issue was:sum M3+MktCap (Amex+Nasdaq+Nyse), the result is a value.Compare this value MktCap  MktCap/(MktCap+M3).I noticed that this value remained more or less constant and I guessed: is it casual, is it the fruit of a pure numeric manipulation, or does the FED aims to keep this value constant?That's what I asked.Raman read it, he checked the numbers for a period of time not tested by DB, and found that the ratio is not .32 but something more".ozy miani@consilia.com 03/29/01 10:18 PM M3 DB Comments Thanks for the algebra lesson, but... No. Nein. Lo. Nix. That's not the ISSUE. That's the CALCULATION, not the ISSUE.I still can't understand what the ISSUE is.The difference between the calculation and the issue is: you can perform an immense number of calculations, but not all of them generate or symbolize economic events. Indeed, very few of them deal with economic events.Let's assume that Greenspan's life expectation is 90 years, and let's call it GT. Fact: since Bart became FED's chairman, until now, the sum between the years he had already lived (GA) and the years he could expect to live (GH) remained constant.So, GT-GA varied in a linear fashion, and GT-GA diminished in inverse proportion to GT-GH increasing. The sum GA+GH remained unchanged. The same happened for GG, which I will call "Greenspan's Vital Identity Constant", whose algorithm is:GG = (GA+GH)/GT[any relation of this "life/death" constant to both the "undertaker" look and the slight "identity/existence" problem noted in Greenspan by Rand, will be object of further investigation in a coming paper].Nice formulae. But what the heck do they mean?A monetary target is not ANYTHING.Or do you really believe (now I begin to understand how amazon could rise above 110) that a currency, once it is no more the depository receipt of a defined quantity of gold, can become 1/Nth of NO MATTER WHAT, no matter what quantity, real or defined by an algorithm? THAT'S the step where I stopped, and asked what you were talking about. At the start it was just a hint by DB, but when I saw Raman going on number-crunching around the idea, I just asked what the *h*e*c*k* this was meant to mean.And since you are two talented traders and two meticulous market watchers, your choiceA monetary target is not like any other indicator. It includes in its idea the arbitrary choice of values on which a currency's value is founded. Choosing a variable then is a political and economic choice. Choosing M3 or M2 as a target is, after all, reminiscent (albeit in a perverse way) of the fact that printing money and counting it is not the most neutral of acts.Careful, then.What would it mean, for an economy, the fact that a central bank chooses as its target to keep constant the ratio btw m3 and MktCap? [My secondary question: what does it mean the fact that traders even think about it?].Does it mean that, if less firms are listed, a central bank should print more money? Why? Because the economy is more reliant on bank-mediated credit? Uhm...Or: if more companies are listed (then the economy is less reliant on bank credit), should FED restrict money supply? Uhm. May be. Why?Why? Because credit is not necessary to the mechanics of the stock market?Oh, oops.Fool me. I believed that stock traders had no other reason to think about the FED, than the fact that credit is what keeps the stock market running.It was, last time I checked.Is considering M3 and MktCap two quantities which can be ADDED, a sensible way to describe the role of credit in the stock market?Uhm...I think that maybe the belief that the FED's institutional role is to support the stock market, and above all the consequent disappointment, is generating some funny ideas.That's the most interesting part.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/29/01 4:36 PM .M3 DB Comments Why?You boys are losing me.Why crossing m3 (or m2) with stock market capitalization? And why, Raman, should this be "corrected" through an EXTERNAL reference to a basket of foreign currencies? I just can't follow your path of reasoning. Anything can be statistically correlated with anything else. But does it make any sense? What is M3? what is market capitalization? What's a central bank to do with them? Why could or should a central bank target m3 or m2? What does this mean in economical terms? First step.Next step: what's m2 or m3 to do with stock market CAPITALIZATION? Third step: suppose you want to target them. Do you cross the data? or do you SUM them? Why? Why not?Dunno. I think it usually starts with a problem to analyze ("is there too much money out there"? "or does economy lack cash?"), then you find indicators to measure what's happening, and FINALLY you choose some among them as TARGETS (a target is something different from an indicator: you presume that by changing it you will change in predictable fashion a whole array of indicators).I am slightly amazed seeing how many "momentum" or "fade-the-goons" or "technical" traders turned macro-economists in the past 4 months.Are you people sure you are not just clutching at straws, trying to find ANYTHING which could seem to makes sense?Worse: trying to figure out, BY REVERSING THE PROCESS, what's happening in Greensapn's mind? Who cares? Even if you found out that Bart "seems to target" some unreasonable algorithm, is this a vehicle of analysis?Pls explain. ThxThud McGuffin 03/30/01 4:17 AM RE: .M3 DB Comments Er... guys, M3 is expanding but that is not much help to borrowers in the commercial paper market. Add them together and a different picture appears.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 8:21 AM M3 DB Comments Again, apples and oranges.Thud's observation is correct. But does nothing to answer to my question (except he seems to say "who cares what FED is trying to keep constant?". If this is the case, I agree heartily).Watching the CP market is of course correct, and it shows something interesting about credit and the presumed potential bailouts by "monetary authorities". But "connecting the dots" between two economic variables is NOT defining a monetary target. It can be useful in order to analyze market conditions, but it not a compass for printing money."We will expand credit until so to keep tyre pressure uniform in the country (adjusted for the car's colour" is NOT monetary targeting. It's discretionary economic planning.So is to pretending keeping one stock market index afloat or sinking it.I don't know if this is the first case in history when the caste of Royal Astronomers (who pretended to make the stars move by their observations) is matched by a "popular caste" of Royal Astronomer Watchers (who watch the stars and analyse their movement only in order to guess the Royal Astronomer's observations. Think not. Will check.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 8:56 AM Royal Watchers in the meantime, message for FED watchers and Royal Astromer Watchers alike, guessing why stars move like that: the Earth spins and turns around the sun. Raman 03/30/01 9:06 AM RE: Royal Watchers I guess that's all cleared up now then.I still think the original thought was a valid one - not necessarlly the equations.A more instructive formula would prove very useful to improve market timing techniques ozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 9:30 AM OH SHIT !!!!!!!!!!!! OH, SHIT!!!!!*W*H*A*T W*A*S T*H*E O*R*I*G*I*N*A*L T*H*O*U*G*H*T*?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!IT'S NOT HOW YOU COMPUTE IT! IT IS : WHAT THE HECK ARE YOU TRYING TO COMPUTE!But your final comment was revealing, Raman: you are looking for an INDICATOR to follow, NOT for a monetray target. why do you need to include the FED in it? Just say "I think that MktCap+M3 should stay constant, this is my oscillator". Good. Fine. ...er... not.Raman 03/30/01 9:40 AM RE: OH SHIT !!!!!!!!!!!! I thought that was what the discussion was about. DB suggested an answer I checked it out a bit further, and it didn't seem to fit anything, prior to the period he looked at, so I asked for clarification on the period preceding...ie did anyone - if they agredd with his original idea - have any ideas why it might be different in the earlier periodsmy conclusion is that is no statistical evidence to suggest the linkozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 10:48 AM lies, damn lies and statistics interesting. And what if you found a perfect correlation? I gave you one: the GG invariable. That's a perfect constant, in statistical terms. Does it means anything? Not. But it works perfectly! Please check: it's the most stable target tou can find! I checked, and if an index autocorrelates perfectly, THEN it autocorrelates EVEN IF you divide the value of that index by the Greenspan Life Expectation Constant! That's amazing. That's SCIENCE, dude!I repeat my question: is this a method? Choosing two variables randomnly, then testing them? You could go on forever like that.Or you could find a fake correlation, and just follow it no matter what it means, because it stands the check of 10 years of data.But I said a SECOND thing: when people THINKS this way about the basics of money, something really wrong happened in schools. was this the way statistics was used in the roaring months of auto-correlation?This is important, because if this kind of thinking is common, then traders lost any idea of what money is. Can't you really grasp that: choosing variables randomly is THE CONTRARY of what MONEY is? Money is what allows you to buy no matter what, so it cannot be no-matter-what? Now I understand why somebody asked me: "i feel strange, comparing stock market moves with what happens to oil or gold prices. I can't see correlation there: what data are you using?". Anyway. I am busy now. I am studying the correlation between apples and oranges (Silicon Valley vs Orange County). From a rigorous statistical point of view.My little dumb brother failed first year at primary school six times in a row because he added apples and oranges. Maybe he should have crossed and charted them. He could have earned a living selling hi-tech funds to goons.ouch!Repeat: now I understand how amazon could shoot to 110.db 03/30/01 11:18 AM About fruits, oranges and M3 Hello my dear ephistemological and number crunching friends.Is it true we can't add oranges and apples? It depends on what we are counting I believe. If we want to count apples or oranges, the add up is wrong, but if the question is: how many fruits do we get from adding 5 apples and 5 oranges? In this case we can add up and answer 10.Now let's go back to M3 and MktCap. Of course they are apples and oranges, but if I think they have a common factor, namely moneyness, I can add them up. The idea, developed during several emails with oz during 2000, is basically this one: maybe Silicon Valley was making a new experiment---> the role of a central bank---> stocks used to buy other companies. Add to this the wealth effect and we could conclude that a new type of money was created in the economy---> stocks. Created by companies, not by the Fed. At this point, if the previous sentences are correct, what could the Fed do? Fed can control partially M2, but not MktCap. Therefore if Fed wants to control the money supply, one way could be targetting a ratio MktCap/M3. Maybe the fact that the ratio is valid expecially after 98 can be a sign of structural change in the role of stocks, ie, not simply a share representing company but a quasi-money role. We can discuss about this assumption of course, but my question was: let's suppose stock is money, at this point what would do the Fed? ozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 11:45 AM About fruits, oranges and M3 No, DB. No. Nein. Lo. Nix.I NEVER spoke, and will NEVER speak of anything like a "central bank" involved in creation of money in silicon valley.This is absolutely out of question.This is absolutely the CONTRARY of all I said.I said that some kind of (tentative) money creation was happening AGAINST the FED.People, please focus on what money is and what FED is. Well:1) BECAUSE of what FED is, FED deflated the dollar. Stop.2) I asked: is it possible that SOME of market moves in the last years have been a rough and ill-conceived, but perfectly justified in terms of self-defense, attempt at "money creation" by one lively sector of the economy, in order to fight deflation? And in order to tell to the central bank, to its idiot chairman, and to his hypnotized followers and executors (YOU), to feck off?This was the question I debated last year. It starts from real economy (hi tech) and the dollar.Then it goes to dollar and FED.Then to dollar, FED and stock market.Since the FIRST passage, the idea that a central bank is NEEDED to manage money, is LOST.Hello?!?! You there? Trade is necessary to create money. A central bank is not necessary. Value is necessary, gurus are not. Real indicators are necessary, SECRETIVE number crunching is not.I am not speaking of some sci-fi or liBARTarian hype about "cybercash", etc.I am speaking of a sector of economy who had its life at stake. It didn't FIGHT against FED because it has not a coherent political THOUGHT (and this was evident in California energy crisis and in the MSFT trial). But it certainly sensed that something was wrong with MONEY and the FED.What's CERTAIN is that THERE'S NO WAY OUT IF THE IDEA OF A CENTRAL ROLE OF THE FED IS UNQUESTIONED. The recovery of hi-tech shares and industry needs THEM to get themselves logically FREE from the deflationary obsessions of mr Greenspan.And this cannot happen through FED watching.And extracting "moneity" from apples and oranges in order to lurk in Greenspan's mind is exactly a way to FORGET that there's a real hi-tech world out there, and to focus on last-century logical-pragmatist-keynesism.Now, DB, you may restart from scratch.And remember: as Hofstadter (or Comte) would say: in order to know how Greenspan's brain works, you have to stop it. But at that point you will not see it working. Greenspan's brain stopped working long time ago.One of the founding fathers of psychiatry (Kraepelin) had discovered a sure way to diagnose schiozophrenia. But he complained he needed a post-mortem to perform his test. That left his patients with a little problem of short life expectation.Does the Nasdaq have a choice other than schizofrenia or death by monetary asphyxia?db 03/30/01 12:57 AM RE: About fruits, oranges and M3 Well Oz, either I write a bad english or you understand it badly. I said "silicon valley" creating money. I didn't say Fed using Silicon to create money. Re-read what I wrote. I understood your notes last year, and the explanation you gave just confirmed me that (that I understood your thought) - the other step is: Fed understood this as well(not only oz)and therefore it started taking into account - as a measure of money - also the MktCap. We can argue and say that Fed didn't spot this process, but if it did, what is fed supposed to do? Raman 03/30/01 11:13 AM RE: lies, damn lies and statistics osy'slearnin ozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 11:58 AM lies, damn lies and statistics one of this days you will explain me what that means.frankly, Raman: the trick of spitting half-ideas pretending you have the whole idea in mind but you just don't want to make things too easy, is old like the world [it's a primary symptom of Peters' Pyramidal Syndrome: faking competence].Greenspan is the master. But I find it alarming thast it seems to be so well entrenched.Raman 03/30/01 1:35 PM RE: lies, damn lies and statistics well slap my wrist and call me nelly.now1st.what you and db continue now is something different to what i askif you are going on the offensive please reread the textin terms of the simple questions i asked concerning the data and DB's initial comment.2ndnow look at the concept of date stamping and subject titles and use that new found technology to predict in which order and to which of your responses i was responding to.3rdhave you got high blood pressure?ozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 2:08 PM blood and blood pressure 1) I am dumb, and even looking at all the food stamps I cannot detect what you were referring to when saying "osy's [new line] learnin".I never learn anything, anyway.2) I would never slap your wrist, for fear of breaking it, you limpwristed faggot. Hehe. Friendly enough now? ;)3) Raman: THERE'S NEVER BEEN TWO DIFFERENT QUESTIONS (calculus vs concept). When you discuss money and central banks, either you stick to what's at matter or you don't. If your physicist told you that he found a new way to count your GREEN blood cells, you would just RUN AWAY, without waiting for him to start the process.I didn't run (DB's idea was not HORRIBLE, it just contained a problem, and not a little one). But I will not accept generic phantasies when such an issue is involved.Raman 03/30/01 2:19 PM RE: back to the dicussion so,in which other figures would rises / decreases in market cap show directly.also am i right in saying fed can't control M3, i say this because how could relationship remain by changes in int rates that supossedly take months to hithence my question for another indicatorbecause i think the theme is right ozy miani@consilia.com 03/30/01 2:26 PM back to the discussion in this case let's start from scratch. start a new headline (this is becoming funny: it looks like the trajectory of yhoo), stating WHAT IS THE THEME: is it "what indicator is that fucking Bart following"? Or: ...? "Capitulation" ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 11:06 AM "Capitulation" I have one question (a completely open one: more of a hint than really a question). Most followers of traditional technical analysis or "contrarian" trading are discussing "capitulation" (and lack of) on US stock markets. Whether it's there, or not, and why, and when, etc etc. Let's forget for a second that a "capitulation" was called one year ago by the same commentators.I don't buy the "capitulation" concept, but let's exercise on what traders call with that name."DB yesterday noticed that the whole debate about a "V" or "U" recovery should distinguish among a recovery by the markets and by the economy. nothing warrants they would have the same shape. I agree: especially because a "W" recovery looks terribly like a "V" in its first stages, and often looks terribly like a "L" in its final consequences.The best candidate for a mistake shaping US crisis in a "W" nightmare is FED; better: FED (with its current misunderstanding of the crisis) and Bush failing to sidestep FED and to call the shots.Now, my "open question" is:since A) the idea of a "healthy capitulation" is implicit in a "V" shaped scenario, and since B) the "V"-shaped scenario relies entirely [according to traders and commentators, and idiots who are both or neither] on the FED, is it possibile that EXACTLY the FED mistakes are distorting the "capitulation" mechanics during current market fall?Meaning: what remains of the classical "capitulation" idea, since market participants still rely on the idea of a monetary stimulus making the market moves PERFECTLY asymmetrical?Is that "distortion" just another symptom of the fact that FED was wrong in targeting [targeting, not targeting, targeting again, then soothing, then menacing, then bailing out, bla bla bla] stock markets, completely missing the signals by commodities and global monetary system?Finally: since "capitulation" is a strongly ideological, behaviourist notion, is it possibile that FED can't manage the current crisis because it shares, on its side, the same logical error which created the "capitulation" notion?Is "capitulation" ("ok, we surrender, oh Great Power take our bodies, kill us fast and let us enter Heaven once our sinful body will be purified") another name for "bailout"?And are they both an illusion, this time, since this is a global real crisis and not a stock market technical accident?The question is not clear and well-defined because i worked on a ill-conceived idea (capitulation) trying to make sense of it. And this is usually a futile excercise. Anyway. db 03/16/01 12:37 AM REI will write more later, for now just a few words and a new question. Is the level of mkt capitalization relative to M3 important? If yes, where are we now? Here are some numbers to think.The ratio M3/US Mkt Capitalization was1997 = 47%1998 = 44%1999 = 37%2000 = 44%numbers I calculated for the end of the year consideredIn other terms, M3 ratio to the sum of M3 itself + Mkt Cap was1997 = 32%1998 = 31%1999 = 27%2000 = 31%See that it was always 31-32%, with 99 the exception. Is the FED targeting a level of mkt capitalization relative to M3? Have anice lunch, laterRaman 03/16/01 2:14 PM RE: RE: What do the numbers look like on a rolling monthly basis.Do you really think there is a direct causal relationship between int rates and M3 Raman 03/16/01 12:15 AM RE: I'm not really sure if this is answering your question os.But, if for a few moments, one considers the market in the context of reflexology then the bull was clearly an excess so are we not now just going to excess in the other dirctionThis too would tie into the old adage, that the stock mkt has predicted 12 out of the last 9 recessions or something like that.To kickstart/ to falter a stock market one requires a stimulus and catalyst. Is the fed not just one of many catalysts.Take 87, there was nothing concrete to crash the market. Same for 98 - ie there was no evidence of a slowdown (there was an increased chance), but the fed eased anyway. the chance of slowdown was eliminated and off soared the market with a vengeance. 1998 that was capitulation. Where a bailout worked, and yes I agree ultimately caused the current problems (too much too soon).Today, I wouldn't agree, it's not the same. Then in 98 the end of the world was nigh we were going to blow up, everything could go bust.Now we are plain and simple slowing down. I think it is different, as the market is merely pricing in continued bad news as it priced continued good news on the way up.Ok, the fed helps by easing, but that in itself wont stop what's happenning now (japan is the proof of that).Until the news starts to show recovery I think the bear will reign, but that in no way is that capitulation. How could it be when people are still predicting where the market will bottom. We need a shock event for that.Raman 03/16/01 12:49 AM RE: RE: So my question would be:where is fair value, given what we rationally expect.& where is bear value, ie price in the worst of the worstQ is that the 1997 oct low and 1998 oct low.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 1:01 PM target to Raman:"Where's the target? The final point?". In short: I say it's not in the stock market, and that currencies/commodities will have to be considered to call the end of the move.Just like the rally was NOT a self-sustaining rally, a so-called "speculative bubble" (even if the participants thought it was) - it was instead propelled by monetary events -, so the crash is NOT a "psychology" problem, nor a "technical" correction of an overbought market.It's always the same old story of mine about FED, gold an dollar, yen,eur: but in this case I am trying to translate it into the technical frame of mind of people focused only on the stock market.db 03/16/01 1:35 PM RE: target by the way, what do ppl mean by capitulation? it's not a math definition. Capitulation means nothing. For every seller there's a buyer, so to say capitulation occurs when nobody is willing to buy---> no senseCapitualation = when most investors believe that a rebound won't occur anytime soon, or that the bear mkt underway will go on and won't reverse soonIn this acception, yes, FED is preventing a real capitulation, because it gives the illusion that the bear mkt is close to the end. As concerns my M3 ratio, I believe FED is satisfied with the mkt capitalization level, hence its intervention to support mkts, before things get harsh.My opinion is that when corporations are trapped in an overbuilding of fixed capital, there isnt much that FED can do. What FED can do is to avoid a consumer confidence crash, it cant buy the servers or microchips in excess. This will require time. No V-shaped rebound of the economy. A devaluation of fixed capital will do the job; but for this we will need at least 2 years. And so I think we won't see easily a rebound of equities for the remainder of 2001. > Raman 03/16/01 1:20 PM RE: target OK let's put in another wayWhat is your worst economic scenario (the worst worst)Can you translate to a stock market impact.Did you read Prechters, Elliot and his predictions in "Crest of the Wave" or something. 03/16/01 1:41 PM RE: RE: target Do u believe in Elliott theory? Why should the waves be 3 or 5 instead of 6, or 11? What's the correlation between wave ocean and nasdaq? Let me say something: if we calculate foot-and-mouth cases correlation with the hourly closes of nasdaq100, im sure we will see a 80% correlation. Does that mean anything?03/16/01 2:10 PM RE: RE: RE: target It works for the same way as people believe in technical analysis webmaster heidi@consilia.com 03/16/01 2:03 PM who are you? who are you? who are you asking to? who posted that? Messages without author AND subject make an unpleasant reading. Thanks db 03/16/01 3:44 PM RE: who are you? it was me, db - maybe i forgot to put the author, apologizeozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 2:04 PM elliott If the question about Prechter+Elliott was for me, the answer is: not.Elliott was not such a genius as a poet, go figure as a analyst. ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 2:12 PM back to target "what's the worst case scenario"? The current one, if not corrected YESTERDAY (ASAP is not enough).Three idiot central banks, a completely debased monetary system, years of creeping deflation, a blind herd of market participants completely fascinated by one central banker who was smart and perverse enough to pose as a free-marketeer. The worst case scenario is Greenspan just throwing some flabby bone to the market, without any political hint at reflation. That would spread the Japanese disease (aka "putting your foot in your mouth and lie passively while waiting for better times".Less-than-worst-case scenario is: gold rally, dollar and yen reflation, lot of politics (less taxes: far less than what Bush plan currently seems to be able to obtain), etc.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 2:30 PM a clarification Between, let this be clear: 1) the "worst case scenario" is not the same as "the most immediately bearish scenario". A "W" risking to turn into a "L" is far worse than a "V", no matter how deep the "V"2) [for DB] for the same reason, a slow series of useless interventions prolonging the agony is not even the way to "give the economy time to purge its excesses" [whatever this "purge" idea means]. Stable currencies and money are needed, for "fixed capital devaluation to do the job". Try to "manage" overcapacity while Argentina or China sink.So: a quick [and overdue] fix to money is the best way to get a "natural" recovery.db 03/16/01 3:42 PM RE: a clarification and what's a quick fix to money exactly?ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 4:04 PM quick fix there's no such thing. he he.I meant: "quickly" tackling the issue from a different angle than cionsidering it an internal problem of the Wall Street-FED circuit.Which means: to reconsider and reverse the mistakes made in 1995 (the whole gang), 1997 (the euros) 1998 (euros and FED), all along (the Nips) etc.Staring, for exemple, by TELLING the market participants that FED was wrong.Why should it be impossible? Bush "disappointed" the ecologists, why shouln't he be able to tell Bart to feck off (a different way of dis-appointing s.o.)?"Capitulation" ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 11:06 AM "Capitulation" I have one question (a completely open one: more of a hint than really a question). Most followers of traditional technical analysis or "contrarian" trading are discussing "capitulation" (and lack of) on US stock markets. Whether it's there, or not, and why, and when, etc etc. Let's forget for a second that a "capitulation" was called one year ago by the same commentators.I don't buy the "capitulation" concept, but let's exercise on what traders call with that name."DB yesterday noticed that the whole debate about a "V" or "U" recovery should distinguish among a recovery by the markets and by the economy. nothing warrants they would have the same shape. I agree: especially because a "W" recovery looks terribly like a "V" in its first stages, and often looks terribly like a "L" in its final consequences.The best candidate for a mistake shaping US crisis in a "W" nightmare is FED; better: FED (with its current misunderstanding of the crisis) and Bush failing to sidestep FED and to call the shots.Now, my "open question" is:since A) the idea of a "healthy capitulation" is implicit in a "V" shaped scenario, and since B) the "V"-shaped scenario relies entirely [according to traders and commentators, and idiots who are both or neither] on the FED, is it possibile that EXACTLY the FED mistakes are distorting the "capitulation" mechanics during current market fall?Meaning: what remains of the classical "capitulation" idea, since market participants still rely on the idea of a monetary stimulus making the market moves PERFECTLY asymmetrical?Is that "distortion" just another symptom of the fact that FED was wrong in targeting [targeting, not targeting, targeting again, then soothing, then menacing, then bailing out, bla bla bla] stock markets, completely missing the signals by commodities and global monetary system?Finally: since "capitulation" is a strongly ideological, behaviourist notion, is it possibile that FED can't manage the current crisis because it shares, on its side, the same logical error which created the "capitulation" notion?Is "capitulation" ("ok, we surrender, oh Great Power take our bodies, kill us fast and let us enter Heaven once our sinful body will be purified") another name for "bailout"?And are they both an illusion, this time, since this is a global real crisis and not a stock market technical accident?The question is not clear and well-defined because i worked on a ill-conceived idea (capitulation) trying to make sense of it. And this is usually a futile excercise. Anyway. db 03/16/01 12:37 AM REI will write more later, for now just a few words and a new question. Is the level of mkt capitalization relative to M3 important? If yes, where are we now? Here are some numbers to think.The ratio M3/US Mkt Capitalization was1997 = 47%1998 = 44%1999 = 37%2000 = 44%numbers I calculated for the end of the year consideredIn other terms, M3 ratio to the sum of M3 itself + Mkt Cap was1997 = 32%1998 = 31%1999 = 27%2000 = 31%See that it was always 31-32%, with 99 the exception. Is the FED targeting a level of mkt capitalization relative to M3? Have anice lunch, laterRaman 03/16/01 2:14 PM RE: RE: What do the numbers look like on a rolling monthly basis.Do you really think there is a direct causal relationship between int rates and M3 Raman 03/16/01 12:15 AM RE: I'm not really sure if this is answering your question os.But, if for a few moments, one considers the market in the context of reflexology then the bull was clearly an excess so are we not now just going to excess in the other dirctionThis too would tie into the old adage, that the stock mkt has predicted 12 out of the last 9 recessions or something like that.To kickstart/ to falter a stock market one requires a stimulus and catalyst. Is the fed not just one of many catalysts.Take 87, there was nothing concrete to crash the market. Same for 98 - ie there was no evidence of a slowdown (there was an increased chance), but the fed eased anyway. the chance of slowdown was eliminated and off soared the market with a vengeance. 1998 that was capitulation. Where a bailout worked, and yes I agree ultimately caused the current problems (too much too soon).Today, I wouldn't agree, it's not the same. Then in 98 the end of the world was nigh we were going to blow up, everything could go bust.Now we are plain and simple slowing down. I think it is different, as the market is merely pricing in continued bad news as it priced continued good news on the way up.Ok, the fed helps by easing, but that in itself wont stop what's happenning now (japan is the proof of that).Until the news starts to show recovery I think the bear will reign, but that in no way is that capitulation. How could it be when people are still predicting where the market will bottom. We need a shock event for that.Raman 03/16/01 12:49 AM RE: RE: So my question would be:where is fair value, given what we rationally expect.& where is bear value, ie price in the worst of the worstQ is that the 1997 oct low and 1998 oct low.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 1:01 PM target to Raman:"Where's the target? The final point?". In short: I say it's not in the stock market, and that currencies/commodities will have to be considered to call the end of the move.Just like the rally was NOT a self-sustaining rally, a so-called "speculative bubble" (even if the participants thought it was) - it was instead propelled by monetary events -, so the crash is NOT a "psychology" problem, nor a "technical" correction of an overbought market.It's always the same old story of mine about FED, gold an dollar, yen,eur: but in this case I am trying to translate it into the technical frame of mind of people focused only on the stock market.db 03/16/01 1:35 PM RE: target by the way, what do ppl mean by capitulation? it's not a math definition. Capitulation means nothing. For every seller there's a buyer, so to say capitulation occurs when nobody is willing to buy---> no senseCapitualation = when most investors believe that a rebound won't occur anytime soon, or that the bear mkt underway will go on and won't reverse soonIn this acception, yes, FED is preventing a real capitulation, because it gives the illusion that the bear mkt is close to the end. As concerns my M3 ratio, I believe FED is satisfied with the mkt capitalization level, hence its intervention to support mkts, before things get harsh.My opinion is that when corporations are trapped in an overbuilding of fixed capital, there isnt much that FED can do. What FED can do is to avoid a consumer confidence crash, it cant buy the servers or microchips in excess. This will require time. No V-shaped rebound of the economy. A devaluation of fixed capital will do the job; but for this we will need at least 2 years. And so I think we won't see easily a rebound of equities for the remainder of 2001. > Raman 03/16/01 1:20 PM RE: target OK let's put in another wayWhat is your worst economic scenario (the worst worst)Can you translate to a stock market impact.Did you read Prechters, Elliot and his predictions in "Crest of the Wave" or something. 03/16/01 1:41 PM RE: RE: target Do u believe in Elliott theory? Why should the waves be 3 or 5 instead of 6, or 11? What's the correlation between wave ocean and nasdaq? Let me say something: if we calculate foot-and-mouth cases correlation with the hourly closes of nasdaq100, im sure we will see a 80% correlation. Does that mean anything?03/16/01 2:10 PM RE: RE: RE: target It works for the same way as people believe in technical analysis webmaster heidi@consilia.com 03/16/01 2:03 PM who are you? who are you? who are you asking to? who posted that? Messages without author AND subject make an unpleasant reading. Thanks db 03/16/01 3:44 PM RE: who are you? it was me, db - maybe i forgot to put the author, apologizeozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 2:04 PM elliott If the question about Prechter+Elliott was for me, the answer is: not.Elliott was not such a genius as a poet, go figure as a analyst. ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 2:12 PM back to target "what's the worst case scenario"? The current one, if not corrected YESTERDAY (ASAP is not enough).Three idiot central banks, a completely debased monetary system, years of creeping deflation, a blind herd of market participants completely fascinated by one central banker who was smart and perverse enough to pose as a free-marketeer. The worst case scenario is Greenspan just throwing some flabby bone to the market, without any political hint at reflation. That would spread the Japanese disease (aka "putting your foot in your mouth and lie passively while waiting for better times".Less-than-worst-case scenario is: gold rally, dollar and yen reflation, lot of politics (less taxes: far less than what Bush plan currently seems to be able to obtain), etc.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 2:30 PM a clarification Between, let this be clear: 1) the "worst case scenario" is not the same as "the most immediately bearish scenario". A "W" risking to turn into a "L" is far worse than a "V", no matter how deep the "V"2) [for DB] for the same reason, a slow series of useless interventions prolonging the agony is not even the way to "give the economy time to purge its excesses" [whatever this "purge" idea means]. Stable currencies and money are needed, for "fixed capital devaluation to do the job". Try to "manage" overcapacity while Argentina or China sink.So: a quick [and overdue] fix to money is the best way to get a "natural" recovery.db 03/16/01 3:42 PM RE: a clarification and what's a quick fix to money exactly?ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 4:04 PM quick fix there's no such thing. he he.I meant: "quickly" tackling the issue from a different angle than cionsidering it an internal problem of the Wall Street-FED circuit.Which means: to reconsider and reverse the mistakes made in 1995 (the whole gang), 1997 (the euros) 1998 (euros and FED), all along (the Nips) etc.Staring, for exemple, by TELLING the market participants that FED was wrong.Why should it be impossible? Bush "disappointed" the ecologists, why shouln't he be able to tell Bart to feck off (a different way of dis-appointing s.o.)?frx tech + macro igor + ozy feldman@consilia.com 03/13/01 9:53 PM frx tech + macro gold failing the rally once more + yen/dem back above 178 + usd/dem at pre-alert level + usd/jpy capped by 120/120.50. That's baaaaad.For a complimentary copy of last frx+macro report, mail heidi@consilia.com. or e-mail analyst@consilia.com to discuss it real time in chat. Paper and chat comments are available to non clients at the firm's discretion.igor+ozy feldman@consilia.com 03/14/01 3:50 PM RE: frx tech + macro sure. yeah, right. Or: *burp*! frx tech + macro igor feldman@consilia.com 03/15/01 6:20 PM frx tech + macro usd/jpy overstretched (122) with no benefit on gold (261.50. So: unstable frx (--> aud, nzd, cad, etc), yen/eur unable to fall ---> pressure on eur. usd/eur back to alert levels for a bounce.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/15/01 6:26 PM frx + macro is gold at 261 an indicator of a FED ready to energically reflate USD? Think not. CRB under 220/218? neither. So why is that guy talking about a 100 bp cut? uhm... ozy miani@consilia.com 03/15/01 8:36 PM frx + macro meaning also that: T-Bond rally (and the associated usd/jpy rally) is there for the wrong reason. Look at JGB too: up. still discounting deflation. so, yen fall vs eur risks to be fucked. until now, it's certainly voided of any significant stimulus meaning. frx tech + macro igor + ozy analyst@consilia.com 03/23/01 12:34 AM frx tech + macro much ado about "dollar correction", but: usd/eur just stalling at 2.18 d-marks (red alert) while allowing yen/eur to consolidate above 0.0175/0.0178 d-marks. Overextend (s/t) dollar/yen retreats, but is this meaningful (as far as "eur crisis" and "yen bubble" are concerned?): dollar/yen rally with NO gold support, and a yen/dollar bounce make NO substantial difference: both destabilize eur. The problem is not dollar/yen-DIRECTIONAL (it was from 106 to 120), now it's ECONOMIC CONTENT of the move.yen/eur l/t shorts not in red alert but need monitoring; till in hedgind mode on usd/eur l/t shorts; GOLD Thud McGuffin 03/23/01 4:01 AM GOLD Ahem...surely gold is not performing because real rates are still high? Give it 6-12 mths.Your's'TMcG' ozy miani@consilia.com 03/23/01 9:18 AM gold and real rates thud: oracular as usual. But that's a good case of "funny: cat's have eyes exactly in front of their eyelids".I mean: you're right, except for the "because" (do you read replies to your previous postings? It's not a bad habit).---> "real" rates? "real" by reference to WHAT? with an arbitrary measure of inflation, "real" rates are not "real" at all. WHAT's the REAL situation of money/commodities/economy/markets? is it a multi/year inflation turning into a stagflation? Or is it a fucking multi-year deflation with some artificial liquidity injections (1998, Y2K, Nasdaq attempt to supply money to Silicon Valley against FED) grafted into it?Rates are high. stop. Monetary conditions are deflative on yen and dollar. stop. I am not saying that there will not be inflationary problems. Let the asians engage in competitive devaluations once more (effect of yen crash without yen reflation), and you sure will get some nice inflation signs. Let the "capitulators" force some bounces down the throath of the stock market, and you will get exciting consumer data and CPI. It can bounce for months/years. Japan started fight INFLATION last summer, after a couple of stock market bounces. Hehe. Last summer's CPI and Nikkey levels have become multi-year targets now...Was last summer's "inflation" in Japan a "stagflation"? No way. It was an outright deflation. Stop.Other signs of "inflation", you got when commodities deflation caused the barbaric reaction of oil producers. Oil rally is one major of inflationary oressures in the last two years: well, it has been nothing else than commodities producers "fighting" deflation with cargo-cult style instruments (cargo-cult = feticism + mistaking effects for causes).Any inflation sign which will manifest WITHOUT a previous political reassessment of dollar/gold and yen/gold level will be far more damaging. And since it will pester a "slowed down" [euphemism] economy with price spikes, somebody will call it a "stagflation". Which is a convenient bromide for NOT attacking the FED's incompetence NOW.6/12 months? We have not 6/12 months left for reflating. Otherwise we'll have "real" damages to economy well before that date.Speaking of "stagflation" today is just: 1) as far as traders and commentators are concerned, a way to make sense of umbalances btw FED, Markets and economy they cannot interpret; 2) as far as central banks and treasury are concerned, it would be just a way to postpone reflation.In short, please stop talking stagflation, or Bart Greenspan and the Japanese will start thinking to "starve the beast": and considering their track record, they will attack on the "inflation" front. Leaving yiou with a nice, well balanced, no-problemo, not ambiguous *S*T*A*G*N*A*T*I*O*N*.Jason Shapiro's Lonely Hearts Club Band ozy miani@consilia.com 03/21/01 10:23 PM Jason Shapiro's Lonely Hearts Club Band A new regular column appears on CONSILIA's website. This is an exceptional event, because CONSILIA's website usually doesn't feature ANY column, being just a chatting tool and a notepad.The new and only column is written daily in our chatroom by the best friend of Jason Shapiro.In addition to: * the exhilarating gag of pretending to be Jason, * the funny schtick of pretending to be a money manager, * the side-splitting sketch of quickly changing names and identity, * the already immortal performance of guessing tomorrow's Asian moves by today's Wall Street moves (LIVE!), our new contributor gives wise advice on financial markets.In particular - in what is known as his legendary Bank Contrarian Somersault [registered trademark] - he weekly picks the TOP of any bank sector index chosen by the audience, and recommends buying bank shares exactly at the top of any short-term, medium-term or long-term trend, just before a serious fall.His last two performance have been: * to exactly pick the top of last week brief bounce, in order to buy bank and broker shares at the most expensive levels in one month, just before a major sell signal;* today, to be 24 hours late in noticing the strong open of bank shares yesterday, buying them, waiting today, sneering at bears [LIVE in our chat! Extra! For Free! Bonus!] and FINALLY being able to anticipate Abbie Cohen by 15 minutes in getting the trend wrong!Amazing.The guy is a monster.Disclaimer: please understand that he is a short term trader, so his recommendations have to be followed immediately and considered as an immediate assessment of market conditions. The above-mentioned market calls cannot be used anymore for a two/three days trade, because they already stink. So: hurry: be here tomorrow, 30 minutes before NYSE opens, for a new and exiciting show!The show is regulated by the SFA (Solitary Fools Authority)Don't smoke in the house during the show. You will maybe feel the need to smoke after the show. Feel free. JOE melli@consilia.com 03/22/01 5:08 PM Shap's Flabby Sticks Hockey Team's Magical Mistery No-Show I don't know this Shap guy. But by advertising their column you did the right thing: they didn't show up. Oz was right. This makes him wrong, right? Or right? Am I wrong?ozy miani@consilia.com 03/22/01 5:30 PM Bong, Bong, Bhong... You are right: I'm wrong. That's why we make money. If you were wrong, I'd be right: but in this case, being right, I couldn't make money - according to the famous Buddhist Contrarian Guru's theory of making money while being wrong. But am I right when I say you are right saying I am wrong? In this case I'd be right, you'd be wrong, and you'd be wrong in saying I'm wrong.Shit!That's why he needs an assistant to spread his bullshit: it's too complex for a single brain. NDX 1000 Raman 03/14/01 3:30 PM NDX 1000 Any takersozy miani@consilia.com 03/14/01 3:47 PM RE: NDX 1000 1000? meaning that you sell 10 ndx at the price of 1? ok, at a 90% discount I'll take it 03/14/01 4:41 PM RE: RE: NDX 1000 As in NDX100 is px targetozy miani@consilia.com 03/14/01 4:54 PM NDX100 ----> target 1000? ouch!would take 1500 anytime, at 1000 you are talking macroeconomics. I will take it if you understand what that implies. would you take dow 7000 + spxf 120? otherwise, would be careful with targets.03/14/01 5:46 PM RE: NDX100 ----> target 1000? Actually that's what I am mulling over right now.back to oct 97 and oct 98 levels. ozy miani@consilia.com 03/14/01 6:31 PM welcome well, after all the bullish (or "recovery") bullshit I had to endure for one year and a half, I just will ask you:WHY?Otherwise it would be just the reverse of previous herd behaviour Thud McGuffin 03/15/01 4:24 AM RE: welcome Well, I just wanted to say, I have two nice little funds that are quietly making money for folk. SCHRODER INSTITUTIONAL CANADIAN FUND and SCHRODER US ACTIVE VALUE FUND. Please look up their track records on FT.COM and e-mail me for further details.webmaster heidi@consilia.com 03/15/01 1:30 PM advertising Mr McGuffin is a sweet guy but he is sometimes absent-minded (as in "excuse me, I wasn't thinking"): he posted a shameless pitch for Schroders' funds and solicited e-mails. But he forgot to post the mail address. It is: tmcguffin@bloomberg.net.Raman 03/15/01 12:40 AM RE: RE: NDX 1000 Ozy,remember1) I trade shorter term, but am trying to get into positions for months now rather than seconds to minutes to hours and days, so the sh^t you had to endure is based on my short term perception of the mkt. And yes I was bullish, BUT yes I was right to be bullish.Now because you said you were a bear at NDX 2500 and now NDX is below 2K you are winning - GREATI made money on the way up, and some on the way down. You hopefully made yours on the way down. GREATNow more interestingly WHYTechnically, after 1500 that is the target. Each shock that occurred 1997, 1998 moved Dow to that region.Now FTSE broke 6k ages ago, The obvious move, especially with Europe having crashed thru all its 10k equivalent, Set-up = either Europe rallys massively (for no reason) or Dow descends rapidly.Scenario is still the same untill either Europe rallies or Dow falls to 9000 markOk all excess is removed then tech and value wise.Then take a look at the economy.Are we entering recession?We've got Greenspan next week?World is now showing recessionary signs, along with the US, companies are having worse and worse warnings. No reason to buy.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/15/01 1:17 PM NDX 1000 Raman, 1) first of all: please don't post what my trades have been, when you don't know shit about them. We were long from 2200 to 3500 and shorted at 4000 and you knew it (it's still posted on bbg). So why must you falsely smear us before opening a discussion: just to strengthen your ideas? Play it straight, please. What if I told you that I'm flat just now? Not short? So what? [ref point 3]. Please stick to what you know: it'd make a better debate if everybody did. 2) the macro case is bearish. strongly bearish. It was one year ago, when it took you some time to realize it just because you weren't looking at the macro scenario (you got the macro scenario right only once: in autumn 1999, during the Y2K liquidity rally. You will be happy to know that I acknowledged that theme was there and that it fit my scenario, so I traded it long. I dumped evtgh at 3500, on awful spxf signals. You will remember how many times I repeated spxf was telling me to sell the BIG RALLY. Look in spx and spxf chats on Loser's Wire chat). I spent one hell of a month listening to people going to 10000, then you know what happened [that's what i call" enduring a lot of bullshit". was not a personal reference to you]. So, see the point 1) as far as wrong assumptions on my trades are concerned.3) I said I am flat. well. this is not 100% exact. I am flat on ndx and short on spx, dow and spxf shares. the spxf sell signal is only 20 days old. But only today or in coming days it will make a 100% sell signal for a further wide fall in markets.Until then, until a general sell signal, I think that ndx already fell a lot. It can fall to 1500 on an intermediate dow/spx/spxf fall (8500 dow, etc), but it takes a strong bearish macro scenario to obtain it.Now, what's that scenario?The macro case is worsening, and the core point is banks. that's what I am saying since two years and a half.And it is worsening because wrong monetary and fiscal policies debased the global monetary system in past few years. To send ndx to 1000 and dow to 7000/6000, it takes an acknowledgement of THAT problem (ie: it takes saying that euro is shit no matter how much it bounces; admitting that dollar is deflated, that Argentina is fucked, that China-Hong Kong is next in line, etc; until currencies are re-based on sensible terms).Until all that is acknowledged, the scenario will continue to include the idea that Bart Greenspan will be able to stop the crisis. this idea is wrong. But until Greenspan isduly discredited as he deserves, markets will continue to discount some kind of effectiveness on monetary policies. And this allows for bounces, and kept Dow fron falling under 10000/9700, spxf from crashing under 142/138, and ndx to really crash to 1000.When Bart the LibArtarian will be out of the picture, market will crash. until then, I feel uneasy and stay flat on the most oversold [idiot definition] market. Dow and spxf shorts don't include a 20% bounce risk.The worst-case scenario is played for most part on currency, monetary and commodities markets. We already discussed this, and you know what my ideas are. Do you aknowledge my worst-case scenario? Markets understanding that Bart Greenspan not only is a dork, but CANNOT save them? In that case, let's go for 1000. Do you? Really? Now? No chances for a bounce? You bet 80% of your portfolio selling at 1800 target 1000? what's the exit strategy?So: I am looking at the signals that separate a slump from a full-fledged once-in-a-century crash. I think the last would have huge effects on money and politics. pardon me if I don't take the idea so easily: I forecast it two years ago, I don't rush into unfounded doom scenarios only because a couple of dorks discovered that amazon is worth nil. I stick to my well-founded doom scenario: and it includes pauses, bounces, rallys etc.Which makes also the difference between 1500 and 1000: 1500 in the current conditions is just overextending the recent "earnings vs FED" fall. 1000 is a definite target for a different scenario.Raman 03/15/01 3:40 PM RE: NDX 1000 I take the point Os, but my quote was more a question than a bet. I'm was long and short yesterday long NDX and short DOW.Currently I'm just long NDX, and am thinking to short DOW again, but off course I'll go with the flow. The volume wasn't as huge as it might be to mark a low. you say the mkt is oversold, it's actually not that bad dow wise.But, I honestly feel there is a chance of meltdown. But would rather wait to see what Bart is going to give us, before increasing position sizes. I wonder if he really will cut that much.I know what you mean about the macros, but I still ain't convinced of that bad a picture, what I am mulling is a crash scenario - a one off that will clear out all speculative excesses in anyones mind. When - I don't know - I'm waiting like others for the catalyst.In the UK there were rumours yesterday that a large european hedge fund had gone bust.Maybe something like that could be the ticketdb 03/15/01 3:05 PM RE: NDX 1000 I agree with Oz honestly. In terms of risk/opportunity it doesnt make much sense to short ndx now. If mkt reaches its fundamental level, ndx will find itself at 1500, only worst case scenarios can send it down to 1000. I would exploit instead the breaking of some sectors that are included in the spx or dow. Like autos, financials for instance. Therefore a short on dow/spx is safer than on ndx. But I wouldnt buy ndx, basically because I believe it won't recover fast. No V-shaped chart in sight in my opinion. Instead, a base forming here, around 1800 +/- 300 pts. I stick to my past idea--> better playing ndx on the gamma side, not on delta. Watch carefully nikkei too. Many are downplaying the fall and advice watching topix, but topix doesnt give a historical view as long as nky. Topix is 14 yrs, nikkei longer. In fact, if you trace a trendline linking the lows of 1974 and 1982 on nikkei, you will note that in 98/99 nikkei bounced on that 25 yrs long trendline and speeded towards 21000. But now that trendline got broken. Troubles ahead. Anyway, it could be the chance to shake deeply some attitudes of Japan. Note that several studies demonstrated a strong mean-reversion effect also on indexes themselves, with a time span of 5 yrs in average. This is proving true for US mkts. Watch Nikkei also, you never know. Another thing: watch dow utility index (or spxu)- the break higher (with some damage anyway after the california utilities troubles)looks important. That occurred during 99/00 and that level is still intact. Could it be that "the new economy" needs energy more that what we thought previously? In this case, the infrastructure, would be not only SUNW ORCL or IBM, but also energy providers and producers. OIL could be more resilient than expected, and not depending only from Opec gymnicsRaman 03/15/01 4:25 PM RE: RE: NDX 1000 Also could it be possible to use nky as an example of a bubble deflating. If so we still have not seen the eventual low. But may have seen an intermediate low.Raman 03/15/01 4:11 PM RE: RE: NDX 1000 DB,I'll reply soon on what else you have written but am concerned with what you say about NKYOk it broke the last low (98/99). But the last low also broke the previous low (95/96), with maybe someone making the same observation.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/15/01 4:34 PM NDX 1000 [this is just a parenthesis. updates my position without detailing the analysis. I'm allowed to do it coz I am the boss]: 1) spxf trying to renegotiate 145 (148 would cancel the strong bearish signal); would indicate a stop to Dow's fall; but: 2) gold/forex are far from quiet. I would suggest to follow the play between Dow/Spxf/Nky and the forex game (expecially yen/BOJ AND FED. Read FED also through BOJ/yen). Eg: NKY bounce stopped by yen damages on eur. Close the parenthesis. Wait for Raman's next shot Nikkei rise 8% db 03/21/01 9:55 AM nikkei_rise_8% Last year, on the 17th of Apr, nikkei lost 8%, and never recovered the levels lost. Will that occur now too (on the reverse)? But we also saw that nasdaq rose 19% on the 3rd Jan 01, and later it lost all the gains. So we have two difefrent behaviors in the recent past. What I mean is: a volatility breakout is not a guarantee of new trend (like in the past)Besides that, this morning banks can borrow yen at 0.16%. Will this liquidity affect and distort the behavior of foreign markets beside Japan? What are the risks to borrow yen and invest that money in nasdaq100 for instance? In this case BoJ will prop up nasdaq instead of nikkei. And when nikkei will rise 20-30% (IF) what will investors do? If it's just a liquidity trade nikkei will withdraw and give back all the gains. BoJ hopes that 1) nikkei rises and avoids banks'failures 2) a mild wealth effect will change japanese consumer patterns 3) after some months the economy recovers AND at that point will match the nikkei valuations. If not, nikkei will be too overvalued and will drop again, in fact if valuations can't be justified by fundamentals, and are set by liquidity, investors won't keep their positions because they don't think to be in a value creation stock, just a capital gain play Raman 03/21/01 12:14 AM RE: nikkei_rise_8% When is the year end in Japan. Doesn't this happen every year?ozy miani@consilia.com 03/21/01 11:19 AM nikkei Just a quick comment.1) a cosmetic intervention/bounce on NKY was expected since long. 12800 was a sell signal for 10000, and it's not canceled until 13600 (immediately) and 14000 are regained (when traders initially beg for a support, it was 14000, to provide a bounce to 14850/15250 at least. go figure). The keyword here is "cosmetic".2) I wouldn't make much out of a DIRECT NKY <--->NDX correlation, either in statistical or in fundamental terms. Japanese consumers (are they the problem? or is the problem the Japanese obsession with consumers, forgetting that "supply" makes the world go round?) won't give a damn of a NDX bounce, nor of a NKY bounce to 14000.3) the DIRECT centralbank/stock market relation is another obsession, especially dangerous in the U.S. (ref: standing ovation FED received yesterday), but lethal in Japan too. Until REAL deflation is targeted, both in US and in Japan, stock market problems will not go away.I already said it: until the maneuver targets forex and gold too, it simply will not work. Dismal performance of gold in front of substantial dollar/yen moves and rate cuts is telling.You cannot have ANY mutual beneficial effect btw NDX and NKY, no matter how much a central bank (or its local branches, aka "traders") try to support them, until the money flowing (or NOT flowing) btw them is debased.Reflate both dollar and yen OR ELSE.4) the good news is that BOJ moves on monday were not bad at all. Late, too late, but not bad at all. Not enough. But not bad. Good enough to legitimate today's bounce. late enough to make it just a cosmetic bounce UNTIL [ref: point 3].More and more specific comments on your note later.db 03/21/01 11:32 AM RE: nikkei well, i was thinking more in terms of yen-nasdaq play, not nikkei nasdaq. I spoke about the nikkei as an example of equity index propped by the cheap yen rate. immediate effect on the domestic index, later, hedge fund play could move other indexes. what i fear is another liquidity add up to the liquidity problem already present globally (fed, asia, etc) ozy miani@consilia.com 03/21/01 12:00 AM yen ...er... what do you call "a liquidity problem"? Deflation is a money problem. and yen is not cheap, it is deflated. It is still sky-high against gold, it just gave up some against dollar but it is still in bubble conditions vs euro (at least until it sinks below 0.0175 deutsche marks, and with clear policy statements). Yen is NOT cheap, that's the problem. There just is not enough yen. But if you just sink yen without reflating it (ie: gold rising), you will not have a parameter for asian currencies to watch, other the trying to sink following yen.Either yen is reflated, and dollar too, and dollaro/yen moves are based on real reflation, OR next step is hong kong and china.In this scenario, borrowing yen is good, but using the money to buy anything printed by a bank is suicide.db 03/21/01 12:09 AM RE: yen yen play i mean this. borrow yen. what did u understand?and nasdaq is not money printed by a central bank, not yet.i agree there arent enough yen. last year i was believing yen could even keep level 100, and even attempting 80, because there were too few yen. but yen plays are starting. i see bund rising vs yen down now for instance in europe. ozy miani@consilia.com 03/21/01 12:45 AM yen and euroland the Bund thing is CONSEQUENCE. It is ONE of the many corrections to past wrong political interventions. eur fall vs yen was largely a consequence of ill-fated carry trades, when they met the imbecile european idea to devalue d-mark while "converging". that helped yen and usd deflation.ONE of the strands of a correct maneuver includes eur rise vs yen (among others, this cosmetically benefits portfolios in Japan).G3 central banks and governments NEED to correct a lot of past mistakes. But you cannot just manipulate markets in the "right" direction: there is not such thing as a "legitimate forgery".So, in order to correct and INVERT past mistaken policies, the intervention must address FUNDAMENTAL errors. And one of the biggest political mistakes (and economic imbecilities) of the past few years was european central banks telling the tale that gold was NOT indicating anything, and that gilts od BTPs where the reference point.The other big and global error was the complete misunderstanding of commodities deflation.This why I boringly repeat that targeting the stock markets (or focusing analyses on the stock markets alone) cannot solve anything. I understand this is a big problem: after years when it was not even necessary to THINK about stock market trends (it was up because it was up. stop), nrain damage is so extensive that the BEST minds (yours included) are frantically trying to get in motion and to figure out how markets could interact with money, while the average dumbo is still focused on his portfolio and asking "how could it happen? why me?". But you are still a step BEHIND. At stake is avoding U.S. market to turn into Nikkey '90s/2000 while the best forces of U.S. economy are damaged by the consequences of 1) Greenspan believing he is the master of reality ("reality" being presumed to be what happens on his desk) 2) traders believing he is too ("reality" being presumed to be what happens on their desks) 3) commentators and "traders" (if waking uop in the morning and asking FED what to buy may be called "trading") refusing to see that they are the problem.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/21/01 2:17 PM clarification I was probably abrupt. let me clarify.I mean that: until proven contrary, I will consider ANY attempt to correlate any stock market with any central bank's policy to be FAULTY if it doesn't take into account the two extremes of 1) dollar and yen deflation, and its relatuion to commodities (and political role of commodities) 2) the experiment of euro (fully politically-backed currency).That's why I snapped at your comment about ndx/nky correlation. even what seems a "long detour" (waiting for hedge funds to do this and that etc) is in fact a short circuit until it leaves out the question of fundaments of monetary system.As the Nasdaq case showed, time is ripe for rethinking money to suit "new economy" (I mean "new economy", the real thing: tools, instruments, processes; not "new economics", which is bullshit). It cannot be done until the interlude of "political money" (including pegs, Monopoly money, etc) is thought over and dismissed.Nasdaq crisis happened because fully-politicized central bankers met a silicon valley without any political thought.It will not end until the latter asks political questions to the formers.Stagflation revisited Raman 03/23/01 1:31 PM Stagflation revisited the stagflation thing came as a shock to me hence my innocent questions - I really never thought of it, but when you read the bbg artocle, with stagflation in mind it could form a gentle argument.consilia library heidi@consilia.com 03/23/01 2:27 PM documents The "BBG paper" quoted by Mr Raman is a story by Michael McKee of Bloomberg today: "The more things change, the more they...?".The paper's hypothesis is that 2001 could repeat what he think it was the economic dynamic in 1995: a false (but serious) recession alert and a strong multi-year recovery of the U.S. economy.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/23/01 2:31 PM 1995/2001 first quick, really quick comment on McKee's paper:1) maybe this guy was not yet in business in 1994; he would see 1995 quite in a different way;2) I don't understand what this would have to do with stagflation. If there's a US recovery (1995-->2000 style), it would not be stagnation. Some inflation due to a quick recovery in manufacturing IS NOT stagflation. On the other hand, if stagnation it will be, well, it's exactly the CONTRARY of what McKee says.Raman, this time you gotta explain!Stagflation Raman 03/21/01 12:25 AM Stagflation Just read a bizarre article introducing the concept of stagflation as a likely outcome of events.With more talk about the effects on the Bond marketMarch - Hedge Funds ReviewAny comments. Raman 03/21/01 6:54 PM RE: Stagflation I faxed it you, as you probably saw it's not very factual. It's just the concept that was inetresting an dthe fact that the author is suggesting the bond market is pricing it in. ozy miani@consilia.com 03/22/01 2:50 PM "Stagflation" I just read the "Hedge Fund Review" story about TIPS and stagflation. I'm sorry, but I don't see any story there, other than a plug for TIPS which leaves out a lot of variables.I think that the risk of FED causing a "W" "slowdown" (added volatility, market bounces and time lags between economic indicators) is just confusing a lot of people. hence the hypotheses about "stagflation", which abound lately.I think that analsysts should first try to accurately assess inflation and deflation and the real impact of rates on frowth and markets. Once you get the story clear, you could invent a new concept (or use a controversial one like "stagflation") to explain what happens. But it's not correct to hastily claim "stagflation" just because the FED got some indicators - if I may say - *W*R*O*N*G*.I need more substantial arguments before I buy the "S" story db 03/21/01 2:28 PM RE: Stagflation what i can say is that for the moment there are some traces of inflation including food&energy, ex food and energy there's no trace of inflationECRI is going lower and lower, and historically it was a good leading indicator of inflation. My conclusion is that we won't see stagflation.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/21/01 2:41 PM Stagflation First of all: I didn't read that paper yet. Won't comment about it then.As for the ease of use of the "stagflation" word in some comments I heard and read recently, I have just a couple of things to point out:1) stagflation is an ideological creation; it is, like "disinflation", a keynesian creature. I prefer to stick to inflation and deflation. Everything which tries to sidestep these two notions sounds like legerdemain to me. 2) stagflation is therefore ALWAYS a political issue (look at the '70s). The concept itself belongs to the domain of political money.3) if that's the case (boy, I repeat myself!): please explain me "stagflation" with gold sinking at multi year lows.I don't say it's not. I say: explain me how gold works in a stagflation.Will Raman please post here his summary of that paper?state of the art consilia library analyst@consilia.com 03/17/01 11:52 AM state of the art Following the debate here about stocks and currencies in the past few days (months, years), we just wanted to define what the state of the art is in currency comments. Following is today's "Lex" column ("Financial Times", www.news.ft.com), discussing among others the "divergence" between forex and stock markets, and between yen, usd and eur. Compare with what was has been discussed here."The stock market and the foreign exchange market appear to be looking in different directions. Even the euro bears were forecasting a recovery for the currency at the start of the year. Yet, despite the US slowdown, the narrowing interest rate differentials and Wall Street jitters, the dollar this week hit a 15-year high on the US Federal Reserve's broad trade-weighted index. The euro is below 90 cents - where it was before Christmas. Perhaps forex traders are looking beyond next week's widely expected interest rate cut by the Fed and towards a US recovery. Despite the equity gloom, there are certainly encouraging signs in the US data. And while the US current account deficit hit a new high above $115bn in the fourth quarter of 2000, that was amply covered by capital inflows: a $124bn net inflow into equities and non-government bonds and $50bn of direct investment. The dollar's strength against the yen probably has more to do with speculative flows and hedging, given concerns over Japan's deepening crisis and the expectation that the Bank of Japan will admit its mistake and reinstate the zero interest rate policy. Japanese investors may have contributed to the euro's weakness, repatriating profits before the financial year-end. If the pattern of investment flows from Europe to the US has continued this year, the dollar's strength is not so baffling. But merger and acquisition activity has certainly dried up. If European investors are still piling into the US market, that suggests they have great faith in the Fed. While the euro-zone economy is weakening, and European bourses have followed the US south, the European Central Bank has of course been looking in the other direction itself. At least the outlook for European bonds remains bright."ozy miani@consilia.com 03/17/01 4:33 PM state of the art, art of the state etc ok: what's missing in Lex's column? To Mike the Bike Admin Dept admin@consilia.com 03/13/01 1:45 PM To Mike the Bike Hello Mike.We just received the credit. Thanks, thanks a lot. It took six months and some pressure, but thanks a lot.You lost. And you lost exactly because of that little problem of yours: believing that "one word is worth another".Well, get accustomed: you'll lose again. And for the same reason. See ya at NYC mayoral election, cross-dresser.well done, Bart ozy miani@consilia.com 03/20/01 9:20 PM well done, Bart well done, Bart: 1.5 points in 2 monts, and gold completely flat. Well done. Good job. Start learning Japanese.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/20/01 10:11 PM undertakers I just read that a poor goon who lost all of his money on the stock market claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of the corpse of italian banker Enrico Cuccia. He said he we'll not give the corpse banck until italian mib index rises back to 50000.(What a poor figure for important italian newspapers who spoke of "vampire conspiracies" and "immortality rituals" behind the kidnapping, repeating a well-known neo-nazi legend).But, speaking of bankers and undertakers and corpses and buried-unburied things: there is a banker, a central banker, whom the late Ayn Rand called "the undertaker" [and she didn't mean an entrepreneur] because of his charme, wit and... er... exuberance. And because of his legendary somber neckties.What if I'd kidnap Greenspan's cadaver, and menace not to give it back until gold bounces back over 300?Would it be a federal crime?And is undertaking U.S. and global economy a federal crime?whats the contrary of a "quick fix"? a note for DB ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 5:11 PM what's the contrary of a "quick fix"? a note for DB Today's markets show that it is not difficult to explain what's the contrary of a "quick fix": a usd/jpy rally without a policy turning point (ref gold+crb, euro-silence, nippo-babble) makes a nice case for troubles on peripheral markets (ref: brl, argentina brady, oceania dollars, etc etc).Once a general damage is done to money credibility, eur easily becomes a target (being the acme of currency politicization). So: yen/eur did not fall under levels which keep from a reflatory fall (reflation is not, if gold is weak); this emphasized the lack of policy changes; then the eur has been the victim; hence usd/eur bounce (while in the past few months, until january, usd/jpy bounce then yen/eur fall benefited eur/usd too.yen/eur (the great hero of 1997/1999 policy mistakes and euro debt tricks) is in this case a springboard for usd/eur WHEN gold shows that G3s are not yet understanding US and Japan need reflation.It doesn't take much money to reverse it. It'd take just a couple of seppukus. But this fucking fascination of you guys for Merlin Greenspan makes the idea unspeakable.Suicide is not a solution? It is. Especially the suicide of carefully selected guys. We can't wait for age to take care of central bankers.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 5:13 PM speaking of which speaking of which: is Jason Shapiro still long AUD?And who pays his food and rent?Poor woman...Raman 03/16/01 5:29 PM RE: speaking of which I think that website he writes yesterdays news on paysozy miani@consilia.com 03/16/01 5:46 PM think not the website where they give away advice for free?and where the make money selling banners?Their last advertiser was a website which is a portal which introduces to portals which link to search engines which find websites which give away for free mp3 files of oldies but goldies. Their only customer is JJ, who goes bananas when he hears the "oldie but goldie" line, believing they deal in granmas.As you may well know (especially if you sometimes watch at Nasdaq prices) free internet referee between websites is a very lucrative business. Bocconi and Rum ozy miani@consilia.com 03/02/01 3:59 PM Bocconi and Rum Bocconi University (Milano, Italy) has been chosen by Cuba (a well-know off-shore caraibic tax heaven) for a two-year training program for cuban central bankers. german universities will take part in the programm too. The course will be followed by internships for cuban bankers as several european central banks. The candidates who will best comply with the strict mixed-economy standards followed at bocconi, will be employed as hedge-fund commentators.It seems that Lesotho university was offered the job but declined: "we are trying to distance ourselves from the banana-image we earned by training Tito Mboweni", said a spokesman: "we deprogrammed him after the white establishment in SA universities tried to brainwash him, but we can't use those method again. international community is scrutinizing us, and loss of prestige is just not worth the money. let the italians do it".bong bong ozy miani@consilia.com 02/23/01 6:50 PM bong bong here goes ndx 2000. There are surely better reasons for it than just some beach hedge fund goin' belly up.But it's anyway worth quoting the wise man who said: "it's better to err on the long side, because that way you get bailed out by Greenspan".You will never be forgotten.joe melli@consilia.com 02/24/01 10:36 AM V "here goes"? Careful. This will be the "V" festival. Frx, several commodities and relevant stock indexes are ready for it. "V" galore until they become "W"s.ozy miani@consilia.com 02/24/01 11:23 AM V, W, M [btw: bong bong] Correct. Eg: spxf fall towards and under 158 on monday's open was the usual powerful sell signal. Now, 148 support (and next strong sell) held. Imagine a spxf bounce from 148 to 155/158: it would be good for inducing a nice V bounce in dow and ndx too [148 breakdown needed for a serious crash on major indexes]. was this the case on friday [bottoming at 148]? look at frx and emerging frx. Oh, btw: remember: bong, bong!Raman 02/28/01 1:49 PM RE: V, W, M [btw: bong bong] Wouldn't it be wise to look at the sharp break on the bond yield?joe+ozy miani@consilia.com 02/25/01 3:43 PM RE: V, W, M [btw: bong bong] ask to Heidi for further details and analysis about all of the above Death tax and a psychoterapeutic society ozy miani@consilia.com 03/08/01 3:57 PM Death tax and a psychoterapeutic society The following letter was written as a comment about a column by Melik Kaylan, published by "Wall Street Journal" on march 6th, 2001. The column objected to Mr W.Buffet's, Mr William Gates Sr's, mr Bloomberg's et al. positions about inheritance taxes. Mr Kaylan,I agree with your position on the death tax, and I completely disagree with what has been written on the subject by Mr Gates Sr and the likes.But the arguments used in a controversy are as important as the conclusions. And they often determine the outcome.I think you brilliantly discussed the many flaws of Mr Buffet's argument for the death tax, and their historical and REMOTE cultural roots.But you omitted the simplest of all objections, and the one which is most directly related to the CONTEMPORARY cultural climate (this is especially important when it comes to objecting to Mr Gates, who is presumed to herald not only capitalism, but NEW capitalism).The question is:* are taxes a psychological and moral instrument?* is the purpose of any tax the moral education and the psychological conditioning of anyone?* is the state in charge of enhancing or taming the entrepreneurial spirit of anybody?* is the state a therapist? a teacher? and are taxes its medications and lessons?* is the education of spoiled kids [the cure of idiots, the correction of perverts, etc] the reason why taxes exist?I think the most hair-rising aspect of this controversy is that it further advances a therapeutic [hence totalitarian] model of society. An absurd confusion between the state's and the the family's tasks and duties.Mr Gates Sr's campaign (Mr Bloomberg's, Mr Buffet's, etc) is a new ageist and new leftist campaign for a therapeutic model of politics, economy and society.It is a remnant of the worst years of leftist influence on America. America has just got rid of a President who wanted to be judged in therapeutical, instead of political, terms. Is America going to manage its money in psychiatric terms too?Arguing about the best ways to obtain good therapeutic results on the kids, by using taxes as character-moulding medications, is simply missing the MAIN point.These people are not Puritans. They belong to a far more recent tradition. They are good sons of the '70s. Their over-psychologization of issues is a consequence of that [taxes as a psychological problem? Cool, man! Like, you mean... It's all in your head, right? relax, and pay.. it will make you feel better. If you are a conservative, just don't inhale].I thought that making money was the CONSEQUENCE of living and working: and living and working is not the state's business: it's the business of individuals and their families. Money is a SIGN of something that really happens (be it hard work, or the generous gift of a hard-working father, meaning sincere affection and trust in the education he gave to his kids). Money doesn't ACT. People do. Acting on money will not change the effects of a bad or good education. A PARENT can use money as a SIGN in the context of an education (disinheriting a son CAN be PART of an articulate education strategy).But simply saying that the state can act on the character of people, through the tax money, is not only technically wrong. It is a political absurdity.The cultural influence of '70's ideology on the new economy has not been thoroughly assessed yet. It has dark sides too.In your brilliant column you grasped the CONSEQUENCES of all of this perfectly.That's why you noticed that President Mao and some CEOs have something in common.Best regards, 03/12/01 2:35 AM RE: Death tax and a psychoterapeutic society Foucauld offfrx tech + macro igor+ozy feldman@consilia.com 02/15/01 12:35 AM frx tech + macro here we go. yen/eur and usd/eur in "policy alert" zone. usd/jpy weakness not yet in red alert zone, but gold is awful and t-bonds have seen better days. aud, nzd and cad weak. recent tour of comments about intervention was not clear nor serious. all stops out, ready for a rough ride short and possibly medium term. only serious policy intervention on the bounce and gold bounce clear the path for long/term eur and chf uptrend. next days/weekend crucialozy miani@consilia.com 02/15/01 4:54 PM frx tech + macro / EUR EU prez Prodi dumbo as usual. Frightened by eur "possibly becoming too strong". Right, but too strong by reference to WHAT? Recent usd and yen fall vs eur didn't reflate the two by reference to gold (which is what is needed). it just strenghtened eur vs gold. But such is the perversion of eurocrats when money is concerned, that EU prez can't look beyond eus/usd exchange rate. Usd fall vs gold (more: yen fall vs gold), and eur NOT strenghtening vs gold, wouldn't deflate eur. So: a DEBASED euro is EXACTLY the kind of euro which could become "too strong". QED. ozy miani@consilia.com 02/16/01 12:50 AM frx macro The same problem happened this morning with O'Neill's comments. I mean: Prodi's basic logical problem is shared by many market participants: usd/jpy instability (=due to deflation) moves yen/eur and usd/eur. The result is that usd/eur and usd/jpy risk OPPOSITE directional reactions to instability. So, it's misleading to translate "strong dollar" comments (or presumed comments) into a "G3" intervention framework. Ths issue is: US's and Jap and Euroland's policy ("intervention" INCLUDED IF necessary), included "strong dollar" policy, by reference to economy and mkts, not "G3" frx+macro consilia heidi@consilia.com 03/07/01 1:56 PM frx+macro A complimentary copy of most recent analysis on frx and macro issues related to the "yen node" is available upon request. Mail heidi@consilia.com for your copy.The paper will be distributed at the company's discretion.GDP Raman 02/28/01 2:01 PM GDP 0zy miani@consilia.com 02/28/01 3:52 PM GDP & Bart I think Bart Greenspan just said he has not a clear idea about what he has got to do; but he didn't say the right thing: that he (FED) cannot solve the problem he contributed to create. Focusing on this guy is a waste of time. ozy miani@consilia.com 02/28/01 3:58 PM GDP & Bart what he can't tell is: I thought it was a "V", but I helped make it a "W" looking dangerously like a "M". ozy miani@consilia.com 02/28/01 4:13 PM GDP & Bart not clear enough? Ok: what until now was presumed to be a "smart" bart-like obfuscation strategy (making rate moves undetectable beyond a 30/60 days horizon) is just: a dumb FED coping with "W --> M --> L" risks. Politics needed ASAP. Raman 02/28/01 2:02 PM RE: GDP > Any comments, on a positive suprise from the GDP figures.onNasdaq and especiallyBond marketthanks> ozy miani@consilia.com 02/28/01 3:19 PM RE: RE: GDP hi. in the paper that Heidi sent you, there are some elements about tyx/spxf correlation. far more indirect and meandering than the statistical correlation. take a look at the paper and tell me. I love trade union leaders turned central bankers ozy miani@consilia.com 02/16/01 4:24 PM I love trade union leaders turned central bankers I love trade union leaders turned central bankers. South Africa has one one of the best exemples among them. But South Africa has several funny puppets in its show. For exemple: one of most intersting macroeconomic problems in current scenario is the sharp divergence btw gold and oil (see this week: US PPI data and gold/currency moves). Well, gold resumes its plunge ---> Mbeki goes paying hommage to Saudis. No matter how peripheric, ZAR is always a powerful source of metaphors and odd signals.yagotta be kidding no_frogallectuals_please@hotmail.com 02/16/01 9:53 PM RE: I love trade union leaders turned central bankers its easy to get confusing signals when the inputs are plain wrong. the govenor of the reserve bank of s. africa is called tito mboweni ( his predecessor was chris stals). thabo mbeki is the president of the country( his predecessor was nelson mandela). aside from being both morons the have nothing in common (despite their names they aren't even both bantu).my, my ARE slipping especially since mbeki was never in cotasu the anc trade union. he was a big shot in the anc but never in the unions. the union chief whi became a big private investor was.....(do your own homework)ozy miani@consilia.com 02/18/01 12:20 AM "why Johnny can't read", aka "L'idiot international" Wrong. Flat wrong.Please read carefully what I write before answering.Better: please READ. Anything. Try, for once.I didn't say that Mbeki is the central banker in SA. Read. I started by saying that countries where trade unionists are central bankers are usually doomed (since last days we were discussing UE and ECB, see below). Then I went on about SA, saying they have other interesting puppets in the show, eg Mbeki.Do you know what "read" means? No. As usual."Don't let the real content of a text interphere with your preconceived notions", huh?The fact that you ignore anything about Mbeki, Mboweni, gold or crude, is absolutely marginal. The fact that you sidestep the issues (name, gold, crude, money) and focus on hangnails is just a consequence of this little fact: you cannot read.This is the real problem.May I suggest that good old book, "Why Johnny can't read"? The consequences of what that book analyzed are not yet fully understood.ozy miani@consilia.com 02/18/01 12:56 AM between: Why johnny can't trade, either Between: there must be a HUGE eur fall coming, and a HUGE yen comeback in the cards. There is a clear and unmistakable signal of that: the same poor fellow who in last months got slammed by yen/eur fall, and who retired in his cave to lick his wounds [see the message here on jan 21st], yesterday came back in garrulous mode.Since he needs a substantial eur fall to reduce his losses, and presuming that somebody recently explained him something of substance about markets, such euphoric mood swing is a telling signal.Are we in the business of analyzing idiots? No we are not. But why should I leave such a juicy sympthom unchallenged? ozy miani@consilia.com 02/18/01 1:23 PM and, finally: why johnny can't control his rage I seize the opportunity for a comment about "rage management" too. "Rage management" is a scam. Somebody who needs rage management courses or therapy, or recommends them, is simply managing symptoms instead of the roots of problems. It's like ignoring philosophy and practicing zen. Or like being enable to read and taking a writing course. Or like being a moron and attend a MBA.What is "rage"? I mean, what kind of sympthom is it? Rage is a funny sympthom: it is about WRITING. It is about not being able to leave a mark on reality through words. Not being able to make things different by naming them, identifying them THEN modifying them, creates what's called "rage". That is: trying to TWIST things or to destroy them. Destruction is in this case a parody of creation (both are ways to intrioduce differences).Rage management course are, then, courses in "accepting one's own analphabetism".Of course, if one's philosophical premises are zen-buddhists, and his idea of reality is of Hofstadter-Dennett quality, rage and dyslexia (or careful and painstaking anal managment of language imperfections) will permeate all of his life.It' not difficult, then, to understand why Slavina recommends such rage therapy courses and why JJ is eager to state that he attended one."Om... Padme om... Mane padme om...".[btw: who knows the translation of "Om, padme om, mane padme om", as given by former Bundesbank prez Schlesinger? Prize for the first 25 right answers is a job at IMF helping african and asian countries to starve. Be quick to answer, because a well-known dutch former trade unions leader turned central banker is eager to get the job: he has a project for african monetary union, and he wants to share it ASAP with his collegue Mboweni. First issue at hand: "Why gold has nothing to do with money". maybe they need Slavina back there].mind vs body and new economy ozy miani@consilia.com 02/19/01 6:16 PM mind vs body and new economy Hu ho. Should I file this under "epidemic psychophysical breakdowns"? Or?One week after the "great fatigue" which forced Arredondo to call it quits "for personal reasons"; today the boss of Yahoo Asia calls it quits for "personal reasons" too.Nobody talks about money or about losing 86% of market capitalization: it's all about "stress management" and "long hours". And children and taking care of the dog. Real values. Of course. Checked Arredondo's "long hours", and it seemed they amounted to 14/16, business lunches and dinners included.Hypotheses for myself:1) this people has no idea about working hours of a normal dumbo like any old-economy entrepreneur; meaning 14/16 hours for 4 years are normal training period of the average sales manager;2) mind/body dychotomy problem is so entrenched in the logic premises of hot-air-businesses like yhoo, that it seems normal to use a "psychophysical" failure as an alibi.I think there are far less than six degrees of separation between fake money and mind/body disconnection.Nasdaq, SPXF and monetary issues consilia heidi@consilia.com 02/25/01 1:05 PM Nasdaq, SPXF and monetary issues A complimentary paper about recent moves of NDX, COMP, SPXF and their causes, correlation and prospects is available upon request. The text will be delivered at the firm's discretion.old stuff. older than currently thought ozy miani@consilia.com 02/19/01 6:03 PM old stuff. older than currently thought "In order to observe, your intellect must pause from activity; yet it is this very activity that you want to observe. If you cannot effect that oause, you cannot observe; if you effect it, there is nothing to observe [here he is wrong]. The results of such method are in proportion to its absurdity".A. Comte, 1896.Meaning that: Comte made the same errors as Hofstadter and Co about consciousness, only one century earlier. Much ado etc etc.Boy is this job boringOrange / quote of the day consilia library heidi@consilia.com 02/14/01 5:36 PM Orange / quote of the day "Give not this wrotten orange to your friends"W Shakespeare, Much Ado about Nothing, Act 1, Scene 4 (courtesy of Savana Mgt) ozy miani@consilia.com 02/14/01 5:44 PM Apples and Oranges The Conspiracy is definitely there. Follow me:1) Turing, who introduced communism and omosexuality (not to mention mental disorder and epistemological craters) in the information technology world, kills himself eating a apple;2) years after, Apple tries to sidestep IBM and MSFT, and it's sweeped off;3) a Orange chokes eurolandian telecoms.Coincidence? I think not.Not to mention Orange County's role in financial destabilization of America and in California's energy crisis."Skulls and Bones" are small fry. "Apples and Oranges" are the real Evil Masters.shiiiiiiiiiiiimon benny admiral@consilia.com 03/02/01 3:21 PM shiiiiiiiiiiiimon Peres Foreign Minister.It was worth voting (no).Things to do in Chicago when you're long & wrong consilia library heidi@consilia.com 03/02/01 4:32 PM Things to do in Chicago when you're long & wrong quote from well-known newswire:""Silly rumors from Chicago about rate cutsFutures sources here are spreading silly rumors that the Fed will cut between meetings. As Greenspan is currently speaking, the notion sounds completely ridiculous. What is the world's biggest banker about to do? Stop speaking and get on the phone to his Fed colleagues? Instead, it sounds someone long & wrong is trying to spoof the market higher."" Turing, lies and politics consilia library heidi@consilia.com 02/14/01 5:05 PM turing, lies and politics "Turing believes machines thinkTuring lies to menTherefore machines do not think"[A.M.Turing, letter to N.Routledge, 1952, published only after 1983]zen& the art of stupidity no_frogallectuals_please@hotmail.com 02/15/01 7:19 PM RE: turing, lies and politics the wounder od silogisms and interpretation of contextsome dogs have fleassome quoters (as in a person who quotes) are dogstherefore either some quoters have fleasor some fleas have quoterssome thing that is correct out of context is garbageand basing logic on faulty premises and bad silogisms is still garbage.and so the point is?ozy miani@consilia.com 02/18/01 12:37 AM ok. gimme the "context" ok. gimme the context. What was the context? Does it really contradict the way I quoted Turing's phrase? Did you read the letter? Dis your read the answer? Do you know what Turing was talking about?["read"? "what is "reading""?] consilia library heidi@consilia.com 02/14/01 5:56 PM Turing test and Plato's dialogue (then Descartes' lie) "The question and answer method seems to be suitable for introducing almost any one of the fields of human endeavour" (A.M.Turing, "Computing machinery and intelligence", in Mind, 54, 236, 1950) consilia library heidi@consilia.com 02/14/01 6:00 PM Turing test and sexuality "We wish to exclude from the machines men born in the usual manner. It is difficult to frame the definitions as to satisfy these three conditions. One might for instance insist that the team of engineers should be all of one sex".[A.M.Turing, "Computing machinery and intelligence", in Mind, 54.236.1950] Wako, wacko... joe melli@consilia.com 02/19/01 10:57 PM Wako, wacko... Spoiled kid. But he was tender when he tried to support me. Der Chef miani@consilia.com 02/19/01 10:58 PM RE: Wako, wacko... Sure. How do you feel in the role of the brainwashed cult-follower? joe melli@consilia.com 02/19/01 11:03 PM RE: RE: Wako, wacko... I feel flattered but somehow disappointed. "Cult"? "1984"? It is not enough. I'd like them to compare you to Hitler. Der Chef miani@consilia.com 02/19/01 11:06 PM Wako, wacko... qwack qwack a good exemple of rage management and zen-buddhist self-costraint amd serenity though...Anyway: it's enough for now. Go back to your barrack, slave! Wankers Thud McGuffin 03/11/01 4:20 AM Wankers 03/11/01 4:22 AM RE: Wankers > You are all wankers. I laugh at your pseudo-intellectual mental wanking. hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Grow up. WANKERS!Rgds,T McGuffin esq.> webmaster heidi@consilia.com 03/11/01 11:26 AM Wankers You are welcome, Mr. MgGuffin.Some good old irritation towards thought was needed here, wasn't it?With just a little more training, you will be able to write your graffiti without trying twice to post them.03/12/01 2:29 AM RE: Wankers And as for you, Turdmasturbater, I thought this was a free forum.03/12/01 2:23 AM RE: Wankers Wanker. Stupid wanker. You are a fool. I discard your foolishness. And that idiot Miani. He called me a turd for predicting stagflation. He is a shithead.Rgds,Thud.ozy 03/12/01 6:47 PM wankers? Ok. So I could identify our friend "Thud McGuffin". I apologize for doubting it. Our juvenile guest is really Stephen Caldwell of Schroder Investments, whose mail address is copyright@bloomberg.net.Good.Pity I couldn't find any messageboard or chat on Schroders' website, where I could comment with the same freedom of speech that Steve enjoys here. Nor did I find one on Caldwell's website.Until Schroders or Thud reciprocates, Thud is a guest here. "Guest" is an euphemism for "cadger".Any comment by "Thud" about how "free" this website is or is not, is then simply pathetic.It's free as in "freedom", not as in "free lunch".In short: you can kiss my ass, Steve. Now, back to more serious questions: stagflation.ozy miani@consilia.com 03/12/01 2:22 PM Stagflation hello Thud (if you are Thud, aka Stephen Caldwell. Otherwise, just fuck off).1) I never called you a turd for predicting stagflation;2) You never articulated a stagflation forecasting. At least, not speaking to me. You just hinted (once) at some upwards price pressure on metal retailers during US "slowdown", and reported that somebody was using the term "stagflation". I objected that "stagflation" requires a well-entrenched keynesian policy, and that I thought that a different thing was happening: a long/term deflation (look at gold, soft commodities, t-bonds, us curve, dollar) was happening; the stock market (expecially nasdaq was using stocks as money to reflate, fighting against the FED). Inflation risks persisted (and still persist) though for several reasons: 1)debasing money is inflationary by definition; 2) using stocks as money brought an inflationary risk; 3) the geopolitical reaction of oil producing countries to the abovementioned deflation inflated the price of crude and energy. Etc.I then said it was not just and endogenous case of academic stagflation: the paralell existence of a deflation and of price pressures was (is) related to G3(+vassals) monetary policy mistakes.This is not what you would exactly call a stagflation.It certainly is a consequence of the keynesian legacy embedded in "new age economics". But this is another chapter. Itchy fingers? Suck them, pls heidi the webmaster info@consilia.com 11/18/00 6:18 PM Itchy fingers? Suck them, pls Hello. I spent my saturday afternoon "cleaning" double or treble postings by "guest44" and/or "guest875". One of them explained in chat that he continues to "click" on the button for no reason, "just like you'd do on a elevator button". Ok: 1) wise man from China says "go to bed with itchy ass, wake up with smelly fingers". What if you go to bed with itchy fingers? 2) wise man from Wien says: "Nervous finger is hysteric symptom from female masturbation". You choose which one suits you best. Have a nice weekend. guest44 11/19/00 5:08 AM This Heidi is a yodel of laughs. First off, apologies to Ozy's chatroom cleaning lady "Heidi," for the unnecessary multiple postings. I shall take note from commiting such future misdemeanors.Also, Heidi was kind enough to list a couple of choices for me. I choose number 2 as my sympton. As an international playboy, I quite pride myself in an inherent artful facility for tender ministrations demanded by a woman's love-button. That, and the ability to lick clit.heidi the webmistress info 11/19/00 12:15 AM from a "cleaning lady" to a kneeling man In other words: impotent Guest875 11/20/00 1:27 AM RE: from a Not at all. More like, small dick. But I make up for it in other ways. I can do push-ups with my tongue.Frogallectuals and the indifference in political matters ozy miani@consilia.com 11/20/00 2:43 PM Frogallectuals and the indifference in political matters If i understand well what the neologism "frogallectual" means, well, David Ignatius is the Nobel laureate of frogallectualism. His report from Paris for the "Washington Post", re Leonard Bernstein celebration, is a perfect exemple of intellectual falsification.Ignatius exentially snubs the importance of current political and legal dispute on vote certification in the US. He writes that that small "freak show" doesn't change the great american past and future. If this was meant to say that european and thirld-world imbeciles who sneer at a apresumed "failure of american institutions" are 1) wrong, 2) suicide, then I agree. But this is not the case. I won't make it long here. I just will list WHAT Ignatius saw in Bernstein's celebration, which he considers "the best" of America, good enough to legimitize oblivion of some minor achievements like the rule of law (which are at risk in the electoral dispute). Forget law and constitution, real America is:1) the spouse who sacrifices herself letting her husband chase anothere woman;2) LL COOL J3) the great success in all of europe and thorld world of african american culture4) french imitations of hip-hop (french rap to acknowledge ban on english language by french radio. 5) Americans who find this is not a problem; 6) bernstein's fascination with marlon brando in vest+leather7) the song synthesizing the "Washington Post"'s geopolitical focus: "Somewhere"8) receptions at OECD's and UNESCO ambassadors. In Paris, of course.This is the state of art today. Anybody a better definition of "frogallectual"? Would be welcome.voltaire candide@sorbonne.edu 12/04/00 1:06 PM RE: Frogallectuals and the indifference in political matters a frogallectual is the kind of person that could write something like this a either see great meaning in it or as a tool to find confirmation of his very personal and narrow minded views of the world, which in the frogallectual's estimation non only dosen't understand his brilliance but should offer him a tenured position to write about the meaning of the university tenure system on the diffusion of hip hop cultures amongst verlain speaking malians.ozy miani@consilia.com 12/09/00 12:15 AM Intellectuals, French ideology and lies The problem with the above message by "voltaire" is NOT the fact that it is in itself a good exemple of frogallectualism (the gratuitous sneering at the world without any meaning); the problem (and the matter of interest) is that the mail address is FAKE. Now, LIE has a central point in "french ideology": to put it simply: Descartes' notion of mind and language (including mathematics) REQUIRES man to lie. All the following debate about "verification" and "falsification" between Popperians and their presumed adversaries, deals with this. Obviously, intervening in an intellectual debate using a fake e-mail is a wonderful example of it. Some behaviours are now so deeply entrenched in ideology, that FOGallectuals aren't even aware to be compulsory liars.Thanks to "voltaire" for this good example of anti-scientific thought. voltaire candide@sorbonne.edu 12/12/00 11:15 AM RE: Intellectuals, French ideology and lies typical, we get a frogellectual rant on truth and consequences. you ask for an e-mail address , you don't ask for a >>>vaild<<< e-mail address. from faulty premises, wild assumptions and fuzzy reasoning is the great edifice of windy,vacous frogellectuallism born. apart from which is you had actually tried mailing candide you might have found some thing interesting ( assuming the mail butler is running). so did i say the lazyness of smugness?OZYMIANI miani@consilia.com 12/12/00 12:14 AM lies and damn lies I see. well: 1) when you buy a slice of bread, do you need to ask "a non poisonous slice of bread"? Or do you presume it to be good? Well: you just NOTIFIED that all your assertions have to be presumed to be a lie (different from scientifically "false" until proved otherwise). You are confirming what I said. You are using LIE as a metalanguage. Not difficult to see that this wastes 99% of your brain capacity in circumnavigating lies. It will take lot of time for you to face reality, and you will have just 1% of your brain available to face it. Good luck. 2) we tried to use your address address, and it just "didn't exist". Please find a better remailer, you cheapskate: the opne you currently use is wasting your money. You found a crook. Nice retaliation by reality.Guest458 HALDE@STARGATE.NET 12/13/00 7:24 PM RE: lies and damn lies the a propri assumption is the down fall of many not properly trained logicians who try to hide their own short commingsbehind a thin veneer of logic.what is the definition of an e-mail address: is it the formof and address ie idiot@foools.edu or its function or its ability to providea point of contact with a person, no matter the form? in this case where does no_frogalectuals_please@hotmail.com fall?it is a vaild e-mail address even though it is not validin the strict sense implied by our frogallectual in chief ozy.is the use of candide@sorbonne.edu to sign a post by voltaire lying?is he ex post ( verified after the post) of the validity ofthis non defined e-mail address a further proof of both poor pragma and praxis( frogallectual terms meaning praticing what you preach).of course this socratic method of proving the vacuity ofa frogellectual position is not considered valid. however if the same argument is couched in terms of goedelian refution of rullelian scientific certantyit become a vaild argument because it is appropiately obscure.alas the purpose of knowledge is not to bolster pooregos but to enlighten the mind. any fool who must brandhis ideas through the thoughts of the great the abstruse andthe (probably)dead can't be said to have a true mind,since he is interested in knowledge for exclusion. forexample confronted with a painting a frogellectual will gass on and when met this a blank stare utter"you don't understand the gombrician sense of estetics in this painting well you peasant, i fart in your general direction" vsa normal preson asking "why do you like this painting" but returning to the point we are trying to makethe importance of premises in the bulding oflogical constructs and the difficulty ofcreating an adequate, coherent language( verbal logical and mathematical) todescribe our logical construct is the gaping flawboth in modern abstract thought and is at the heart of both physics and its stepsisters like econophysics.to put it in simple termsthe quantification (the translation in numbers)of phenomena (stuff in our lives)yields certain results whose form shape and colour is but the reflection of the starting assumptions needed to make the initial mapping (the translation of "stuff" into numbers). anybody trying to speculate in theoptions market should never forget this. a samll change on your initial assumptions, like moving from constant volatilityin option pricing to variable volatiility and liquiditywill have verry large effects on your net worth. Eddie johngalt@starsofti.com 12/15/00 5:53 PM The practical purpose of e-mail addresses Your philosophical lessons are quite impossible to understand for me. But I think that the practical purpose of e-mail addresses is to allow mail delivery. I tried to send a message to "Candide", but my mail program could not deliver it. The address leads nowhere. I'm confused. In theory what you people say sounds interesting, but where do I send my mail?Eddie johngalt@starsofti.com 12/15/00 6:20 PM The purpose of e-mail addresses I think I know the mail address of Candide: it is . Better: my mail was not rejected by this address. I don't know if the mail reached the addressee. The mail I sent to was rejected. But maybe a copy of it reached the addressee. I wonder. heidi heidi@consilia.com 12/14/00 5:11 PM names, signifiers, web names and sexual indifference Hello. I am just the assistant here. I thought you'd find interesting the following report ("USA Today") about this federal judge's ideas about web names. It seems he mistook NAMES for SIGNIFIERS. Is a name just a signifier (in this judiciary case: "is the name just an address?"). I found it interesting because:1) it exemplifies the link between abolition of name and judiciary witch hunt (see ozy's notes about descartes/devil). Why nuns have no family names? why don't whores have surnames either?2) it deals with names/signifiers/web addresses3) it deals with property rights and freedom of speech. heidi heidi@consilia.com 12/14/00 5:12 PM oops. here's the paper oops. i forgot to paste the story I promised. Here it is:Judge rules against profane Web domainsCONCORD, N.H. (AP) - Free speech may prevail elsewhere on the Internet, but not when it comes to typing www.(pickanyobscenity).com.At least that's one federal judge's opinion, ruling in an adult Web site case. Before Judge Steven McAuliffe was the question of whether the First Amendment protects World Wide Web addresses. Do they serve to communicate, or to navigate? McAuliffe found for navigation. Free-speech advocates think the judge grossly underestimated the communicative power of domain names. ''They are more than just signposts,'' said Barry Steinhardt, associate director of the American Civil Liberties Union. ''If they weren't, then millions of dollars would not be spent to buy the most desirable names and protect copyrights.'' McAuliffe ruled in a case filed by Lynn Haberstroh, of Raymond, N.H., and National A-1 Advertising, of Philadelphia. The plaintiffs wanted to include obscene or vulgar words in addresses for their adult Web sites. Network Solutions, appointed by the government to register Net addresses, had rejected some 30 requested addresses, arguing that they contained words prohibited by its 1996 decency policy. McAuliffe said Network Solutions did not violate the plaintiffs' rights in its refusal. ''Unlike streets, sidewalks and parks, the space occupied by second-level domain names does not constitute a traditional public forum for discussion and debate,'' he said. The judge agreed that the online world has become a forum for public debate, but said that does not mean that each and every Web address is a soapbox. Web addresses don't function the same as billboards or radio broadcasts, McAuliffe said. Haberstroh's lawyer said his client was considering an appeal, but Richard Cohen, president of National A-1, said his company doesn't have the resources to fight McAuliffe's Sept. 28 ruling. Cohen said there's no doubt in his mind that Web addresses are communicative. ''When you're looking for antiques, the first thing you would put in is antiques.com,'' he said. Network Solutions did not return calls seeking comment. Domain names originated out of a need to simplify navigation of the Internet. Web addresses in their truest form are strings of numbers, such as 192.168.0.10. Domain names are easier to remember than those strings. Karen Coyle, spokeswoman for Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility in Palo Alto, Calif., said domain names weren't intended to express concepts the way they are being used today. But they evolved that way, she said, because rules weren't written to govern their use. Don Heath, president of the Internet Society, a Reston, Va., group that tracks and coordinates some of the Net's technical functions, said McAuliffe's ruling could affect battles over trademarks in Web addresses. If a domain name has no communicative value, Heath said, then on what grounds could a company sue to prevent individuals from registering Web sites that include its name? But Michael Froomkin, a law professor at the University of Miami, said the judge's decision actually strengthens trademark protections. Removing Web addresses from protected speech, he said, prevents individuals from arguing that the terms belong in the public domain for use by anyone. In his ruling, McAuliffe also found that Network Solutions was not a state actor and thus not subject to the First Amendment. Haberstroh and National A-1 had argued that because the government in 1992 appointed Network Solutions to oversee domain name registrations, it was acting as an agent of the government. While the ruling does allow Network Solutions to continue to enforce its decency policy, it doesn't forbid use of vulgarities in domain names altogether. Competing registration companies began appearing in 1999, and some have been happy to register any Web addresses. In fact, several of the names Haberstroh and National A-1 sought to reserve in 1998 have since been registered by others. yosi melli@consilia.com 12/14/00 3:48 PM Poor Gore. With friends like these... And all of this was meant to defend David Ignatius? Now I understand how the full support of media and intellectuals could not help Gore. Thanks god (and I'm no less an atheist than my less famous collegue ozy) ozy miani@consilia.com 12/14/00 3:41 PM oh my god Oh, my god... and I am an atheist. ozy miani@consilia.com 12/14/00 4:08 PM bibliography To be more specific: for a bibliography about how language was destroyed and could generate both Gore's delirium about ballots with feeelings, and "candide"'s delirium about existence being "an arbitrary assumption" and names no relation to things, please read: John Hospers, "An Introduction to Philosophical Analysis" (Prentice Hall, New York 1953, 3rd edition 1988). It is an awful book. John Hospers is (ah! coincidence? I think not) THE John Hospers who later became the first "libertarian" candidate to US presidency.Anyway, "multiplication of entities" in Hospers' book (one of the founders of linguistic analysis, if it had foundations) perfectly equates the metonimic structure of our "candide"'s speech. "metonimic structure" meaning: once you empty NAMES, you get an infinite permutation of signifiers with no sense. You feel then compelled to an infinite regression or an infinite "fugue of ideas".An exemple: the above posting by "candide".guess who no_frogallectuals_please@hotmail.com 12/14/00 5:07 PM RE: bibliography this proves the point on the vacuity of frogellactualism. one presents the fallicy of a systematic codification of formal language in terms of somthing pratical as the meaning and use of e-mail addresses. and one is told to read introductory philophy. my case comes mutandis mutandis from pages 37-44 of one of the most powerful exegisis of mathematical thought, a more demanding and influential branch of philosophy is you will. it called godel's proof by nagel and newman ny uni press 1958. the godel in question needs no presentation, i hope .this is a book written for non mathmaticians and requires only a modicum of commonsense to understand. i know this is a rare commodity in frogellectual land, but hope springs eternal.as for an amusing read and a most enguaging burst of the frogllectual bubble i reccomend " surely you're joking mr feynman" naturally the feynman in question is the famous quantum physicyst but most telling for the pressed frogelectual is the story called "o americano otra vez" pages 199-219 in the norton 1985 paper back edition. In this story amongts other things he tells the sad story of brazil top scientists knowing all the theory books and the ability do proofs at the drop of a hat but when presented with real world problems that required the applications of the same proof, well....they were simply stumped. Why apply any thing when you knew all the litterature?as the wise man says never recommmed a book unless you are willing to read some your self and know how to cook crow. the rest, as they say on the american plains,is bison shit.ozy miani@consilia.com 12/14/00 5:54 PM once again 1) Once again, ME, I read "goedel's proof", and YOU, you didn't read Hospers' book. BUT you felt compelled to comment on a book you didn't read. Which is what you do usually. I didn't suggest it AS AN "INTRODUCTION", which it is NOT. That's the TITLE, but you better READ books, not just QUOTE them (are you sure you are not Shapiro, who "knew" that Greenspan is quoted in "Atlas Shrugged" but couldn't find the page - which doesn't exist- ?). Hospers' book is a MANIFESTO. I suggested to read it because it contains the same ideological premises of the pityful mud in which you are struggling since I caught you LYING. As usual, you didn't read it, THEN you share its fallacies.But you don't read books: you REACT to their titles. You don't know authors, you REACT to their names. Good. Good. That's why you panic if one of your "reference" authors is even remotely criticized. (YOU can't be criticized, because you never express ONE single thesis of your own).These are the damages of Bocconi protracted adolescences which extend seamlessly in teacher's senility.2)as for the sneering at books when theory is at stake, that's really laughable. This discussion started because YOU, in PRACTICE, couldn't provide your mail address. You felt compelled to provide one, but false. Using a false name, etc etc. I just discussed why it could happen. All this would be "abstract"? You can't even talk without sliding away from naming things, and YOU speak of "facing reality"? Bof...I discussed this. And I stressed some consequences of your perverse approach.You don't even know that this "sliding" has a technical name in logics, which is "metonimia"? No idea of what relation this has with the naming function?Let me put it simple: do you agree with Hospers? Yes, not? Why?ozy miani@consilia.com 12/14/00 6:00 PM oops: godel a propos de godel: all the debate about godel's consequences on linguistics is FOCUSED on distinction btw signifiers and names. That's where the paradox of liar fails. there are no first principles no_forgallectuals_please@hotmail.com 12/15/00 4:39 PM first principles who gives a flying fiddle about a reductionist application of godel's proof to linguistics. godel proof is for any formalized language and to a true student of philosophy language is any formalized system of reasoning ( of which language is but a very tiny no formally consistent ugly step sister). as usual poor premesises lead to bad outcomen. so to clarify the debate so far what we are REALLY talking about is first principles and their validity in any philosphical quest.we started with descartes whose first principle you blamed as the fall of western science and then when called to the mat proposed arisotle to which we counterposed the final killer punche of godel. ie there are no absolute first principles in any formal language ( any serious student of philosophy not conversant with mathematical principles is an oxymoron waiting to lose the oxy) so mon cher kantian monad you would do better to admit you true non undertsanding of this debate and confess that in terms of firts principles you are still stuck at mona. to which i firmly recomed you should go. so to repeat a fundamental point in modern philosophical thought. THERE ARE No A_PRIORI ABSOLUTE FIRST PRINCIPLES in any field of human thought period. as to the paradox of the liar, i assume you mean the paradox of the included self that is as paradox raised by bertrand russel not godel and btw it was godel that once delived the killer punch to the russle/whithead principia mathematica. do you need the bibliography on that? ozy miani@consilia.com 12/15/00 5:15 PM RE: first principles I understood perfetcly what you where trying to say. Thanks for exposing a so abominable idea in so plain terms. It took you some solicitation, to force you into admitting what your (wrong) a priori premises are. But you finally did it.As I told before... what a waste of energy. ozy miani@consilia.com 12/15/00 5:29 PM let me resume let me resume your two main assertions:1) there are no absolutes (welcome, mr Kant);2) language is not consistent; then humans are allowed to do with words such mystic tricks as they won't allow themselves to do with numbers and symbols. And, when they cheat with words, they escape the same consequences they can't escape when dealing with numbers. Welcome, mr Jeff Bezos.ozy miani@consilia.com 12/15/00 5:18 PM oh... a propos de kant oh, and I forgot. As far as Kant is concerned, well... it's exactly Kant who (together with Descarted) smuggled in modern thought the fog you are still deep into.i'm in a fog, i'm told no_frogallectuals_please@hotmail.com 12/21/00 2:58 AM RE: oh... a propos de kant that is a contradictory statement.it also is not clear. it also makes no sense.and appears to be out of context.to prove we are on the same page( for i afear i'm on everest and you in the marianna's trench, and digging). define a first principle for me, explain the difference between a first principle and an assumption, provide one valid pratical working example of a first principle and we'll see where the fog lies, or is that the frog lies?ozy miani@consilia.com 12/21/00 9:11 AM "prove me that I am here" So I would have to PROVE you that you are writing here, and not elsewhere, and I would need to request a special permission (a previous authorization or legitimation) to take your words at literal meaning. Good. Good. Well, I think the Everest is the right place. If you want to explore alternative realities and parallel universes, and if you want to disconnect each element of a syntax and treat world as if it restarted any minute from scratch, a nice monastery on top of Everest is the right place.Tenzing Norgay 12/28/00 7:12 AM Qomolangma - Sagarmatha Try calling it Qomolangma or Sagarmatha. Or peut-etre you are hitting thin air.Nanga Parbat a more challenging climb.i'm in a fog, i'm told non frogallectuals_please@hotmail.com 12/21/00 2:57 AM RE: oh... a propos de kant that is a contradictory statement.it also is not clear. it also makes no sense.and appears to be out of context.to prove we are on the same page( for i afear i'm on everest and you in the marianna's trench, and digging). define a first principle for me, explain the difference between a first principle and an assumption, provide one valid pratical working example of a first principle and we'll see where the fog lies, or is that the frog lies?Hideoshi, Nobunaga, Tokugawa 12/28/00 7:04 AM Ozy's getting BUTTFUCKED bigtime in the ongoing discussion I find it terribly cute that Miani the "meticulous observer"(the step-sister of "court jester," and the 2nd cousin once removed of "blank-eyed dunce," ...but enough of geneology) notices the variations in email addresses and names. But I think cognitive faculties in this specific arena of discussion should be targeted to the matter at hand (first principles vs assumptions, examples in reality; although, perhaps Ozy is exhibiting his skills at FOG-allectualism; which seeks to obscure straightforward thinking with the smokescreen of obscurantism. Or perhaps Ozy is not, in fact, feigning this sardonic attempt at hippie-affectation and has, in actuality, inhaled too much of the chronic-skunk and the current display of delusion is not a put-on.To paraphrase Rhett, "Frankly my dear, is it too much to ask you to answer the damn question?"Cause if he does it simply and succintly, that would be far-out Greg. Really cool Marsha. Totally with it.ozy miani@consilia.com 12/28/00 11:27 AM RE: Ozy's getting BUTTFUCKED bigtime in the ongoing discussion yeah, right... except that: aristoteles didn't write "Phaedrus", Plato did. Phaedrus was not aristoteles' servant, he was socrates'. etc etc etc. Keep your erotic phantasies of fucking butts for yourself, dude, and get back to basics before talking of "mats"... ozy miani@consilia.com 12/28/00 10:50 AM who are you and who are you talking to? Just a question. J.J. Hemlock 12/29/00 7:07 AM WHO ARE YOU TALKING TO AND WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?? I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all together.See how they run like pigs from a gun, see how they fly.I'm crying.Sitting on a cornflake; waiting for the van to come.Corporation tee-shirt, stupid bloody Tuesday,man, you been a naughty boy, you let your face grow long.I am the eggman, they are the eggmen.I am the walrus; goo goo g'joob.Mister city policeman sitting pretty little policemen in a row.See how they fly like Lucy in the Sky, see how they run.I'm crying, I'm crying. I'm crying, I'm crying.Yellow matter custard; dripping from a dead dog's eye.Crabalocker fishwife, pornographic priestess,boy, you been a naughty girl you let your knickers down.I am the eggman, they are the eggmen.I am the walrus; goo goo g'joob.Sitting in an English garden waiting for the sun.If the sun don't come, you get a tanFrom standing in the English rain.I am the eggman, they are the eggmen.I am the walrus; goo goo g'joob g'goo goo g'joob.Expert textpert choking smokers,Don't you thing the joker laughs at you?See how they smile like pigs in a sty,See how they snied.I'm crying.Semolina pilchard; climbing up the Eiffel Tower.Elementary penguin singing Hari Krishna,man, you should have seen them kicking Edgar Alan Poe.I am the eggman, they are the eggmen.I am the walrus; goo goo g'joob g'goo goo g'joob.Goo goo g'joob g'goo goo g'joob g'goo.I think Stefano Lavinio PHD was speaking to you Gramps.How was your Bourgogne vacance?ozy miani@consilia.com 12/29/00 9:10 AM PHD? PHD? what PHD? In some school where they teach that Aristoteles wrote Plato's books? Come on, JJ... Wake up and smell the coffee. There's no PHD there. It was just a fad, in the '80s, to read some "fascinating" scientific divulgation, with a "postmodern" heraclitean-nietzschean bias. 48% of students where "part time" physics, the other 48% where "part time" politicians. The remaining 4% had a job, got laid big time, and in both activities learnt that what matters is: who you are, and who you talk to, and that you know both. an old libartarian ozy miani@consilia.com 01/26/01 4:14 PM an old libartarian so, the "true libartarian" alan greenspan was flat wrong about taxes and rates. good. happy he finally aknowledged that reality is not a function of virtual monetary system. As for the fact that he changed his view after-the-fact... [ie: he needed a fact (a recession) to change his view]: well, this is the last remnant of objectivity in his method. Sad destiny of the enfants-prodige documents for discussion consilia library analyst@consilia.com 01/31/01 2:13 PM documents for discussion from today's "Opinion Journal". A Jewish broker in London is suing Tullett & Tokyo Liberty, the firm that employed him, for racial discrimination. The Guardian newspaper reports that Laurent Weinberger "was told to wear an Adolf Hitler uniform at work."The firm's defense? It claims Weinberger wasn't singled out because of his race; any employee who came in late on Friday was forced to wear a uniform. The Guardian quotes from the firm's testimony:"The choice of costume might refer to a particular characteristic of the employee concerned, including on occasion his racial or ethnic origins. By way of example: a Welsh employee, Phil Gould, was given a Bo Peep costume to wear because of its association with sheep and, in the brokers' jestings, their association of sheep with Wales."A Northern Irish protestant employee, Steven Duff, was given a Pope costume to wear. The applicant was the (or certainly an) instigator of the choice of this costume. In this respect also the applicant was treated no differently from [other] employees."We're not experts on the English legal system, but we're quite certain the "Bo Peep defense" wouldn't fly in an discrimination case on this side of the pond. Fight Club Anthony Perkins and Cyber-altruism ozy miani@consilia.com 01/24/01 8:37 PM Fight Club, Anthony Perkins and Cyber-altruism Hey. Message for JJ the Crazy Priest, aka Anthony Perkins in Blue Velvet (or is it "Next Cinema Minister of the Philipino Government"?):I'm starting the work on the notes in which among others I'll comment "Fight Club" (the book). When I wrote my notes about it on Mike the Kike's Shitty Wire's Chat, You promised your were going to review it. You never did (apart from "commending" it without explanation). If you have anything to say, say it now, or shut that fucking mouth forever.youngskywalker 01/26/01 7:05 AM RE: Fight Club, Anthony Perkins and Cyber-altruism I have something to say... and it's about ozzys momma and a certain vegetable begining with the letter " C ".ozy miani@consilia.com 01/26/01 10:09 AM euphemism why do you need to resort to euphemisms, Jung-Skywalker? Do you have a "yellow" problem? ozy miani@consilia.com 01/26/01 12:02 AM cowardice / fight club? hehe now that I think about it, cowardice is funny in this context. I asked for a comment about "Fight Club" to a FAN of that movie, and the answer was an insult, BUT covered by an euphemism and signed with a pseudo. Somehow got a confirmation, huh? K&J 01/27/01 10:42 AM Nigah, you gone senile! Everybody from the ole pigpen knows Young Skywalker is the International Man of LoveSexy Mystique Kris Hopkins himself, you old goat!Ozy's Momma is so slutty that Kris could have been his daddy, but the nigah in front had exact change!ozy miani@consilia.com 01/27/01 12:24 AM it spells "nigger" what's "hole pipgpen"? Your fave gay bar?J.J. Hemlock 01/28/01 11:42 AM RE: it spells Speaking of which, Ozy's fave bar is where the stools are turned over.K&J 01/27/01 10:43 AM RE: Nigah, you gone senile + Ozy's momma Ozy's Momma is soooo slutty she has "Trojan" imprinted on her gumline!YoungSkywalker 01/28/01 8:21 AM ozys momma.... an apology I think this whole "ozzys momma thing " has gone too far. Its not ozzys fault that his mum is outgoing and likes to meet lots of different men. Ozzy.. btw, your father wasnt really Mr Cohen!ozy miani@consilia.com 01/28/01 12:03 AM walking in the sky vs walking on smokey mountain you shouldn't talk too much about "outgoing and meeting a number of men", Junk-Scavenger [funny resonances in your nickname, huh?]. It smells autobiography.[note for myself: teach this illiterate dork why and how there's a difference btw the "mater certa pater nunquam" issue, and the "name" issue. Both issues seem to bother him. He better understand what happens to him].youngskywalker 01/29/01 4:29 AM you are the only "bi" thing worth talking about... mincer boy! "smells of autobiography"... you smell like a bisexual.. you raving mincer.J.J. Hemlock 01/29/01 6:55 AM his momma? Bisexual? Kris, I thought you were gonna lay off of Ozy's momma.frx tech + macro igor+ozy 01/30/01 7:24 PM frx tech + macro here comes the missing link. usd/jpy under 116. usd/eur and yen/eur slowing bounce, but beware usd/jpy. still alert, red alert at 115. igor+ozy feldman@consilia.com 01/31/01 11:13 AM frx tech + macro update: gold attempt at 266, usd/eur and yen/eur tame (still near alerts though), usd/jpy recovering 106: faible hint of belief in Bart Greenspan giving in and really trying to reflate usd? eyes still wide open K&J 01/31/01 12:10 AM disgusting love team always knew ozy would shag an igor.Igor plus Ozyunder a treeK. I. S. S.I. N. Geee. frx tech + macro igor+ozy feldman@consilia.com 02/01/01 10:54 AM frx tech + macro good. Now, next step: usd/jpy must not give up (a lame 116 not enough), yen/eur needs to clear 109.80/111.75 and eur 0.9540/0.9635. only then alert will be definitely over. gold good, will be even better abv 268. confirmations: aud recovering 0.55, nzd 0.4400, cable 1.47 (gbp/dem good at 3.05, need to break it). gbp/jpy fine. wait for nyse and ndx close to deflate [hehe] mae vests.igor feldman@consilia.com 02/01/01 2:39 PM frx tech + macro heu. gold good, but yen back to alert levels. and look to CRB: confirms yen, contradicts gld. Careful... Look carefully at today's stock market mmvmnts+close frx tech macro igor feldman@consilia.com 02/05/01 3:38 PM frx tech + macro usd/jpy 115 gone, again. usd/eur and jpy/eur still in alert zone. further usd/jpy downside would put serious down pressure on eur. use already set stops/barriers. gold aborted 266/268 (confirms risk).igor feldman@consilia.com 02/05/01 5:39 PM RE: frx tech QED. usd/eur tame because of usd/jpy sales, but eur/jpy is once again in red alert zone. usd/jpy 113 now the detonator frx tech igor feldman@consilia.com 02/08/01 3:53 PM frx tech yen/eur and usd/eur already in full alert. usd/jpy not doesn't fully confirm (see gbp/jpy > 166 too). gold (262/260) not yet in panic mode; but aud (< .55), nzd (< .44), cable (<1.45) all confirm a possible major move. need for political defence, or a nasty bounce in yen/eur and usd/eur is ready. gold+politics the key. Gail Wynand reborn veronica hushhush@consilia.com 02/05/01 3:19 PM Gail Wynand reborn Hoho. Mr "a word is worth another" strikes again.A company whose owners resemble a lot to bloomberg lp's partners, files an unwarranted petition to force Bridge Information System (a competitor of bloomberg) into involuntary bankruptcy. Bridge defuses the move with a chapter 11 plus cash infusion by partners etc. Time will tell.BUT in the between Mike the Kike calls Dow Jones (who's linked to Bridge) and declares he "wishes the best" to Bridge and "he wants to help". does he want to buy, or sell, asks the journalist? No, he doesn't want to do anything, and he won't clarify "what's the meaning of 'help'", he just "wants to help".Speak about Gail Wynand reborn...Now, once upon a time a Consilia analyst had a discussion with Mike the Bike, when he changed his company's trademark symbol from "go!" to "help!". Transcript available at request. His answer to the political meaning of the shift is - once again - worth a Wynand's campaign.It happened, it seems, before he lost the meaning of what "help" means and implies in business language. But it seems he has perfectly integrated in his communication patterns the use of "help" in the sense made famous by some of the most distinguished italian families of NYC.As in "help joe crapanazano to find his way IN the bridge's third pillar's concrete".That's funny. The man who theorized that "a word is worth another" (source: "WSJ" story about porn language on Bloomberg terminals), politically supports the man who gave a new meaning to the word "is". And he finally gives interviews which say nothing, but suggest a lot, about competitors.Cool. Very cool. Very very very cool.Guess what all this is about?Stay tuned.ozy miani@consilia.com 02/05/01 6:03 PM Gail Wynand reborn uhm...I am not sure you got all the details right, Lynn. The "help" thing fits the guy though.Who would believe that a man who wrote (through a ghost-writer, of course) "politics is a noble profession, no matter what the cynical say. What a shame that some who HEAR THE CALL to run for office ruin what's so good in America..." and "...a few in office are SHAMELESS".So it seems he shouldn't feel any sympathy for the famous semiotician who said "it depends what your meaning of 'is' is". But altruism (and will to HELP) makes strange bedfellows.beny admiral@consilia.com 02/05/01 9:04 PM Hear me calling "hear the call"? oh, my... another one who believes political legitimation lies in hearing voices. ozy miani@consilia.com 02/05/01 9:06 PM Hear me calling listen who's speaking of political legitimation... didn't you campaign for Arik? gardening Vicky wander@hhonline.net 02/05/01 1:30 AM gardening Is there anyone out there that can tell me how to keep my pets out of my flowers veronica hushhush@consilia.com 02/05/01 9:10 AM gardens and gardenias Hello Vicky. I am happy happy happy you finally visit us.(btw: Bambi on your web page is cute; why should you keep such a sweetie from toddling in your garden?).Anyway: for truly christian advice about gardening and interior decoration, I strongly recommend mr Sumulong. Mail him at joncys@blooomberg.net. He loves flowers, he will embellish anything with as little money and substance as possible. And he is so harmless a comrade for any girl. His conversation will make you spend hours without ever thinking. (Take care with the children, though. And with bambi, too). KrisHopkins 02/05/01 11:16 AM i know how to keep away the cats! To keep cats away from your gardens flowers is quite simple and need not prove too costly. Take the label off an old plastic bottle.. (coke or sprite for example) and fill with water. Lay the bottle sideways on the area that you wish to keep animal free. The offending cat will see his own reflection in the water bottle and will thus be frightened away. Hope this helps. J.J. Hemlock 02/06/01 5:02 AM RE: i know how to keep away the cats! Kris, pets from flowers? Would you keep a pussy from sitting on your dandelions? Love and Competence Part III The Avuncular Adviser 02/01/01 8:06 AM Love and Competence Part III So, save for the attack on DeBernieres' literature, Ozy at least sees the wisdom in my initial premise (read my essay: extract the Mandolin quote). That is, that Love -- competent and interesting love -- costs.To a large extent, marital collapse result from unrealistic expectations. Expectations founded on the false assumption that the ecstacies of courtship are permanent. The fact is, there is no greater ministration to the fragile ego then "will you marry me." Excuses ranging from "I'm not really sure we're meant for each other," "I need my space," and other pleadings of cabin-fever are, removed of their moral dilemma, quite predictable. Human's detest statis. Men particularly. And they continually seek re-affirmations of self-worth. (e.g. fcuking a younger woman).Thus, it's essential that one recognises Love in it's true capacity. Not in its pernicious and mutable forms; romance and infatuation. Both are buttressed by self-image and hormonal excitation, which are weak building blocks for any relationship.ozy miani@consilia.com 02/01/01 8:49 AM Love and Competence Part III it's extraordinary. first of all: are you sure that your bad luck with women is not caused by your talent for denial? They appreciate to be considered to be alive and real. And a permanent attitude of navel-gazing could make nervous, to ssay the least. Second: I didn't agree at all with your premises. THAT's what I refused. Third: that premise, shows a cost-overconscious, demand-oriented economic attitude, which is exactly the contrary of what I said. Love is perception of wealth. First wealth, THEN love. First beauty, THEN love. Not the contrary. So, the "COSTS" of love, as you put it, seem to me to be a problem only for cheap, boring, disgusting creatures. EG: a loser who settles for a ugly woman (less ugly than him, but uglier than his idiot expectations would warrant him). He may force himself to "feel" passion, with the help of some booze and spending money he borrows (for gifts, nice restaurants and travels), for some weeks or months: but after that, he is left with no wealth, no beauty, nothing to support that love. Maybe THIS is the SPECIFIC case you are describing. But that's not love: that's self-hatred made a family problem. Lack of wealth makes love impossibile not by way of COSTS, but because lack of EARNING (not to mention INCOME) signifies lack of talent, quality, spiritual wealth, strenght. Cojones, in brief (and in shorts too).Pardon me for being so talkative and for discussing such sad details of your life, but... may I ask? ... For exemple: did your right hand stop to wank you for free, when you stopped to offer her at least a weekly rip to the movies? ozy miani@consilia.com 02/01/01 9:33 AM cost, price and value I re-read your last paragraph. It sums up your fallacies. Romance is REALIST. Romance notes REAL wealth, beauty and value. Romantic love is a GOOD value investor. Romance is right, it assess true value. Not the contrary.Romance sees present and future wealth and considers the costs to be acceptable (and necessary, albeit in need of management and planning) in comparison. Romance doesn't consider failure an option. Love is not about cost, it's about value.The kind of "disillusioned love" you preach a safe bet is cheap cost-consciousness (ie: complete misunderstanding of the logical relation btw wealth and love). I find interesting that you exposed in such a clear way that such a stupid word as "relationship" (meaning: the story among two victims of psychotherapy and floricultural literature) has a crude economic foundation in pauperism.In short, YOU are a sceptic.When did you buy a nice dinner to your right hand, recently?The Avuncular Adviser 02/01/01 1:24 PM RE: cost, price and value I perused through this response with, well, with amusement. First, through some sleight-of-hand asessment bordering on the ridiculous, romances' capacity to do 'forecasting;' and it's arrogant scoffing at failure -- as if it had a choice on the matter. Romance resides in the loins not in the brain -- as per operant conditioning theory.Then too, how 'competent' and 'interesting' love through some etymological meosis resulted in "disillusioned love," provokes a wry smile -- akin to the kind one makes when dealing and patronising a precocious, albeit curious, child.Perhaps Bill Gates' current philanthropic fundings can be siphoned into finding a cure for the intellectual quadriplegic. Or at least to just the very confused and clueless amongst us.ozy miani@consilia.com 02/01/01 2:05 PM Tom Wolfe's pageboy I understand people like you don't read: they "amuse themselves". They don't talk, they "savour". They don' get laid: they "remember the unaccustomed perusances of a ill-flattered phantom of sex". I know a wry smile and a large white hat can solve much in your world. But they can't get you laid: face it. All the gardenias of this world will not earn you the love of your right hand. She'll give you at most a finger. Make the best use of it.Pardon my plain language, but you are wrong.1) romantic love doesn't "forecast". It creates it reality, and lives up to it. It starts from the excellent values of his object and creates on them an active story. This CREATES its well being, doesn't just forecast "the lack of disillusion". [What a twisted thought: a double negative: starting from an illusion, then thinking of a disillusion, then hoping for the lack of disillusion... what a waste of energy. Why not going for the main target: joy?]. To create the premises of a disillusion, then try to forecast it, would be idiocy, not romance. The kind of failures you described (a world of people dumping each other, lying and cheating and getting bored and inventing excuses and settling for a quiet death of love) is just what happens to people who FAKE romance (that is: they want the emotions of romance, without the reality of choosing an excellent object for love, and living up to it).Yes: romance has a choice. Romance IS the choice. Romantic love is the prize for those who choose. The others, wander btw failures, impotence, homosexuality, pure and simple exhaustion. They are well represented by writers who don't write.2) as for science, psychology, and your belief that science advances from "syphoning" [..er.. anal phantasy], not to mention your faith in medicaments: if all you know about it is that "romance resides in loins", well... Maybe that's why your loins are on strike. Call a good doctor. (For a good reading, start from Freud, "Introduction to Narcissism": how the love for an excellent self [the definition of Romatic] is what makes some people so capabler of seduction. etc etc. As a counter-proof, read C. Lasch's vicious condemnation of narcissism: a best seller among both Ivy Leaguers and Hippies).3) when I talked about "disillusioned love", I was not twisting your words, but extracting their essential meaning. And your comment about "romance/loins" confirms it. You start from the sociological/naturalist description of FAILURES of romance, of the DECLINE of love, and try to find THERE the essence of love.Well, pardon me if I am overanalysizing this: but this smells like a scavenger approach to life. Why should you start from leftovers?4) last but not least: your white hat needs a cleaning. You maybe stained it on your last scavenging trip.Guest2 9c@mail.com 02/02/01 1:08 AM A sad Ozy's brain in need of stilts All your thought-gymnastics are so confused attempting to attain any semblance of coherent thought must have you busier than the official fart-catcher in a mexican baked bean social. Your point about romance "creating" is incredibly faulty if not downright pitiful. One the one hand, you've reduced it to a lonely solitary affair (which explains your fascination for the right hand, as well as your 'romantic' treat for it through candelight dinners and all). In that sense you are correct. If you are 'romancing' your right hand, which you seem to be not only expert at but fascinated with, then it is a one-man show. You've forgotten there is a recipient (in this case, it's not the appendage receiving your grip whcih seems to be the prevalent activity in your life.) If you assume that you can control the recipient -- which you have --, then you have reduced it to nothing more than the manipulations of a roadside charlatan peddling his wares in a lonely part of the sub-continent -- or at least to some braindead fat tourist from the mid-west...or worse yet, New Jersey.Your other comments are so far removed from any semblance of coherence. Perhaps it's difficult to speak about the "competent" to such an incompetent mind.It's quite sad really. But good to know that at least it keeps you within the confines of this arena busier than a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest, or a reversed-stool in a bar in Polk Street. But at least it keeps you protected from the world outside the ether.It's sad nonetheless. ozy miani@consilia.com 02/02/01 9:13 AM nope no.There is not, nor there can be, any "control" on the object. The object being an individual, there's no way to "mold" it, no to create it. Nor to "force" love on anybody: the specific of romantic love, is it KNOWS it. And it settles for nothing less that getting fully deserved love from a fully deserving object.What I say is that romantic love creates the conditions of its happiness. It doesn't fake them, nor does hallucinate them, nor does it pretend to twist reality. It chooses an object whose qualities ALLOW love to succeed. And does things, and creates things, who make love for (and BY) that object possibile and successful.Which is completely different from: choosing an object under wrong premises and vage intuitions, self-deluding about its qualities, faking his own qualities to make himself interesting, then at the end complain because "life" or "loins" or "money" or "destiny" made the marriage fail.So, I said that the daily trivialisation of love by some billions of sad people incurring the disaster you describe IS the effect of faking reality. While romantic love is the most realist form of love."Creation" has nothing to do with "faking reality". They are opposite. Despite current fascination for "virtuality".It was about Rostand, about Wiederholungszwang, about Dominique, about wwhy Don Giovanni and Casanova both failed, and about my love for a wonderful wife and my passion for Heidi.Of course, any time I pick up one detail of any of your comments and bring it to consequences, after a couple of exchanges you stop thinking and start insulting. Your pattern of quitting the discussion, repeating as self-evident the fact that I a illiterate moron is constant in this pages. Just the like the pattern of coming back after, starting a different issue, and quitting the analysis again when it comes to objections about basic elements.ozy miani@consilia.com 02/02/01 1:40 PM references and bibliography best references and bibliography about "Avuncular" comments can be found in consilia's chat transcripts (link from "chatline" page on this website). check feb 2nd transcript.good luck, kris! Love and Ozy's Skepticism The Avuncular Adviser 01/30/01 1:39 PM Love and Ozy's Skepticism Perhaps there is some merit, or at least some validity, in Ozy's scoffing at matters of a more syrupy nature. In this particular instance, the matter of love.In the musical world, while some songs assure us of Love's pro bono faculties (The best things in life are free), a contrarian school of thought asserts its priceless nature (You can't buy me love).Love, as the congenital have-nots of this world understand it, is nothing more than an opiate for the wad; self-delusions and faulty affirmations designed as excuses for life failures. Love -- that is, competent and interesting love -- is not only not free, it is, in fact quite expensive.The emotional cripples of the world mistake truly competent love for something else. Their puny understanding of love translates to nothing more than friendships run amock. Pointless nestlings; sharings of cheesy daydreams and mediocre aspirations; pacts of heavy emotional dependency which passes for stability; adolescent fumblings in the backseats of automobiles; commingled perspiration in the marital boudoir. That kind of cheap love, they may even, pitifully, consider free; and in fact, for all it's tawdriness can be considered quite expensive at that price. But the simple fact is, it is not free at all.This tepid amateurism that is romantic love is disgraceful and comes at a cost. Its end result include contractual obligations made under vaulted ceilings and rambunctious frescoes, where each side pledges to erode the other with his infinite dullness. Still, perhaps these "pobrecitos" deserve this end, for they are of an intellectual capacity which does not merit more, and by extension, lack the inherent intellect to aspire for more.Perhaps De Bernieres had a point when his character Dr. Iannis reprimanded his daughter Pelagia;"Love is a temporary madness, it erupts like volcanoes and then subsides. And when it subsides you have to make a decision. You have to work out whether your roots have so entwined together that it is inconceivable that you should ever part. Because that is what love is.Love is not breathlessness, it is not excitement, it is not the promulgation of promises of eternal passion, it is not the desire to mate every second minute of the day, it is not lying awake at night imagining that he is kissing every cranny of your body. No, don't blush, I am telling you some truths. That is just being "in love", which any fool can do. Love itself is what is left over when being "in love" has burned away, and this is both an art and a fortunate accident."ozy miani@consilia.com 01/30/01 4:28 PM Love and Competence hey Auntie, you need to start reading something more factual and reality-related than DeBernieres [the guy who buried in some 200 pages of vagueness the best 5 pages I read about Mussolini since "M. the imbecile" by Malaparte. He writes a book about war and slaughters, and the title speaks of mandolins, go figure]. You definitely need to forget Tom Wolfe, De Lillo and the whole floriculturistic soapbubble gang, otherwise you'll never get laid in this life.ozy miani@consilia.com 01/30/01 4:42 PM Love and Competence, part II btw: love has nothing to do with the kind of "settling for what remains" that you described. Like culture is NOT "what remains after forgetting everything" (dumb platonism), so love is definitely NOT what remains once you lose passion. It's definitely not for losers. So, don't look my way when searching a love-scorner. Of course, if your assistant looked like Heidi and if your wife looked like mine, you would understand. As for the economic terms: passion is definitely value investing. Love is, too. Anybody who thinks it's some kind of "speculative bubble" or "irrational exuberance", will marry at 70 with an old chick just to stop rumours and innuendos, like Alan "Bart" Greenspan did.ozy miani@consilia.com 01/30/01 4:54 PM no skepticism at all which means, among others, that I am no skeptic at all K&J 01/31/01 12:08 AM RE: no skepticism at all True. You are not a skeptic. You're a septic (read: full of shit).ozy miani@consilia.com 01/31/01 10:02 AM tanks hehe. this is from the man who complained that this chatroom is "full of hatred and scorn". How happens that you lose your humour and good manners every time I clarify that any talk about "love" has to do with sex in a real world? And that your wanking once a month (payday night) cannot be considered a "sexual life" hence a ground for competence about love and sex? And that literary and artistic production about love made by eunuchs is usually shit?Which amounts to Heidi's previous question: how about you getting a life? YoungSkywalker 01/31/01 6:24 AM may i just point out that.... can i just point out to the chap who made the earlier comment "money cant buy me love"..... yes it can! You can buy large amounts of love in Londons Kings Cross area. I believe the cheapest for of love is a hand job that will set you back some 15 of her Brittanic Majestys English pounds! ozy miani@consilia.com 01/31/01 10:09 AM wrong you miss the point, Yugo: his hand charges him 15 pounds, otherwise she'd refuse to make sex to him Love, In-Love, and Magic Porfirio Rubirosa 01/28/01 11:50 AM Love, In-Love, and Magic A sense of hatred, or at least scorn, permeates in this chatroom. Allow me to jettison the discussion into things of a more viscuous nature.With the month of St. Valentine now upon us (and you may reflect on that happy pun), I'd like to hear (or read) what you have to say on matters pertaining to love; ranging from the years and diversity of experience of the worldly Miani, to the temporary mating habits of Young Kris Hopkins, to personal recollections and insights of Veronica, Heidi...and pretty much anyone out there who wishes to participate in this round table.heidi heidi@consilia.com 01/28/01 6:38 PM "viscuous"? what about You getting a life, Sir? Porfirio Rubirosa 01/29/01 1:05 AM Viscuous I used 'viscuous' in place of 'syrupy.' I was not expecting a 'viscious' answer from you. The discussion has been laid out and would prefer not to resort to tit-for-tat responses and adolescent comebacks. Thanks.heidi miani@consilia.com 01/28/01 6:55 PM the true story this is the true story of me, and how I joined Consilia.It was 1996, and a client of Consilia attended the Stuttgart Messe. One night, one of his German clients invited him to a brothel. And there, he found me. He was an italian (Euro-fanatic and in need of a Mama), and when I corrected him on the exchange rate he had tried to apply to his little gift, he asked me my opinion about Italy and Germany and Europe and the works. I told him I was a free-marketeer and a Euroskeptic. And I explained him, all night long, why Euro would be a monetary, political and economic error. The day after, he called Ozy. Next week Veronica called me, and here I am.Now, your turn, Sir. How did it happen your wife dumped you and you had to find a job entertaining clients' wives?krishopkins 01/29/01 4:31 AM RE: the true story That is a mighty fine story.. wish you could have told us more about your work in the brothel though.J.J. Hemlock 01/29/01 6:51 AM poontang from perth Perhaps you may expound upon the temporary nature of your mating habits alongside side Heidi's history of vending the comfort of her thighs.krisHopkins 01/29/01 8:17 AM i am a gentleman I am a gentleman and woundnt dream of posting tales of my legendary sexual powers on this website... You'll just have to wait for the book! Guest2 9c@mail.com 01/29/01 9:06 AM Young Hoppy, your opinion on love etc didnt need a kiss-and-tell. just your opinion on love, In-Love, and Magic. As well as meeting in 6 months on Track 9, ragged poets writing about milkshakes alongst the Danube, quiet summer dinners on a docked ferry along the Danube with a quartet playing Strauss' Vienna Blut, palm-readying in an Austrian Platz from a gypsy talking of "stardust," chance meetings on a EuroTrain, walks along the park with the Hofpsburg Palace in the background, personal conversations on a Viennese tram, reflections in a cemetery whilst looking at the grave of a young child named Elisabeth, stolen glances inside the lsitening booth at the Alf and Neu Vinyl Record Shop with the strains of folk-singing by Kath Bloom crooning "Come Here," 'borrowing' a wine-bottle from an understanding viennese bartender solely on a promise of future pay, and stuff of that nature.heidi heidi@consilia.com 01/29/01 11:21 AM a girl from Mitteleuropa Your are strange and amusing, Sir. Your love dreams belong to places your never lived in. Is that a subtle way to suggest your love and sex life is something imaginary? or that all you know about love and sex, you learned in dark cinemas (last row, paedophile corner)? krishopkins 01/29/01 12:57 AM RE: a girl from Mitteleuropa He also had a very sexually active mother who used to fill him in with anything he wanted to know!marriage embellishment economy consilia library heidi@consilia.com 02/02/01 3:14 PM marriage, embellishment, economy "as for embellishment: people with a fictional character cannot have mutual relations. The same happens if the fiction concerns the body. Relations founded on embellishment are like those between actors on the scene" (Xenophon, "Oikonomicon", X 1-7, quoted by Aristoteles, "Oikonomia", I, 4, 3 ozy miani@consilia.com 02/02/01 3:23 PM marriage/economy yep. love is the economist by definition. dealing with the object and with reality. Cannot change it, can just obey it in order to create new things from existing ones.And who is the financier by definition? Hate. Dealing with time, with conclusion, limit (finis).The error? To mistake time and object. And to think that time affects love. Nope. there's no decay in reality. No corruption.Casanova and Don Juan both make this mistake (in two different ways).ozy miani@consilia.com 02/02/01 3:51 PM marriage/economy another link is the following: mistaking time and object is the basis for transexualism, travesti etc (thx to Heidi for the quote abt "embellishment", love and economy). my children ozy miani@consilia.com 01/29/01 11:04 AM my children go figure: I ridiculed that poor Andy for his pro bono work in a orphan-nutter-mongoloid-nameless kindergarten. Look what I am reduced to: a playschool for asian dumbos. Don't tell my momma: she believes I run a whorehouse.I have to admit it's anyway better than the politically correct fag bar run by Mike Bloomberg. J.J. Hemlock 01/30/01 2:12 AM RE: my children You sure spent a lot of time (to the tune of 18 hours a day) in Mikey's fag bar Ozzy.And it's Andre "The Good Jew" who does pro-bono care. Andy is the Indo-Samoan fat git with an equally fat salary in Tokyo.Ozzy's Momma's so dirty they use a shovel for her pap smear!krishopkins 01/29/01 12:58 AM RE: my children Ozzy.. you crack me up..... never change! J.J. Hemlock 01/30/01 2:09 AM RE: RE: my children Ozzy would crack you up the ass no prob seeing as he is a mincer! And he'll never change!ozy miani@consilia.com 01/29/01 7:41 PM momma why. thank you. anything to make you kids happy. spoiling you, mollifying your personality, making your psychotic and enhancing your suicidal tendencies is my last hope to get rid of your graffiti... hehe Name-calling and other lamentations The Happy Looker 02/06/01 8:13 AM Name-calling and other lamentations The use of pejoratives does little to elevate the credibility of this forum. Personal attacks executed behind the safety of a keyboard are bullying. But above all, it's interesting how one who parades his logic-reasoning credentials (validating it through a showy parade of footnotes) makes one wonder if there is any interest in making points of logic, rather than laying down the groundwork for more personal invectives. Even more interesting are the complaints of namecalling. It's another occasion of the pot slandering the kettle.Two words of advise: Anger Management eddie johngalt@starsofti.com 02/06/01 7:15 PM RE: Name-calling and other lamentations Should I call you "Lappy Hooker", would it be name-calling or a lamentation?chris crisfmr@libero.it 02/06/01 7:22 PM Name-calling and other lamentations IF PORFIRIO LOOKER AND JJ-HEMLOK REALLY ARE THE SAME PERSON, HE IS THE LONELIEST SOCIALITE AROUND. YOU ARE BADLY IN NEED OF A WOMAN J.J. Hemlock 02/06/01 8:16 AM took the course -- I took the course. And kicked the shit outta him.ozy miani@consilia.com 02/06/01 9:35 AM didn't take the right one though both above postings are by the same person, one mr Juan Carlos Sumulong, whose e-mail address is joncys@bloomberg.net. The same happens for "Porfirio", "avuncular advisor", etc.I had to help him with this statement because he seems to find it difficult to use a name, to sign, to state his location, to assert any identity.So, he maybe took some course in "anger management", but didn't take one in "reality assessment".Facts. Facts facts facts.I would have some interpretation too, but not now. Just facts for now.see ya in 3 months Bibi benny admiral@consilia.com 02/06/01 11:25 PM see ya in 3 months, Bibi get ready for next campaign in 3 months time. and this time gotta be Bibi. Fatso is no use. ozy miani@consilia.com 02/06/01 11:31 PM fatso yeah, right. In 3 mths it's back to Bibi. Or it's back to Beirut, hehe. To Dance Like A Dervish Porfirio "Simpatico" Rubirosa 01/30/01 9:09 AM To Dance Like A Dervish You see, pobrecitos, I wanted to talk about "amor." And all i get are acerbic remarks filled with pain...even cynicism.This is what I want to impart to you.Not an ounce of excitement, not a whisper of athrillWell, it worries me. I want youto get swept away. I want you tolevitate. I want you to sing withrapture and dance like a dervish.I know it's a cornball thing butlove is passion, obsession, someoneyou can't live without. If youdon't start with that, what are yougoing to end up with? I say fallhead over heels. Find someone youcan love like crazy and who'll loveyou the same way back. And how doyou find him or her? Forget your head andlisten to your heart. I'm nothearing any heart.Run the risk, if you get hurt, you'll come back. Because, the truth is there is no sense living your life without this. To make the journey and not fall deeply in love -- well, you haven't lived a life at all. You have to try. Because if you haven't tried, you haven't lived. ozy miani@consilia.com 01/30/01 9:40 AM To Dance Like A Dervish phew... I'm impressed. He is in love. Better: he's got the Magic. What did you do to him on Boracay, Kris? Porfirio Rubirosa 01/30/01 12:57 AM Advise for OzyJude Oh Ozy...don't you know that it's a fool who plays it cool by making his world a little colder...krishopkins 01/30/01 11:05 AM i did nothing! He sat next to a European girl in a mini bus for a couple of hours.... he seems to think that he has experienced love on the back of this unexpected phenomenon....(and if phenomenon is incorrectly spelled.. i dont give a shit!) Vicky wander@hhonline.net 02/05/01 1:36 AM RE: i did nothing! if you're going to be romantic,try to spell the words rightozy miani@consilia.com 01/30/01 12:30 AM a pen pal for mr ping pong and did she promise to write him? or did she give him a fake address? will he go back to Euroland next summers, trying to find her? will he call her aug 8th, trying to get a date for august 14th? will he try to introduce her to Greg? I mean: is this really LOVE?Two hours... phew... either she was from Bulgaria/Rumania, or she had some serious olfactory disfunction... that could help their life, when she'll run their sky resort chalet on smokey mountain Atsap 01/30/01 9:26 AM modern love I'll ruin everything you are. I'll bring you television, i`ll give you eyes of blue, i'll give you a man who wants to rule the world, because at the end of the day I wish I could swim like the Dolphins.. you know? Like Dolphins can swim. At this point in my life I still catch the paper-boy, but things dont really change. Im standing in the rain but i never wave bye bye. I think the reason for this is because here i am floating in my tin can, far above the world..and from what i can see planet earth is blue and theres nothing i can do. What id really like to do is dance... just put on my red shoes and dance the blues to the song thats playing on the radio. My last girlfriend hated insects.. but where were the spiders?? J.J. Hemlock 01/30/01 12:48 AM David Bowie Medley on Acid...and Labyrinth I'll paint you mornings of gold,I'll spin you valentine eveningsthough we're strangers till now.We're choosing the path between the stars,I'll leave my love between the stars.War of words krishopkins 02/05/01 11:23 AM War of words Ozzy me old china! I have no wish to trawl through old messages thank you very much! I do not contribute to many arguments that are formed in the message board of this website. My purpose is purely to insult your mother from time to time. If no reaction has been provoked then I just slink back to the sidelines. I do not have the interlectual capacity to debate matters with yourself and Joncy. I am a mere international playboy, with the world as his arena! Please do not use my name in arguments that quite clearly have nothing to do with me. Juan Carlos Sumulong is his own man and your fight is with him. May I just take this time to say how wonderful your mother was last night... it was the best $10 ive ever spent. I think i might have lost my watch though.. could you ask her to take a look? ozy miani@consilia.com 02/05/01 2:08 PM War of words Hey Kris, welcome. No problem. What happens btw you and my momma is your business, not mine (this doesn't explain why the Web should share the knowledge, but we'll discuss this later). Just please don't use the words "intellectual capacity" and "Sumulong" in the same sentence, because they simply don't match.In this connection, I have one word for you (it is none of my business, but I happened to read what you posted on our chat, so please pardon me): I thought I was going to crack, when I read that Joncy asked you if lacking a university degree was damaging your job search. Sincerely, don't let the guy play mind games with you. JJ is just kidding. What he posts here means nothing. He knows literally shit about anything substantial. You don't need to be a QED expert nor a linguistic scholar to notice it: it's enough to see the simple fact he enters debates after-the-fact, and exits them when he cannot get away just by smearing (self-proclaiming he scored a point, when he doesn't ever know what the game is). This is fine for a "graffiti-debate". But I would never accept it as a guidance for basic decisions.So, evaluate your skills by yourself, and fuck the university. It was not university which earned JJ his job. It was just the old lame trick of employing in sales offices people with well know surnames. It's something like the "JD Marlin" thing, or italian dumb bond salesmen whose name remember noble families from Tuscany.So, try to keep fun and beach and frindship well separated from job decisions which could cost you dear.I repeat: it was none of my business. But you chose to use my humble chat to jot down your thoughts, and I couldn't avoid to read them.Best regards. Don't be cheap with momma: she earns every penny, and you know it (btw: for finding a job, she could be more helpful than jj).JJ Hemlcok 02/06/01 4:59 AM Debate? Debate? The reason I do not pursue the subject furthur is because what you qwrite is absolute drivel. It's kindness that compels me to discontinue dear Ozy me ole mucker. That and it does get boring watching you embarass yourself all too much. But i still see some potential in you as a pupil. Read and learn.Other than that, compared to what you write, Kris' attacks on your momma has more intellectual substance.It's sad how you whine about people gutting you with personal comments. And ironic as well.but sad nonetheless.Ozy's momma is so loose, her uterus fell out when she farted!ozy miani@consilia.com 02/06/01 9:55 AM substance good. that was substantiated. precise, relevant, all the works.A mind educated to good manners and flower management only, should never tackle mind efforts. As one great man said: "le debile, face a l'effort d'analyse, devient toujours une canaille".Admiral Yo Benny, come back, Greg the Putz wants you. guest44 11/16/00 1:39 PM Admiral! Yo Benny, come back, Greg the Putz wants you. What ever happened to ol' Benny the kosher-hotdog vendour from the TriBeca subway stop? We've missed his responses without reasons, and his facility for answering queries with questions. Throw in some extra mustard. the admiral admiral@consilia.com 11/18/00 1:00 PM Philippines, Diana, mother Teresa and mob rule Who is Benny? Your dog? Your knowledge of jews (including aged ones) seems based on some saturday-morning TV movie. Read something serious. Anyway: Philippines seem unwilling to escape the feminization of power struggle and the poisonous compound of matriarchal catholicism and welfare populism. Enjoy the brief euphory. This will make Philippines an even better place to live for european tourists (cheap flesh). This was the meaning of my recommendation to mr Bannier.guest44 11/19/00 4:57 AM RE: Philippines, Diana, mother Teresa and mob rule Saturday tv-movies? You must get Balkan TV. That concept is inexistent in most western networks' time programming.As to the "knowledge of jews" matter, the kosher-dog imagery is merely an extension of the Bloomberg pigpen community's running joke on Gramppa "Topol" Ozy. It's as flawed an assessment as Greg's translation of Mahathir's Erections as evidence of legitimate socio-economic progress; as is his lust for all the malls in Metropolitan Manila.Lastly, your analysis of the Philippine situation as well as the previous one on Malaysia are stuff Greg has heard for the past year from Andy "Babelicious" Bachtiar and myself. Give him something juicier please. The dog needs a new bone to chew on, as even they get bored with the same meat. (All puns intended)admiral admiral@consilia.com 11/19/00 11:46 AM macapagal My evaluation of Philippinos' tendence to kneeling in front of nuns (no pun intended) may be "old stuff" (Bachtiar? Is he of the distinguished Iranian family?). But you people seem incapable of finding a way out of this particular form of self-slavery. Worse: slavery to a feminized power implies that you have no "master" to confront and to challenge for freedom. This is why you go on looking for somebody to blame, but love, but blame, but love, but blame. That's ONE meaning of Philipinos' juvenile love-hate for USA. That way you don't even get the freedom coming from WITHIN. It's the slave-side version of the feminization of politics (Fukuyama: idiot) affirmed in US (master-side) by the draft-dodger generation.Next installment: family names (father function) in Philipino women political careers. Its relation with lack of family name in nuns' career [except for well-known mater superiors].guest44 11/19/00 2:32 PM RE: macapagal Bachtiar is Indonesian/Samoan.Sure. The love-hate relationship with America is in fact something that even Filipinos themselves are quite aware of. Though acknowledgement of the 'problem' has not necessarily led to a solution. As for your points about the pernicious compound between matriarchal Catholicism and welfare populism...both are basically nothing more than political currency with which opposing sides attempt to further their cost. On the one hand, you have the 'oligarchy' represented by the "Resign Erap" side vs. the pro-Estrada. The former continues to use the old-hat strategy Cory effectively used in ultimately replacing Marcos (The "God is on our side" cry, validated by the Catholic Church) vs a chant Estrada effectively used to win the Presidency (I represent the 'poor,' validated by the Iglesia ni Kristo and a Catholic-charismatic group -- The El Shaddai -- 8 million strong.[yes, catholic. seems incongruent with having the Catholic heirarchy on the other side, but the Philippines wouldn't be itself if it were not confusing..or better yet, contradictory).In essence, what you have here are two previously effective 'rallying cries'(Catholic Heirarchy's 'on the side of god' vs welfare 'I am for the poor' populism) meant to gain popular support for the furtherence of each sides' cause. And it isn't about the good vs. the bad. What it all amounts to is this: personal interest and ambition. Nothing else. The illegal gambling expose only provided the other side with an 'opportunity' to have their chance at the reins of power basically.One could perhaps argue that in terms of laying out the two sides battling for power, Estrada represents the growing influential Chinese-community as well as the old-hands of the Marcos regime, while Cory/Macapagal represent the peninsulares, the old rich, the old spanish and filipino oligarchy. Even in this instance the lines are blurry. One of Estrada's closest supporters is in fact an estranged cousin of Cory and has as much claim to being filipino-blueblood as Cory does. Which narrows the current brouhaha really to nothing more than a fight personal interest and ambition. As for the nuns, again this goes back to Cory using the church (and vise-versa) effectively. Filipinos are a sentimental people. And Cory hiding in a convent was the stuff of high drama. Filipinos love to eat that stuff up. What's fun now is which of the theatrics spun by each side still captivates the Wad's imagination. AS in America, democracy here means the dictatorship of the Wad, the mass.admiral admiral@consilia.com 11/19/00 4:00 PM macapagal Now now now you start to make SOME sense. I am happy you tried to say something factual, instead of playing the "discussion class starlet". When a student in my class tried to outsmart his collegues without exposing his ass, I used to have him moved to the bomb-defusal squad in commercial malls for a week. Either he became concise, or he began to stutter. In both evenience the character problem was solved. I think the Philipino government could use some cannon fodder for the same task. I might have a word with your boss. Once this settled, I still have to notice the following re your comments on mob rule: generic theism (including your apparent sneering at "contradictions" of dumb catholic wad, and your generic criticism of "ambition" and "corruption") is DEEPLY rooted in ideological matriarchy.Guest875 11/20/00 1:07 AM RE: macapagal First off, do you and Ozy always use that same line of argument (I'll have a word with your boss blah blah blah..)? It does get a bit tedious after a while son; or worse yet, boring. As are the typical accusations/name-calling meant to reduce your interlocutors to nothing more than students displaying varying levels of erudition meant to impress the 'listening' crowd; in short, we're just smart-asses playing to the classroom.Lastly, Ozy used to make references about being in the military, as are you. I don't know if it is meant to 1.) Impress, 2.) Come off as a veiled threat, 3.) Legitimise whatever comments you concoct. Either, all, or a combination of the three are boring anyhow. You're not speaking to a spoonfed Westerner here. So please, don't play up that stuff. I've seen and gone through more hardship then you can dream off. So lay off the pedantry. Maybe it will work in the emotional vacuity of a singles pick-up bar in Europe. But not here. Then too, Ozy was at least slightly entertaining in his delivery.OK Benjamin, to the topics at hand. SOME of your asessment was erroneous. My narrowing down the source of conflict to "personal interest and ambition" is not automatically an indictment of "personal interest and ambition;" the point made was that beyond the gaggle in Babel, what it all amounted to was interest and ambition. Also, "sneering" at the Church isn't what it is about. But one must admit there is delightful irony in having the Princes of the Catholic church on one side, and a Catholic-charismatic group on the other. Perhaps 'smile' is the better word. Or 'smirk.'anyway, I don't know if you want to reduce this to nothing more than intellectual jousting Benjamin. Like I said, that's fine with me as Ozy gave his Bloomberg pals a carte-blanche in how they want to approach discussions here (so your admonitions of smart-alecky students and threatening them with a 'spanking,' or specifically, or class-detention in some explosive-diffusion team, is unnecessary). Anyway, you set the parametres. You're the "boss" after all, so we "back-room goons" and "mid-level employees"(heheh..Ozy was creative) await for the parametres you set.ozy miani@consilia.com 11/20/00 9:03 AM rules of engagement hehe. cool down, guest. (Or not: this could make a good fight). You challenged an old soldier (and savant) calling him a "hot dog vendor", and now you want me to restrain him? Cannot. He still can have a word with somebody and I'd find me escorting nuns in pilgrimages in betlehem. my promise was of freedom of speech, not of lack of reaction...Guest875 11/20/00 9:30 AM RE: rules of engagement Absolute no problem with that Gramps. It's just that his "reactions" are those you ahve used on Bloomberg chat. I'm not demanding him to adhere to rules; just to be original. But as you say, part of the freedom is the freedom to be unoriginal.ozy miani@consilia.com 11/20/00 10:15 AM rules of engagement false. think about it, and you will see it's false. if you are not interested in focusing on the analysis whose lines admiral suggested (the fukuyama-feminization thing), well... your choice. but avoid smoke-curtains: you are just confirming the "discussion class starlet" syndrome benny pointed at. guest44 11/20/00 2:23 PM RE: rules of engagement which wasw the point i made. look, grmaps, this is becoming tit-for-tat. benjamin, proceed please. Insomnia KrisHopkins 12/07/00 12:28 AM Insomnia I have nothing of value to say. Dont care if shintoist got to Japan through Gobi, or whether they got to Japan by using the Hammersmith & city line and the number 74 bus from Knightsbridge.... I just cant sleep anymore. When I used to have bloomberg I'd only have to read what nonsense Ozzy had to say on page chtm 23 of bloomberg chat..and i'd be out like a light. Im awake for hours on end now. Will this nightmare ever end?? Guest875 tweetylex@netzero.com 12/11/00 2:12 AM RE: Insomnia The finest cure for insomnia -- at least amongst the fairer sex -- is a night with Gregory Bannier. I've heard mention from women about being lulled to sleep suspended mid-crotched on a pendulum whose consistency and structure is akin to an overcooked chorizo. From what I hear, the residual side effects are more debilitating than that of early chemotherapy tests, however. And I think all people cannot dream of wishing this manner of treatment to even the worst human beings in our sphere; excepting perhaps Ozzy Miani -- though he may not fall under the ilk of "human beings" in the first place.Manila pollution, of course, has been a tried and tested anodyne for sleeplessness. If I recall your weeklong 14-hour long siestas whilst here, this lends validity to the theory. YoungSkywalker 12/14/00 10:16 PM RE: RE: Insomnia Im sure I never slept for 14 hours! You lie! Will will soon find out in a few weeks for the re-match.. Thriller in Manila 2!! JJ's comments on Elvis' Suspicious Minds guest44 11/13/00 3:44 PM JJ's comments on Elvis' Suspicious Minds Why is it that singing Suspicious Minds remains Elvis Presley's finest crooning ever?Is it the introductory arpeggio that, like an alluring temptress, lures the listener into the music? Is it The King's heartfelt lament of emotional incarceration (We're caught in a trap. I can't walk out.)Perhaps the Pelvis' appeal and clarion call for reason (We can't go on together with Suspicious Minds. We can't build our dreams on Suspicious Minds.) to prevail speaks to us all. Then too, there is that teasing meant as endearment (So if an old friend I know, stops and says ihello.' Would i still see suspicion in your eyes) that tugs at our empathy as it hints less of malice and more of affectionate humour.Perhaps it is the fabulous texture that is the Motown-inspired bassline within the chorus in marital bliss with The White-caped Wash-out's deep vocal evocations. And then there is so much more..... kasparov and US elections ozy miani@consilia.com 11/17/00 7:34 PM kasparov and US elections I recommend reading Garry Kasparov's column (Wall Street Journal, nov 13th) about foreign policy implications of US elections stalemate. This time he is simply wrong. Foreign policy is among the worst legacies of Clinton administration, and it is by lack of clear principles, and/or by predominance of blurred (ie wrong) principles. Some consequences of Gore's management of russian relations have been tragic. And this happened because of the same ideological references who recently brought Gore to his unfortunate management of election results. Kasparov's proposal seems to miss the logical link between refusal to see the principles at stake in the elections, and refusal to see the principles at stake in foreign policy. Kasparov's final reference to Israel's "national unity government" makes a powerful exemple: as we discussed a month ago, Clinton administration's indulgence towards the birth of a palestinian state dodgind the rule of law (as dramatically showed by Ramallah's "accident") tells a tale about Clintonites' idea of the state, as much as about Arafat's. Lack of principles, mockery of the rule of law, government by unanimity and consensus ("or else...") are exactly what US partners don't need. Letter from tom Hiro hik@bloomberg.net 12/14/00 8:29 AM Letter from tom Dear Santa ClausThank you very much for quite awesome Christmas present. But I'm not satisfied with it. Last boxing day I hard from dad that if I will be a good boy and will get a good grade in my class, certainly my wish will come true. Jesus order that you must deliver nice present for me. So I studied very hard, of course I'm at the top of my class. But this year you gave me a soft toy dog as usual. Why? Lucy, who is a my class mate and a neighbour, was a bad girl and got a bad grade in my crass. But she got very expensive party dress. Why? Why? Why? It is an unfairness. Do you fall in love with her? So please explain me that why did you deliver expensive goods for Lucy, why did you give me cheep present! You know Lucy's dad is a very rich, so her father is able to buy more expensive gift for her. But my dad has lost his job in this summer, he still looks for his job, so he can not buy expensive present for me. I think you must give me nice present, not Lucy! OK!I hope next Xmas you will not make a same mistake! Love. Tom 26. December 2000 This joke was written by Hiro Please forgive my beautiful Jap-English joe melli@consilia.com 12/14/00 12:08 AM tom You mean these are the people on whose behalf we fought the Cold war? European Summit shouldn't take place in Nice, they should've gathered in Lourdes. Little China Girl KrisHopkins krishopkins77@hotmail.com 11/12/00 1:43 PM Little China Girl I stumble into town just like a sacred cowvisions of swastikas in my headplans for everyone,it's in the whites of my eyes.My little china girlyou shouldnt mess with meI'll ruin everything you areI'll give you televisionI'll give you eyes of blueI'll give you man who wants to rue the world. Love and Good looks and Greg's Dreams Guest875 11/16/00 8:49 AM Love and Good looks and Greg's Dreams I've always been fascinated by the enormous value society places on looks; men more so then women. I, for one, always appreciate the extra investment a woman makes in cosmetic enhancements with which she buttresses her inherent attractiveness. I have met numerous women who at first impression appear to be stunning lookers, yet who ultimately reveal themselves to be a more modest reflection of their initial appearance the following morning. By no means does this diminish my appreciation of them one whit - particularly if they turn out to be wonderful human beings -- but I find noteworthy the recognisable gulf between the aesthetic expectations of the Night-befores versus the humble realisations of the Morning-afters. Along this train of thought, Prepmaster Gregory Bannier has mentioned to me that he would prefer to be born a homosexual in the next-life. His wish is in no manner fueled by a proclivity for same-gender copulation (Greg is not attracted to men) but more so by frustration (women are not attracted to Greg); Greg believes that homosexuals are less-inclined to use good looks as criterion for choosing potential sexual partners as much as heterosexuals.I'm wondering how you folks feel about these points and how it has affected you in your lives.Vicky wander@hhonline.net 02/05/01 1:42 AM RE: Love and Good looks and Greg's Dreams Let's put this in a proper perspective. A man wants to be born a homosexual in his next life because women are not attracted to him? WOW! A pitiful existence if he's waiting on his next life. why not now? If this is all that's holding him back, a little change in the climate may do him good. Besides, how does he know he's going to have another life? Be real!prepmaster 11/16/00 5:51 PM RE: Love and Good looks and Greg's Dreams unfortunately i'm not blessed with the looks of a greek god and women in general do not have the urge to spend a night with me other than discussing. but still the biggest bullshit spread around is the rumour that inner values count and no matter how damn ugly a guy is,woman decide on inner values which means at first glance: kindness, intelligence etc. but in reality woman look at your job, your income, your car, your house!!!!!! i think even i could score if would pick up a lady with a porsche. im an old man but still feel this way, that's why i own now the domain innervalues.com - everyone can check that. prepmaster 11/16/00 11:09 AM RE: Love and Good looks and Greg's Dreams indeed i have stated to have such thoughts. it is not a fantasy but it would make things indeed simple. having encounters with female involves enormous cost, time etc. while (you as a gay can confirm) gays can visit the next public loo in order to gain satisfaction. no talking no nothing just straightforward coming to the point.guest44 11/16/00 1:26 PM RE: RE: Love and Good looks and Greg's Dreams Look again. I spoke about my personal intimate encounters with women. You, on the other hand, seem to have intimate knowledge about same-gender activities in public toilets. I guess we know where you get your FastLove. You seem to prefer Father Figure giving you careless whispers.=Love at first sight in Richard's case= Hiro hik@bloomberg.net 01/02/01 8:30 AM =Love at first sight in Richard's case= > This is a story of second great voyage time.> In 2492 one explorer discovered the new planet, which live being. It's 1000> years later from Columbus' discover of new continental. The hero's name is> Richard form Scotland.> In this time Mr. Joncy Sumlong devise new type spaceship Patrick (its> nickname is FAT-PAT), which can fly faster than light-beam. The principle of> relativity we are able to travel everywhere, where we want to go, in a> moment. First plan of The maiden voyage by Patrick was going to the end of> the universe. But during the trip Richard found beautiful planet, just like> Earth.> According to his investigation environment of this planet is a very similar> to our planet. When he watched this planet by telescope from the spaceship,> he was very surprised. Because people are same to us, and they put on> Scottish costume, that is men and women wear kilt skirt. Eagerly he wanted> to drop in this planet. So he asked permit to go there. Of course soon he> got it.> He landed deserted place. By reason of no-one notice that he is an alien. He> had on the Scottish costume, and left spaceship. He must go to town by foot.> On the way he was picked up by one cute girl. How surprised! She spoke to> him by Scottish. Sure here is not earth. According to her this planet has> one culture one language, in other words every this planet people speak> Scottish and wear kilt skirt.> Just now she went to home after work, she is a nurse and lives alone. She> invited him to her home. Actually Richard and she fallen in love each other> at the first sight. For the time being he hadn't aim, where he have to go.> So he decided to go.> > In her room they sat on the bed . They deep gazed each other. Gradually> started very romantic night. When he KISSED on her LIPS, she gave a bashful> look. Suddenly he give her a hug and thought, "Stop the world! I want to a> worm embrace her for ever!" She said, "I have no experience!" Yes, she was a> virgin. Then they made burning love.> After that she served coffee. Just before drinking it, they SNOGED. When he> saw how she drink it, he realised why this planet peoples (NOT ONLY WOMEN,> ALSO MEN) put on the MINI SKIRT. She lifted her skirt up, and drank it from> the bottom. YES, her BOTTOM is MOUTH, her MOUTH is BOTTOM.> > Gwahahahaha, sorry Richard, Patrick & JJ.> And everyone please forgive my lovely Jap-English.> This SF was written by Hiro.Lovematch post: Looking for a womanJ.J. Hemlock 11/08/00 11:48 AM Lovematch post: Looking for a woman Looking to meet a hyperliterate, stunning, unaffected, sophisticated, utterly amoral woman possessing an air of distant sangfroid and sere and bereft of the notion of guilt.Too scared to entertain. veronica lake hushhush@consilia.com 11/08/00 11:56 AM I know what you like Go IMMEDIATELY in your room, boy! And I mean NOW! guest44 11/08/00 1:00 PM RE: I know what you like What does that have to do with my search?guest44 11/08/00 1:37 PM RE: RE: I know what you like What does that have to do with my search? Ozy promised no bloomberg police. didnt know he policed this joint with a jewish mother in place.Malaysia truly Asia? Prepmaster gregorybannier@hotmail.com 11/13/00 6:00 PM Malaysia truly Asia? I try herewith to be a bit more specific about the point i would like to discuss:1) I see a big contrast in countries such as malaysia. Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchanges Market Cap is rougly 85 Billion US$ - Philippines Stock Exchange abt $ 16 Billion.If the Stockexchange should be the business card for a healthy and prosperous economy this fact is very obscure. So in other words - companies from the so called 1st world do mergers and aquisition in sizes where $ 16 million would pay for the expenses of the directors. 2)The Skylines of Cities such as Kuala Lumpur is stunning. I personally do understand that countries in asia are ways behind european and american standards. it took europe and the states many generations to achieve such prosperity. But it is funny how the legendary asian family value are kicked in the rear when it comes to the rich/poor divide. Is there really a lack of the middle class? hound of baskerville dog&fools@hotmail.com 11/14/00 3:25 PM RE: Malaysia truly Asia? the issue of monuments and economic development should be looked at interms of two factors: size and sponsor. government sponsored large monuments are a sign of inner maiaise of a govnt. look at history: the tower of babel, the gardens of babelon, the coloseium,la defense, the new reichstag and the millenium dome. large privately sponsored monuments, the famous at&t "chippendale" sky scraper ect are a sign likewise of malaise of corp management. the common factor is infact hubris. aka the bigger they think they are the bigger they build and the harder they fall when their number comes up.sexy roxy 11/14/00 1:07 PM malaysia stop talking, Prepmaster, and just fuck me! Now!admiral admiral@consilia.com 11/14/00 11:06 AM class? You will pardon me if I don't fully understand web-forum etiquette. I find difficult (and boring) to reply to messages not proposing a thesis. They seem more like "clever" questions. And this is presumed to be a forum (= step in, say something, wait for comments), not a "question time" arena (= challenge teachers with clever questions).Anyway."Skyline"? You mean the monuments? Or the business buldings? What's the difference? Who built which in Malaysia and in NYC? And: when "classes" are concerned [do you think that sociology is going to help you in this case?]: is power in Malaysia based on classes? What's the real basis of authoritarian rule? And does this authoritarian rule relates to business logic? How? What's the specific origin of Malaysian authoritarian rule? Is it ethnic? Or is it a "specific" adaption of the generic authoritarian warranty on business which usually lulls european industrialists into their worst disasters?That seems to me the good starting point.You wanted a teacher, you got a tutor.guest44 11/14/00 1:53 PM RE: class? This is actually just another flame thrown by a clueless swiss-german admiral. He is begging for the same lecture Babelicious Bach and I have been repeating to him for over a year now. And he continually gets similar hints and answers with which to suffix his continuing education. He cannot seem to distinguish the difference Mahathir's Erections for his Ego, actual business edifices....and by extension, what the 'legitimate' occupancy rate is.As for the 'class' question, remember that you speak with a Swiss. Which is to say, he speaks of 'class' in a financial/per capita income/annual salary capacity. He wouldn't be able to differentiate between a Bhumiputra and a Peninsulare -- or if indeed there is any differentiation.In any event, with these basic assumptions, put forth a lecture admiral. Rather than debate what you consider prejudices or misunderstanding of socio-cultural make-up by Prepmaster Bannier, just give him a thorough answer rather than that we all have to go through this insidious process of attacking "question-phrasing," and answering queries with interrogatives. No learning can be shared or garnered if we continue in your manner.Lastly, Ozy Miani specifically informed the group of the organic format of this website. Anything goes. Clever questions, flamethrowing, thesis statements...We assumed from Ozy's carte-blanche that boring questions could find forum here as well. Sorry if they lead you to soporific bliss, but Ozy said anything goes. Prepmaster 11/14/00 2:00 PM RE: RE: class? No I didn't state a thesis...yeti find it more interesting to discuss than porn. i wanted to discuss the issues of glitter glamour highrises beside shanties. what's wrong with that? the admiral admiral@consilia.com 11/18/00 1:08 PM Philippines, Mother Teresa, Diana and mob rule Philippines seem unwilling to escape the feminization of power struggle and the poisonous compound of matriarchal catholicism and welfare populism. Enjoy the brief euphory. This will make Philippines an even better place to live for european tourists (cheap flesh). This was the meaning of my recommendation to mr Bannier.guest44 11/14/00 2:14 PM RE: RE: RE: class? "Glittering glamour highrises" vs "shanties?" You still can't get it through your thick skull can you Prepfaggster?Or do u even bother to read the replies... u talking about monuments (Mahathir's Erections), actual business structures, etc...? Or are you suffering from dysentery of the mouth?ozy miani@consilia.com 11/14/00 2:12 PM RE: RE: RE: class? benny: rumours that Prepmaster is just looking for a wife in Malaysia. have fun with these guys. guest44 11/14/00 2:17 PM RE: RE: RE: RE: class? bENNY? is that a respectable name for a man purported to be older than ozy and thus, hung like the wrinkled balls of Methuselah. I'll call you Benjamin dear admiral, if only to preserve your dignity.Medical products Raman 01/19/01 2:55 PM Medical products Any views on this sectorI feel quite bullish on it. I like JNJ, MNMD and VAR, JNJ could be a good short trem play before it's resultsany views?os any comments? more on ballots words numbers and epistemology ozy miani@consilia.com 12/19/00 5:13 PM more on ballots, words, numbers and epistemology It's worth reading a note in today's "Opinion Journal". The note reports and comments two papers, one by Ron Rosenbaum ("The NY Observer") and one by Alan Wolfe (in "Salon", where else?). Both papers try to describe the legal wrangling about the "real intentions" of Florida's infamous ballots as an issue of "objective truth versus obscurantism". The "objective truth" [btw: it's not TRUTH who is objective, it's reality. Truth is a pragmatic effect of objectivity. Whatever...] would've resided, according to these papers, in the "deep" interpretation of a careful recount of votes. In short, mr Bush is a liar. Oh: more: Ron Rosenbaum says mr Bush could've mixed well with such frogallectuals as Jacques Derrida [burp] and Roland Barthes [*prat*, if you understand what I mean]. Meaning: the psychoanalytical and fuzzy-logical would've been on the side of mr Scalia. Worth reading. Worth reading it. Carefully. Because only Communist propaganda in the '50s and '70s made a so huge use of 1) junk thought dressed in scientific clothes, and 2) perfect reversal and misinterpretation of the adversaries' words.Yes: mr derrida would've done it. Mr Althusser too: the man who tought that you need to thing AGAINST somebody. And ended his life chocking his wife.links: opinionjournal.com, observer.com, www.salon.comozy miani@consilia.com 12/19/00 7:37 PM ... can't be real ... I Just got some time to "re-read" it "carefully", "close", "listening to all its echoes" [he he]. And I just can't fucking believe the Rosenbaum paper is NOT tongue-in-cheek [no, not THOSE cheeks...]. I can't believe he is serious. Pure Ellsworth Toohey. thx for comments. ozy miani@consilia.com 12/19/00 5:29 PM ... and the Holocaust, of course. Ah, la banalization du mal... Oops! I forgot the best! Wolfe concludes his paper comparing the "honesty" of the "ballot interpretation" front with Roosevelt's assessment of Pearl Harbor bombing; and, on the other side, he compares the position of mr Bush or ms Scalia with the Nazi manipulation of truth about the Holocaust. Speak about objective evaluation of things![that's the other side of what I noted a couple of days ago: the idiot copywriter calling the dot-com stocks' slump "a holocaust"].My life story..... Thud McGuffin tmcguffin@bloomberg.net 12/24/00 4:57 AM My life story..... If you want to know more about me, visit my home page:www.geocities.com/thudmcguffin/Happy Holidays Chatters!ozy miani@consilia.com 12/24/00 10:48 AM one happy childhood wow... really professional, and truly moving. The bike... Memories... The kids' photos... THE SWEETS!Only one thing is missing: "IT". In such a neighborhood, you kids must of course have a colourful but vaguely unsettling clown, living in the gutters and killing people... why didn't you include his (oops: "its") picture too?Now that I think of it: wasn't there a guy named "stephen" living with you? you should remember him: must've been the neighborhood's "silent guy". He could be somewhere in a bank now. "bank" as in "banking", not "bank" as in "buried in the concrete of an enbankment"Ok, thud: you definitely were able to frighten me. are you happy now? Best wishes, and may your celebrations of the "eternal return" (aka "xmas and happy new year") be as scary as the undertones of your web page.new exergue consilia analyst@consilia.com 01/11/01 10:05 PM new exergue Men who believe that they are accomplishing something by speaking speak in a different way from men who believe that speaking is a waste of time. Bobby Shaftoe has learned most of his practical knowledge - how to fix a car, butch a deer, throw a spiral, talk to a lady, kill a Nip - from the latter type of man. For them, trying to do anything by talking is like trying to pound in a nail with a screwdriver. Sometimes you can even see the desperation spread over such a man's face as he listens to himself speak.Men of the other type - the ones who use speech as a tool of their work, who are confident and fluent - aren't necessarily more intelligent, or even more educated. It took Shaftoe a long time to figure that out.Anyway, everything was net and tidy in Bobby Shaftoe's mind until he met two of the men in Detachment 2702: Enoch Root and Lawrence Pritchard Waterhouse. He can't put his finger in what bugs him about those two. During the weeks they spent together on Qwghlm, he spent a lot of time listening to them yammer at each other, and began to suspect that there might be a third category of man, a kind so rare that Shaftoe never met any of them until now.(N. Stephenson, Cryptonomicon, Arrow/Random House 1999, pp.372/373)thud mcguffin 01/16/01 4:47 AM RE: new exergue wue! ozy miani@consilia.com 01/14/01 2:08 PM uhm... this is of course the same Shaftoe guy who was trained to "always obey an order, even when his body told him NOT to". The guy had a strange idea of mind, body and language. Why can't we just choose exergues describing what we think? instead of choosing quotations needing comments and double-reading? option trading and rocket sciencewebmaster info@consilia.com 12/08/00 11:19 AM option trading and "rocket science" You will find some ideas and comments about logical issues in option system trading at pages 190/230 of chatline transcription [choose "chatline" on the menu]. They are a good "case history" in our ongoing debate about the ECONOMIC sense of so-called "rocket science" in finance. Comments and contributions are welcome, in the chat forum or on this messageboard. Ozy Is it true that shintoist come to Japan through Gobi? Hiro hik@bloomberg.net 11/28/00 3:18 PM Ozy, Is it true that shintoist come to Japan through Gobi? Ozy, Is it true that shintoist come to Japan through Gobi?JJ said you daid it.admiral admiral@consilia.com 11/28/00 4:50 PM Japanese and Jews I think that the most serious scholar of links and differences between hebrew and japanese civilizations was my late friend Shichihei Yamamoto, aka Isaia Ben Dasan. You may read his book "Nihonjin to Yudayajin" [The japanese and the Jews], published in Japanese by Yamamoto Shoten in 1970 then reprinted in 1982. It is a very accurate study of real and unreal dychotomies: Zachary vs Onda Moku, Sanhedrin and the "law beyond the law", family vs contract, desert vs island, consanguineity vs election, abacus vs formulas, and so on. Enjoy the reading, and we will discuss it later. hiro 11/30/00 11:25 AM RE: Japanese and Jews I don't read that book. But I'm interested in this theme.*Many shintoist Japanese like Judaism. Many shintoist Japanese height Alab.*Many shintoist Japanese belive that shintoist Japanese are descendant of Jew.*Japanese culture is very different from another Asia. For example Japanese language belong to Turky grup, isn't China-Tibet group.*I larned that Japanese origine is not clear.But I have not that kind of knowlidge. I don't know what is the shintoism, jewism & buddism. I'm Roman Cathoric.Hiroozy miani@cpnsilia.com 11/28/00 4:53 PM RE: Japanese and Jews yeah, right. And you really think these goons are gonna read it? Come on... All you will get is:1) Hiroshi asking if you think there's religious life on Mars;2) JJ (in one of his various impersonations), ozy miani@consilia.com 11/28/00 4:59 PM oops, wrong maneuver ... I was saying:2) JJ (in one of his impersonations):a) declaring that he read the book, in DVD formatb) affirming that he read a better book in the same issue, about a filipino boy marrying a palestinian girl, and both being punished by their principal for throwing stones at tanksc) shouting at you because you dared to read a Japanese book [you will have a field day explaining him it's available in hebrew too]d) after all this, ME I will receive a note or a posting by JJ, saying that I menaced him because this posting remotely hints that he may be scolded by his principal.hehe...ozy miani@consilia.com 11/28/00 3:44 PM Religion, myths, legends and fog Let me put it simply: I don't give a fucking damn about it 11/28/00 3:24 PM RE: Ozy, Is it true that shintoist come to Japan through Gobi? Ozy, Is it true that shintoist come to Japan through Gobi?JJ said you daid it.correct; daid--->saidOzy's mother and Vehicles Anonymous 01/05/01 11:07 AM Ozy's mother and Vehicles Ozy's momma is so slutty she could suck start a Harley.Ozy's momma is slutty, she could suck the chrome of a vintage Bentley.J.J. Hemlock 01/05/01 1:12 PM RE: Ozy's mother and Vehicles What happened to all those other posts. Ozy's rant. Thud's post. All the rest?I thought all posts would be honoured here. If there is no "censure" (perhaps he meant censorship), does this imply that someone out there is going on-the-cheap on server space? Budgetary constraints?thud mcguffin 01/16/01 4:59 AM RE: RE: Ozy's mother and Vehicles Gentlemen,It appears that Osvaldo has done us a great disjustice.ThudP.S. Would you like to be reversing a BMW into your parking spot come bonus time? thud mcguffin 01/16/01 4:56 AM RE: RE: Ozy's mother and Vehicles Gentlemen,It appears that Osvaldo has done us a great disjustice.Thud ozy 01/16/01 8:49 AM ? Yeah, right. A great injustice. maybe next time I'll bring in Mame and let her answer you. (Then I'd have to listen to JJ for months, whining about the Calvary etc etc"... nahhh. I better let you boy write your graffitis) ozy miani@consilia.com 01/05/01 2:34 PM "honour"? Notion of "honour" is completely out of question here. Anybody on the face of earth in the last 60 centuries will tell you that "honour" is the CONTRARY of cowardice, anonymity, parasitism ("cheap"? Did you pay for the site on which you come just to insult me?). To tribute honour is to PAY for something worth it. So please choose words appropriate for your condition, Anonymous. I mean: write all the shit you want to, but leave honour out of it.ozy miani@consilia.com 01/05/01 2:06 PM nothing happened nothing is missing, Anonymous. The postings were simply restored as they were when you started. When we restored the old version, the comments to the non-anonymous version fell too. Simul stabunt, simul cadent. But this should be no problem to you, since Thud didn't comment YOUR posting, he commented the posting by Joncy Sumulong and Kris Hopkins, and you are not Joncy Sumulong, nor Kris Hopkins, right? So: why do you care? ozy miani@consilia.com 01/05/01 11:22 AM anonymous I received a series of messages from "anonymous", cautioning me against revealing his identity, and trumpeting about "censure", etc.So, since I wouldn't like to be class-sued for discrimination by "Anonymous Anonymouses" (the powerflul therapeutical association), here is [above] Anonymous' intelligent and politically relevant posting, his name duly erased. Now Anonymous' rights are upheld, and he is safe and protected, like repentant smokers, or Netscape users, or Microsoft's negroes. At one condition: renouncing his name.As you can see, name matters.K&J 01/05/01 1:07 PM RE: anonymous Kindly post the message in original format as requested please. Author should be "K&J," not "Anonymous." Thank you sir.ozy miani@consilia.com 01/05/01 2:02 PM anonymous pathetic. It looks like those spoiled boys that at 8 years pretend, for a week or two, to call themselves "Batman". It would psychotic, if it wasn't just the social mark of a imbecile generation K & J 01/08/01 12:01 AM RE: anonymous YO MOMMA LOOKS LIKE BATMAN.Palm Beach hand recounts and so innuendo heidi heidi@consilia.com 11/30/00 4:23 PM "Palm" Beach, "hand" recounts, and so innuendo George W. Bush and Al Gore implicitly agreed that Americans are seeing too much inappropriate material in popular entertainment. Governor George W. Bush, stated that there is too much bloody violence in movies and on television. Vice President Al Gore stated that the media presents Americans with too much sex and frontal nudity. In other words, Bush thinks there is too much Gore, and Gore thinks there is too much Bush.ozy miani@consilia.com 11/30/00 8:46 PM boss disagrees I firmly disagree with your display of abject indifference and philistinism. Bush and Gore are NOT interchangeable. Quine, again ozy miani@consilia.com 01/04/01 4:08 PM Quine, again I deeply disagree with mr Scruton's obituary of W.V.O.Quine, today in "Wall Street Journal" (Truth Before relevance".I understand mr Scruton's tribute to a serious thinker, and aknowledge many of mr Scruton's premises about philospohy's role (a role which, I agree, the Rorties and the Derridas destroy). But I think Quine has heavy responsibilities (as Peirce had) in destabilizing metaphysics. It was on THAT base that the Derridas and the "militant relativists" could prosper.Yes: "nowhere", "reading his books", "one could argue that W.V.O.Quine was a conservative". I agree.But what else is a philosopher expected to contribute, other than what's in his books?What W.V.O.Quine contributed to politics, by his PHILOSOPHICAL work, was not neutral. He gave a decisive HELP to the FOUNDATIONS of a ideology which is the OPPOSITE of what a rational conservative should support.Deconstructionists wake up every morning and give thanks to the likes of mr Quine, for saying that "philosophy has nothing more to say about first-order questions" (and much more and worse). Then they take a shower, have their capucino, go to their schools (or newspapers... I appreciated the "journalist" insult) and teach their students the primacy of interior decoration on philosophy.Which brings a LOT of political consequences.Because, for philosophers who think that "you have to think against somebody else", there's nothing more important that finding their own legitimation in political adversaries' intellectual errors.Quine did nothing against it. Worse, he didn't take care of what the consequences of his philosophy (and philosophy it is, not science) would be. Then, he is a great scholar, but definitely not a hero nor a giant. Hope that American Philosophy relies on stronger supporters.RIP Volkswagen Quine ozy miani@consilia.com 01/01/01 2:57 PM RIP Volkswagen Quine Willard Van Orman Quine died.He was best known as "the thinker with more 'V's than anybody else, except Von Braun".He taught at Van Harvvvard Vuniversity.He explained to generations of poor students that "physical objects are comparable episthemologically to the gods of Homer. The physical objects and the gods differ only in degree and not in kind". He tried for decades to give a linguistic support to pragmatism.He was definitely V.W.V.Wrong.And now he is dead, too.V.W.V.Won't miss him. Shit I think I broke this website My replies keep posting guest44 11/13/00 2:33 PM Shit! I think I broke this website! My replies keep posting! web master info@consilia.com 11/13/00 2:59 PM My replies keep posting! Reduce medication. Everything will be ok Short story Hiro hik@bloomberg.net 12/18/00 8:34 AM Short story =We are hungry= In Japan I went to Cathedral. So I must hear long long bishop's Christmas SERMON. His SERMON was too long than another Fathers. I always get tired of it.One Christmas mass, when bishop's SERMON was crazy long, thanks to his SERMON I thought that [I'm forgotten the real meaning of Christmas. I must think about religion just like priests, not about presents, eating and drinking.]At that time one Father whispered in another Father's ear, "His SERMON is too long. Doesn't he know WE'RE ALL VERY HUNGRY?" Actually his voice was very loud and could be heard by everyone in the church. We burst into laughter right after cute whisper. Poor bishop his face turned red, he must finished quite quickly after that.Usually after Christmas mass our church open the Christmas party. This time we said "WE ARE HUNGRY" instead of Christmas greetings.=My sweat memory= About this time Czech people often ask me, "Do you know Christmas?" "Do Buddhist also cerebrate Buddha's birthday?" "You are Christian! It's a very strange, Asian people are stupid, so they can not believe Jesus" In fact Christmas is a most important events in Japan.There's no doubt that when I was a child, Christmas was the most exciting time on the year for me. I used to write a letter to Santa for the purpose of asking for various present. (In these days I didn't know my father read it and he bought present.) Then on the Christmas Eve I would hang a big stocking at the end of the bed. I'd wake up so excited on Christmas Morning. The stocking at the end of the bed was full of the presents I had requested. YES, SANTA HAD VISITED ME! Written by Hiro Sorry my nice Jap-English Tech Raman 01/19/01 11:55 AM Tech I agree with the story that a tech rally is likely this year. But does anyone believe that it is now.I can believe we've seen the low, but can you beleive the myriad of stock price calls (double and treble) their current values.I can beleive but, NOW, technically we're overbought/ coming into that tension area. For me I'll wiat before I commit big, on the next downturn - if the recent low holds and we can see a flattening of the trend lines I'll believe, until then isn't it just a little early.Any thoughts? ozy miani@consilia.com 01/19/01 1:46 PM one question I have one question, Raman: is the strategy of just shorting bounces forbidden in your firm, or is it a metaphisical blind spot? Both way it seems some kind of limitation in a FUCKING BEAR MARKETRaman 01/19/01 2:12 PM RE: one question if it's still a fcuking bear why are analysts and humans becoming bullish?ozy miani@consilia.com 01/19/01 2:16 PM good question 1) greenspan put + no idea of monetary problems?2) just wrong?3) translate "bullish": ndx 3000/3100? dow 10900?raman 01/19/01 2:24 PM RE: and another How about option expiry, i wonder how we're trading latter today / early next weekRaman 01/19/01 2:51 PM RE: RE: and another If that thing went to 3K (short term)I'd be shorting like there was no tomorrowNo I don't think so. Like I say I think today and possibly Monday is it for now, and I'd like to see if we can stay away from the low on recovery to determine a more bullish tackWhen I look now, it seems confusing to note both bullish and bearish tendencies in same sector stocks (well maybe not same sector, but like an RIMM long SEBL short type scenario.)what's your upside target, and also you tech guys comment pls.ozy miani@consilia.com 01/19/01 3:31 PM targets as for me, I am deeply immersed in contemplation of the currency/commodity mess. And it says to me that will still haven't seen the full impact of the "rebirth of the cycle",. First the cycle "didn't exist". Now "it will last two months". hu hu. yeah, right. as for tech guy, the 2800/3000/3100 progression is something he suggested me. but our general strategy is use it to short. Would change scenario only after significant fiscal news in US (a mini-rally on expectations next week, just to say hello to Dubya? since the welcome party was spoiled by the recounts? could be). ozy miani@consilia.com 01/19/01 2:33 PM another? hey, smartass, what about answering the previous first? do you mean 3000/3100? Raman 01/19/01 11:57 AM RE: Tech My short term strategy (latter today/ early next week depending on how expiry goes) is Long PG and short SEBLany views?Thanks Preppmaster 12/05/00 5:25 PM Thanks I would like to thank Consilia Team for setting up this Board and for the good answers to sometimes ridculous questions. I hope i can show my appreciation and bring one or two topics to discuss. Guest875 tweetylex@netzero.com 12/11/00 1:54 AM RE: Thanks You really are a brown-nosing limpwrist. The King is dead long live the King YUM!!! admiral admiral@consilia.com 12/16/00 12:33 AM The King is dead, long live the King. YUM!!! You gang of idiots maybe did not understand it. But the Clinton era ended three days ago, and since then you are talking nothing else than blow jobs. Oh Mythical parricide! The fallen King-Father transmits his symbols to the Murderer Sons. Revolutanioaries, cannibals, suckers: what will you do next: smoke cuban cigars? J.J. Hemlock 12/16/00 5:01 AM Mythical Parricide, Murderer-sons, and More Dread More Dread is in the offing,Elvis has left the buildingozy miani@consilia.com 12/16/00 12:37 AM mythical fathers? mythical fathers, cannibalism and parricide? ah... THAT's what it means, when Kris Hopkins chews his daddy's cigar!KrisHopkins 12/16/00 6:29 PM RE: mythical fathers? Ozzy.. I hope youre not suggesting that my father is in anyway "Mythical". I assure you that he is real, very big and living in Kensington..and if you dont watch it..he'll be round to sort you out! ozy miani@consilia.com 12/16/00 7:10 PM father? I said "daddy" 1) your father? I said "daddy". Check a dictionary [oh, well, maybe dictionaries don't report it...], or ask JJ, if you wanna know what a "daddy" is for a young and elastic boy. I wouldn't ever question anybody's family. Oh, well, maybe... no no, forget it.2) more on the "Asia --> swallowing/spitting" saga: some dork today sent me a spam mail advertising some scam: a money management magic who promises extraordinary results in yen trading [check our chatline for some serious stuff abt Y, btw]: well, the monkey's mail address is . I didn't check if this "trader"'s offices are in Boracay. I somehow suspect they could be in Hawaii, but don't know for sure. Any hints? Thanks.ozy miani@consilia.com 12/17/00 12:59 AM the address is... ... how happens the address didn't display? uhm... Anyway, the address of self-appointed best yen trader I was talking abt in my orevious message is: SPITTAL@HOM..etc etc. ozy miani@consilia.com 12/16/00 7:37 PM Kensington? oh. now that I think about it... did you mention Kensington? Funny.KrisHopkins 12/17/00 4:13 PM "Daddy"It is my understanding that Daddy is another term for father. If you and that other mincer-boy JJ have another meaning..then i suggest you keep it within you little shift-lifter circle! veronica hushhush@consilia.com 12/17/00 4:29 PM he loves his family this boy loves his family and is not afraid to show it. This is worth respect. How cute a puppy. Guest875 tweetylex@netzero.com 12/18/00 12:52 AM RE: he loves his family Speaking of things canine in nature, that puppy Kris needs a bitch. The strange case of dr Hospers and Mr Gore ozy miani@consilia.com 12/14/00 7:53 PM The strange case of dr Hospers and Mr Gore Let's forget for one second the juvenile anguish of our friend "Candide" ["juvenile" extends well into the 40s/50s when Bocconi students and alumni are in question], and please let me heartily recommend the following reading. It deals with the relation btw lie and how liberal politics absorbed some of the libertarian relativism. Giving birth to the "new age" notions about language. Which include Amazon.com's balance sheets as well as Clinton's famous definition of what "is" means, or any internet chatter's idea of "what's in a name". A linguist who was a presidential candidate in the USA is not a trivial case study. He theorized relativism about language, THEN he ran for President, so, well... he may be worth reading, even if the free world just got rid of his best (worst) pupil.For now, let's just read John Hospers, "Introduction to Philosophical Analysis", Prentice Hall, NY 1953. Later, I'll discuss it.Those among you who don't need to read a book to know what it contains, may go immediately to Candide's review of the book on this same web site. Of course if you are among them you won't need to read that review either. But this is not my paradox, let him solve his.They came in search of the American dream YoungSkywalker 12/17/00 4:27 PM They came in search of the American dream In the spring of 1980, the port at Mariel Harbour was opened and thousands set sail for the United States... all in search of the american dream. One of them found it on the sun-washed avenues of Miami.. wealth, power and passion beyond his wildest dreams. He was Tony Montana. The world would remember him by another name... SCARFACE Guest875 tweetylex@netzero.com 12/18/00 1:03 AM 4 films AFTER but 5 years BEFORE....... New York, 1975. After doing 5 years in prison, Carlito Brigante, "de Jeh Pee Mohrgan of schmack beeshness", wants to go straight, out of the streets. He wants to settle down with his beloved Gail but the streets won't leave him alone. His lawyer and friend Dave Kleinfeld asks Khurleetoh Bhree-ghun-te for a favor. The kind of favor that kills faster than a bullet.Hey, Tongnee Mongtah-nuh! "You think you're big time??"veronica hushhush@consilia.com 12/17/00 7:46 PM mmmhhhhh...... mmmmhhhh... I'm thrilled. Thriller in Manila 2 YoungSkywalker 12/14/00 10:29 PM Thriller in Manila 2 A year and two months after the original.. there will be a second Manila expedition mounted by Her Brittanic Majesty's envoy. As Her Majesty's secretary of State has afforded me the use of a passport, I shall be paying a state visit to the Royal court of Genie.. visiting the Isle of Boracay and will no-doubt be lavishing my vocal talents on "Angie", "California dreaming"..and a whole load of boy band songs to the the appeasement of the local ladies. I shall also be sporting some new Ralphage. (JJ please take note) The blue Thomas Pink herring-bone will not be in the collection! YoungSkywalker 12/14/00 10:32 PM RE: Thriller in Manila 2 If Greg comes to Boracay, what will be the odds on him looking like a German sex tourist???? Guest875 tweetylex@netzero.com 12/15/00 1:14 AM RE: RE: Thriller in Manila 2 About as much chance as his NEVER EVER getting laid by an attractive woman within this lifetime.Preppmaster 12/18/00 5:11 PM RE: RE: RE: Thriller in Manila 2 or as much as being approached by someone asking how many pesos i want for bending over. trading systems PEG savana savanamgt@bloomberg.net 01/09/01 4:23 PM trading systems / PEG As concerns an indicator now in fashion, namely PEG (price earning growth), I will discuss about it in the following daysDiscussion will be linked to the general topic of pseudotheories and pseudoscienceIn the past I was acritical on the bull market, and I was paying attention only to my mechanical trading system signalsI was trying to rationalize "after" the signals obtainedAnyway they had at least the emrit of keeping you with the trend and weren't falling in love with a sector or with a stockThe system works fine, but I don't understnad perfectly the reasons for thatWhy did the market fall on last Friday for instance? The system gave me a sell signalI can only muddle trough some hypothesesmaybe the short covering terminatedor elsebut I don't perfectly whyThe simple fact is that the system "sold"Of course, since I worked out that system, I know why it soldBut maybe I'm expecting something impossible from thatnamely an explanation that goes further and beyond the aspects of volatility etc...In some cases I can find a good match between system indications and fundamental reasonsie: Banco BilbaoSystem is in buy on that stockonly after a few days I discovered whyIt's the bank less exposed to the revenues from investment banking activitiesand marginally exposed to loans towards the telecom sectorjust one flawit has an exposure toward Argentinabut after IMF agreements, even that should be alrightthe system "bought" before I knew these thingsbecause it exploits informations available by other investorsthat reflect themselves on the price action over a specified stockWe talked some time ago about a paradox ensuing from thatif we all behave this way, we will have an informationless marketI wish I could integrate my stat/math analyseswith qualitative onesbecause if teh system tells me to sell before a 10% drop, i feel comfortable with thatbut one day i will get the indication after the 10% drop already occurred.as regards a literature about those issuesof private information, trading volume, stock return variancesyou can read:"Continous auctions and insider trading" by Kyle, Econometrica 55, 1985" A theory of intraday tarding patterns" by Admati and Pfleiderer, Reviwe of financial studies 1, 1988"Noise" by Black, Journal of Finance 41, 1986"differential information and dynamic behavior of stock trading volume" by He and Wang, Review of Fin studies (RFS since now) 8, 1995"Equilibrium price with institutional investors and with naive traders", Fed paper, Apr 1998urgent for Claire Swire veronica veronica@consilia.com 12/14/00 8:58 AM urgent for Claire Swire Claire, I have urgent news for you. Wherever you are, call me. Don't do anything before you call me. Guest875 tweetylex@netzero.com 12/14/00 9:59 AM RE: urgent for Claire Swire Is she an old (over 40 in age) attractive woman as well? If she is and you contact her, both of you don't do anything before you call ME!Guest875 tweetylex@netzero.com 12/14/00 10:03 AM RE: RE: urgent for Claire Swire Surprisingly enough, a search on the net yielded a picture of claire swire on a website (not a joke( attending a Mayfair auction event. I used google.com, typed in Claire Swire London, and a webpage with her picture was described. Upon further investigation perusing through the said website, however, I could not find the picture. I suspect that perhaps after the famous "yours is yum" email circumnavigated the email/globe probably more than once since its inception the last 72 hours, perhaps the webmasters of the site pulled out the said picture after what must have been a surprising rise in number of daily visitors. I do not, however, discount the possibility that I may have been navigating through the website properly. so perhaps her picture lies there dormant someplace in the site. Please let me know if you yield any positive results from tyour own investigation into the matter. thanks. Vienna and I ain't talkin about Ultravox Jesse James 12/28/00 7:20 AM Vienna and I ain't talkin about Ultravox Okay...let's get the dates right.Okay. Okay. Uh, six months from now, or last night? Um... Last night. Six months from last night, which was, uh, uh, June 16th.So uh, Track Nine, six months from now, at six o'clock at night. While you are getting the dates down, don't forget to bring me the horns of Wilmington's Cow. Leave it near the Prata.Don't forget to spank the Pinball machine and yell "Merde!"I'd have her spanky my ass and say "Merde!" joe melli@consilia.com 12/28/00 1:41 PM Vienna / Ultravox Ultravox? Weren't they one of the "Band Aid" ("Feed the World", "Do they know it's Xmas")bands?J.J. Hemlock 12/29/00 7:01 AM RE: Vienna / Ultravox / Midge Ure I'm away for a week and look at all the animosity that has arisen in this Time of Giving. 27 odd posts in the Frogadelic "Ozy the nutter" vs "Lavinio, Stefano Phd" discussion....with some other folks jumping in, or perhaps it's one of Stela's incarnations. Oh well, all in good fun.As to Joe Smelly's query, yes Ultravox was one of the "Band Aid" bands.What am I to infer from the posed question; that Shoeless Joe was born in the 60's or just not as clueless as Ozy-baby....Ps: I like the Hideoshi, Nobunaga, Tokugawa reference. Hehehe...Stefano seems to know his Nipponese history...heheh. funny reference too. ozy miani@consilia.com 12/28/00 10:39 AM re: le nom des fous s'ecrit partout Guess what? I will stick to my promise not to erase anything from this messageboard. Its is not a generic "free speech" position, but a rule asserting that that one specific exists and is worth at least a first reading.BECAUSE of freedom of speech, BECAUSE of it, I asked the courtesy [=the intellectual honesty] of SIGNING the messages, not out of control-freakness, but out of a total respect for material structure of language, which INCLUDES names (names are part of matter). And because NAMES bar language from becoming platonian-cartesian dialogue. Names are a material barrier against mystics and self-delusion.And I commented (and I WILL COMMENT) every time the "nomination" issue is sidestepped, because erasure of names and infinite metonimical proliferation of "arbitrary" signifiers are a philosophical issue in contemporary thought (obviously, somebody who believes that Aristotheles wrote the "Phaedrus", instead of Plato, and that Phaedrus was the servant of Aristotheles, instead of Socrates, will find it difficult to understand any philosophical issue).Once this affirmed, I will pose the real question.Who are you talking TO?If you cannot use names, if you need irony to smart out a malevolent god or devil, in short if you DIALOGUE instead of speaking, you have a wide choice of place-takers for your interlocutor. Dissemination of reality requires you to look for these If you don't waste your time sidestepping the matter of language, you have one and only interlocutor.The others, included the goon who posted the message about Vienna [hehe, Vienna. What happened to your Popperian alter-ego? Did you choke him, mr Althusser?], may well fuck off.Wall Street YoungSkywalker 12/22/00 1:06 PM Wall Street It was a battle set in the greatest jungle of them all...WALL STREET. A place where honour is traded for power and peace of mind for a piece of the action. Against this background, two men form a dangerous friendship - one ruthless multi-millionaire corporate raider, the other a newly minted power hungry stockbroker. Two men trading their women, families and each other against all odds and every rule in the book...... Budd Fox 12/27/00 11:41 PM RE: Wall Street Blue Horseshoe loves Annacott Steel.Which BART for libartarians? ozy miani@consilia.com 12/17/00 12:07 AM Which BART for "libartarians"? Hu ho. No no. There's some misunderstanding. Sorry. When I joked about "libArtarians", the reference was not to Bart Simpson. The model is Bart Kosko, and his "Fuzzy thinking: the new science of fuzzy logic". J.J. Hemlock 12/17/00 1:24 PM Dr. Seuss Is it Bartholomew and the Oobleck,of Theodore Geisel's pen's flicks and fleck?The magic men and their divinings of,a 'Forecasting' that makes Oz cringe and scoff.Confections of logic that is so fuzzyenough to make one vertiginous dizzy.Arcane incantations so meant to dazzlethe easily impressed everyday rabble.It goes like this,their magic hiss."Shuffle, duffle, muzzle, muff.Fista, wista, mista-cuff.We are men of groans and howls,mystic men who eat boiled owls."Alas but mighty Oz shall not have anyof anything so downright false and silly,he'd pref a brekky of green eggs and ham,over a blatant unabashed straight scam.ozy miani@consilia.com 12/17/00 2:59 PM maybe it's Bart Simpson, after all... words that count etc ozy miani@consilia.com 12/15/00 5:07 PM words that count, etc just a margin note about words that count, or don't, and about the predominance of idiots in marketing depts. Prize for "Best Focus on Relative Size of Issues" to Deborah Butt [nomen, omen] at Publicis Dialog, who contributed a paper to Business Wire, in which last months' fall of internet stocks on NDX is called "The Dot Com Holocaust" (dec 15th, 2000). The phrase is the TITLE of the paper.Vicky wander@hhonline.net 02/05/01 1:29 AM RE: words that count, etc what words count WWW Hiro hik@bloomberg.net 12/07/00 8:04 AM WWW When? Who Win? US prezidencial election?I'm tired! This is a just like never ending story. Xmas present Hiro hik@bloomberg.net 12/11/00 8:13 AM Xmas present Tom is a 4-year old little boy. He loves his parents.Every day he go to bed 9-hour evening. One day, when before Xmas, he had a bad dream. Reason of it he got up in midnight. He felt fear just like every little boy. So he wanted to sleep with mama & papa. When he opened door of parent's bed room. Papa took off his pants and said, "Next I want cute girl" Mama also took off her pants and said "I want son" Tom thought his parents have some work for Xmas, he must sleep by himself.Next day Tom played in his room. Mama came to him and asked him, "What do you want to request Santa Clause at Xmas present?" Tom took off his pants and said "Fire engine!" Author is Hiro P.S. Sorry my beautiful Jap-English.Are you gay? Hiro 11/16/00 12:34 AM Are you gay? Please stop uncomfortable gay chat!Let's talk about porn! veronica hushhush@consilia.com 11/16/00 2:34 PM RE: Are you gay? anytime, hiro-honey. Join me and Heidi, and bring a camera, niky-niky sweetiePreppmaster 11/17/00 7:12 AM RE: RE: Are you gay? ??? Guest875 11/17/00 7:59 AM RE: RE: RE: Are you gay? greg still "question marks" his true gender orientationbilbao argentina ozy miani@consilia.com 01/09/01 7:14 PM bilbao / argentina just a margin note to savana's posting about systems (will post in here so not to interfere with discussion re trding systems): don't, definitely don't take IMF intervention in argentina as a success. best possiblle thing coming from the argentina plan is: it can be the pretext for bush administration to cross T's and dot I's about IMF Boracay Bustout! K&J 01/16/01 7:03 AM Boracay Bust-out! We are here inflicting our International Playboynesqueness on the lovely minxes of this exquisite isle; and much to their appreciation and sheer joy.It has been nice being brutally frank and honest with all of you.PS: Ozy's Momma is so slutty you could drive a truck through her, pull a U-turn, and still have 50 parking slots left for parking. Goes without saying that parking payment booth and attendant included ozy miani@consilia.com 01/16/01 9:25 AM Bust does "bust"-out mean that you 4 fags had a brand new breast implant before retiring to a "powder-like" beach? Cant East Europ take part in EMU? Please tell me your opinion! Hiro 11/23/00 1:41 PM Can't East Europ take part in EMU? Please tell me your opinion! Preppmaster 11/24/00 5:11 PM RE: Can't East Europ take part in EMU? Please tell me your opinion! I definitely sound zynical, but why should east european countries be part of EMU? EMU is a desaster already. if more banana republics are joining then you can really switch the lights out at the fancy European Central Bank Tower. When is the EU going to stop considering certain nations to join? Glitter Glamour buildings built on a rotten infrastructure. Funding hundert of millions of £ for a silly landmark called the millennium dome seems to be no problem, but a children hospital uuuuhhhh....ok Britain isn't part of the EMU (yet) - but hey once the single currency fcuks up we can always send the tons of paper they've printed to Manila to fix the shanties.radu radu_drag@hotmail.com 12/07/00 2:11 PM to preppmaster Preppmaster,your opinion on this matter is so absolutely british. I mean, snobish and filled with ignorance. I am writing this (although i shouldn't have had, i am totally opposed to fascist conversation) because i needed to point out some nonsenses in your answer:- british are so opposed to the idea of creating a unique currency, not because of some feelings of wrong or right doing (let's not forget that the sterlin crisis back in good ol' 1992 spilled over the crisis all over Europe), not from some idea of righteousness, but because GB cannot hold control (as much as it remained) over Europe finances. France or Germany will. But not GB. - u shouldn't talk about Eastern Europe integration. It's a shame and a offence towards everyone's memory (all those who died in the communist camps since your much adored Churchill cut the Europe in two with Stalin). And that doesn't make you better than the nazis.- GB was a colonial power and has always basd its development on taking advantage of the 3rd class economies (Manila you were talking about, metaphorically speaking, since it was a french colony - i'm just trying to improve your geography). - for your knowledge, Eastern Europe countries are not banana republics. Not geographically, nor economically. Ideas like yours show me a person who didn't travel so much. ozy miani@consilia.com 12/08/00 9:30 PM RE: to preppmaster Radu, thank you for your intervention. I appreciate your passion. And the rules of this website don't allow me to criticize you for calling Preppmaster "a fascist". But please let me stress some points: 1) if there is any "fascist" relic in Europe, it is the geopolitical residuals of "concentric" (aka Franco-German) Europe; I will be glad to detail this if you want to continue this discussion; 2) insulting somebody as a "fascist" without SPECIFIC references, is usually associated with communist militant retorts; you may want to choose more specific insults next time; 3) insulting somebody as "British" (Preppmaster is NOT a brit) as opposed to "European", meaning some kind of "anglo-saxon trying to control Europe through gold"... well, this has been too often a rethorical tool of... well... how could I say... well.. Radu: of fascists (in the literal and historical meaning of the word). Preppmaster was harsh, but please let be specific and accurate. Again: welcome in this forum joe melli@consilia.com 11/24/00 7:18 PM euro and Oestdrang Preppmaster, I hope you are not so naive: EMU is what it is because politicians who created it have a special idea of money. --> This idea of money is coherent with a form of politics. --> This form of politics is coherent with a form of geopolitics. --> And this form of geopolitics is perfectly coherent with Oestdrang. A nice drive to East, to shake hands with Russia. The euro was created for that purpose.Btw: it was not "dilution" who sank the euro. It's not Greece who caused euro's fall. It was "core Europe" who did it. And Euro's fall is part of that same idea of money and so on...It's not "dilution": it's averaging with Russia. Different.Debasing --> devaluation --> inflation --> enlargement -->war.Same old story.joe melli@consilia.com 11/23/00 1:51 PM East Europe/EMU 1) EMU must survive2) koruna and zloty must find a status beyond their anomalous condition [half-"ERM", half-"emergent-dollar-pegged" currencies]. This would take a) a different EMU b) a re-thinking of international monetary system.3) point 2) contradicts point 1).4) geopolitics will force the outcome. This may be lethal for EMU too.joe melli@consilia.com 11/24/00 4:34 PM RE: East Europe/EMU clarification: in my previous msg, "EMU must survive" means: "first of all, are you sure EMU will survive?" causality and quanta ozy miani@consilia.com 12/29/00 1:27 PM causality and quanta I am reading with pleasure the following dissertation. I expecially recommend chapters 5.4 and 5.5. They give valuable insights on implications of quantum mechanics for realist theories of causality. Discussion open on implications on financial analysis.Author: Rick MintoTitle: Foundations for a realist theory of causality, 1997available on the following website: enlightenment.supersaturated.com/essays/text/rickminto/diss/index.htmlcausality and quanta ozy miani@consilia.com 12/29/00 1:27 PM causality and quanta I am reading with pleasure the following dissertation. I expecially recommend chapters 5.4 and 5.5. They give valuable insights on implications of quantum mechanics for realist theories of causality. Discussion open on implications on financial analysis.Author: Rick MintoTitle: Foundations for a realist theory of causality, 1997available on the following website: enlightenment.supersaturated.com/essays/text/rickminto/diss/index.htmlcyclicals Raman 01/05/01 3:15 PM cyclicals does anyone believ that cyclicals are back in vogue, just because there's a rate cut?if so what about GP and TEX raman 01/19/01 11:10 AM RE: cyclicals > personally i think it's a good time to short them herejoe melli@consilia.com 01/08/01 4:33 PM cyclicals/rates I am not sure there will be a plain vanilla "falling rates" story. thud mcguffin 01/08/01 5:51 AM RE: cyclicals watch LB1 (GO)Personally I like LPX. Raman 01/05/01 3:24 PM RE: cyclicals Funny how cyclicals and techs became correlated over last 6 months ozy miani@consilia.com 01/05/01 3:30 PM cyclicals have a more specific question: given the monetary/commodities mess in last couple of years, woul you please be more specific about "cyclicals"? Don't you think that first interesting step would be to split the group? Don't you include MO in cyclicals? ozy miani@consilia.com 01/05/01 3:27 PM cyclicals how? directionless dingy part II oazy miani@consilia.com 01/05/01 4:01 PM directionless dingy, part II I always wondered what "politically correct" means. I always suspected it meant something OPPOSED to "economically correct". let's see what happens to BAC now ozy miani@consilia.com 01/05/01 4:43 PM the latina connection that's funny. who snitched abt losses by BAC? Maria Bartiromo (CNBC). This risk to poison the wonderful relations between BAC and the latino community (see below, "directionless dingy", part I) directionless dingy consilia miani@consilia.com 11/15/00 5:12 PM directionless dingy hehe. I told you about BAC. Until they dump the brat... ozy miani@consilia.com 11/20/00 7:05 PM take your chica for a trip on a directionless dingy BAC under 40. I owe you one, Lowe. I had promised you. You choose. Tequila? Vodka? Btw, enjoy the following:Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has been named one of the "Top 50 Companies for Latinas toWork for in the U.S." by LATINA Style magazine for the thirdconsecutive year."At Bank of America, we are committed to being an ethnically andculturally diverse employer and we are pleased to be recognized as oneof the top companies for Latinas to work for," said Leticia Aguilar,consumer executive for the Greater Los Angeles Division at Bank ofAmerica, who accepted the award on behalf of the bank.LATINA Style evaluated over 600 U.S. corporations for theirsurvey. The criteria included diversity among the corporate ranks,recruitment, minority vendor programs, work/life programs andbenefits. With a national circulation of 150,000 and a readership ofnearly 600,000, LATINA Style magazine reaches the Latina professional,the Latina college student and the Latina business owner.Bank of America has a long history of supporting the Hispaniccommunity. The bank provides in-language materials and services,including bank associates who speak Spanish and ATMs with a choice oflanguages. Also, Bank of America supports Hispanic cultural activitiesand organizations, including partnering with the National Council ofLa Raza since 1992.Bank of America, with $672 billion in assets, is the largest bankin the United States. It has full-service operations in 21 states andthe District of Columbia and provides financial products and servicesto 30 million households and two million businesses, as well asinternational corporate financial services for business transactionsin 190 countries. The company's stock (ticker:BAC) is listed on theNew York, Pacific, and London stock exchanges, and certain shares arelisted on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Visit www.bankofamerica.com foradditional information.Prepmaster 11/15/00 5:35 PM RE: directionless dingy BAC is a joke. And they don't even have to deal with the problems swiss banks had to deal with.Probably Lowe giving them problems...ts ts tsozy miani@consilia.com 11/15/00 6:38 PM RE: RE: directionless dingy who?Guest875 11/16/00 12:53 AM RE: RE: RE: directionless dingy he said Lowe. That would be Greg's naughty boyfriend.Preppmaster 11/16/00 8:12 AM RE: RE: RE: RE: directionless dingy hehe i remember those days about one year ogo when sook mae turned up. do lawyers swallow spit or just suck? veronica hushhush@consilia.com 12/15/00 12:57 AM do lawyers swallow, spit or just suck? Both protagonists in the infamous "Yam vs Yum" controversy are lawyers. Coincidence? I think not.veronica hushhush@consilia.com 12/15/00 3:29 PM lust? love? she? "she"? Do you still believe lawyers are sexuated? J.J. Hemlock 12/15/00 3:42 PM RE: lust? love? she? Immaterial. He, she, it. I find the intellectual-atrophy that is known as political-correctness dreadfully boring, if not excruciatingly laughable.veronica hushhush@consilia.com 12/15/00 3:46 PM law and sex Not relevant? I strongly disagree your honour. Asexuated lawyers are a icon of our times. J.J. Hemlock 12/15/00 2:24 PM Love, Lust, Showing-off Simple. If she's in love, she'll suck. If in lust, she swallows. And if she's showing-off, she'll gargle.Do you belive this story? Hiro 11/20/00 9:25 AM Do you belive this story? We, shouth part of Japanese, belive that we are from Israel. We came to Japan through sea road (through Philippine) reason of missionary work. About 2nd century we reached Japan. ozy miani@consilia.com 11/20/00 9:38 AM I don't "believe" in fishing tales, go figure... hey Hiro. always a pleasure to read you. pls elaborate ( = details, documents). Otherwise, I find funny this page is becoming some kind of gym for every phantasy or commonplace about something called "jews". Most websites DIRECTLY relate to Israel and Judaism this days are full of reports about a rebirth of antisemitism. I find funny that here (where the reference is limited to specific individuals in the company) we have some free-wheeling display of phantasies, juvenile challenges, etc. It is the "enthomologic" kind of veiled antisemitism. Will be interesting to see if some more pointed answers by admiral will beat the beast out of the bush, so to speak.Nothing personal, Hiro: you just came up with your reference at the wrong moment, I think. so: please elaborate, show me it is real historical curiosity. Hiro 11/20/00 10:25 AM RE: I don't This is a very logical story. Jesus asked his 12Apostles that they must do missionary work all over the world.So the went to not only west (europe), also south, north & east. Some grupe went to Egipt (do you know "Copt"). Some group go to Indie. One apostle died in Indie, his followers went to Japan through Philippine. econophysics and anticapitalist libartarianswebmaster info@consilia.com 12/13/00 11:21 AM econophysics and anticapitalist "libartarians" some more notes about "econophysics" and its political premises, may be found in the chatline transcript file, at pages 280-290. Unfortunately, it's in italian language. But some mdern latin won't do you any serious harm, after all that "greek" when discussing option trading... Econophysics and socialism ozy miani@consilia.com 11/21/00 9:22 PM Econophysics and socialism I already discussed here (and will discuss further) some political implications of so-called "econophysics". I stated that the Fractal-Fraternity shares some basic epysthemological premises which remind me of Faggish Fraternity Pro-Soviet Brit Mathematicians of the first half of the century.Well, it happens that the amoeba-boys sometimes slip, and explicitly talk about the financial markets in terms that Ralph Nader would agree with.Here's the review, published on "econphysics" webiste, of a book about financial markets our readers know well because we discussed it at lenght three years ago: "F.I.A.S.C.O". Here is the review, and my comment. Should the reviewer answer, I will publish here the reply. Comments welcome. ### REVIEW ###Reviewer: Joe McCauley A fascinating and, at times, challenging book, written in the spirit of 'Liar's Poker' but with more detail. Partnoy describes the damaging and borderline criminal practices of derivatives salesmen and the huge investment banks that drive their performance. One would think that the people described in this book couldn't have agreed more with Willie Horton; it's just that poor old down and out Willie was limited to the crude use of a pistol while these well-paid gents had derivatives as their weapons! Indeed, America will likely institute hand-gun control before it passes the necessary laws regulating derivative trading. Book Description FIASCO is the shocking story of one man's education in the jungles of Wall Street. As a young derivatives salesman at Morgan Stanley, Frank Partnoy learned to buy and sell billions of dollars worth of securities that were so complex many traders themselves didn't understand them. In his behind-the-scenes look at the trading floor and the offices of one of the world's top investment firms, Partnoy recounts the macho attitudes and fiercely competitive ploys of his office mates. And he takes us to the annual drunken skeet-shooting competition, FIASCO, where he and his colleagues sharpen the killer instincts they are encouraged to use against their competitiors, their clients, and each other. FIASCO is the first book to take on the derivatves trading industry--the most highly charged and risky sector of the stock market. More importantly, it is a blistering indictment of the largely unregulated market in derivatives and serves as a warning to unwary investors about real fiascos, which have cost billions of dollars. Synopsis In this behind-the-scenes look at one of the world's top Wall Street investment firms, Partnoy recounts his experience during the annual drunken skeet-shooting competition where he and his colleagues sharpen the killer instincts they're encouraged to use against competitors, clients, and each other. ISBN: 0140278796Title: F.I.A.S.C.O. : The Inside Story of a Wall Street TraderAuthor: Frank Partnoy Published: February 1999### OZY'S COMMENT ###COMMENTS Written by miani@consilia.com the November 21 2000 :Partnoy's book (dated 1997, not 1999...) is enjoyable (albeit less than the cruel "Liar's poker" by M. Lewis and "Bombardiers" by Po Bronson). But I was deeply disappointed by some terms in Your review. "A blistering indictment of the largely unregulated market in derivatives"? If something doesn't persuade me in econophysics, it's some cultural references to sociology and cheap psychology (see your paper "what's love to do with it?") who give your papers a slightly anticapitalist undertone. They are in complete opposition to understanding of financial markets. "FIASCO" is about lies, paranoia, cheating with other people's money, theft, ignorance: it is not about "regulation" of markets. The goons that Partnoy describers would have cheated with the simplest trade. Their problem is ethics, not complex financial engineering. I think that scientists dealing with financial markets have nothing to gain from a witch hunt against "complexity of financial instruments". And, well, in Your review you just BORROWED terms which are usually associated with that kind of witch hunt. Careful: should that kind of witch hunt spread and succeed, there would not be any "complexity" nor volatility left to analyze. Nor the money to buy the books about it. Thanks for you website: nice intellectual gym.Hiro 11/22/00 12:03 AM RE: Econophysics and socialism FIASCO is a verz funny book. It is a plenty of black jokes.Auther worked at Japanese branch. If you read this passage of Japan you can understand that how Japenese bankers are FIASCO.Guest2 11/22/00 12:55 AM RE: Econophysics and socialism Where's his website (the intellectual gym)?webmaster info@consilia.com 11/22/00 10:43 AM RE: RE: Econophysics and socialism http://www.unifr.ch/econophysics/articoli/wwelcome.htmlERAP EURF er whatever stefano lavinio steffie@bloomberg.net 01/21/01 11:46 PM ERAP, EURF... er.. whatever for your education!yes i know, still it's amusing and bating material better than the dead white frogellactuals you generally brandish;-) . been to bizzy to play of late , but will return soon when markets become idiotically boring again and i will need to be amused as delusion and popular madness return to the boring status quo ante.Sinulog becomes a mix of politics and religion1/21/1 10:9 (New York)Sinulog becomes a mix of politics and religionBy Mozart A.T. PastranoJanuary 22, 2001CEBU is most itself as queen city of the South at this time of year when itcelebrates the Sinulog, a mardi gras in honor of the Santo Niño. Everyone isfamiliar with the story: how Magellan gifted Queen Juana of Cebu with a statueof the Child Jesus when she was baptized a Catholic, how the statue wasenshrined in a church, how after a fire that razed the church the statue wasfound unscathed, albeit blackened by soot.Cebuanos consider this a singular miracle, and from thenceforth they veneratedthe icon with unbelievable zeal. Some fun-loving Cebuanos 20 years ago cookedup some street-dancing hoopla at Colon, said to be the oldest street in Cebu,if not the entire country. They called it "Sinulog," after the Bisaya word for"celebration." The word also denotes the movement and rhythm of bare feet usedin the street-dancing.The hoopla got Cebuanos hooked, and the Sinulog became a yearly occasion forrevelry during the feast of the Santo Niño---on the third Sunday of January.This year, the Sinulog took on an extraordinarily festive tone as Cebuanos woreblack in solidarity with the anti-Erap protest movement. The place to go to wasthe rotunda at Fuente Osmeña, which drew in an endless stream of rallyists evenas cars passing by honked the Erap Resign honk. Text messages had everyone ontenterhooks, amused, angry, and amazed at the sheer banality of it all.Non-stop partyAt the traditional fluvial parade on Saturday morning, which passed through thechannel separating Cebu and Mactan islands, one vessel gaily decorated withbuntings and balloons flouted a streamer which carried the Santo Niño greeting,"Pit Senyor!," in tandem with "Erap Resign!" Talk about church and staterelations.A funny sidelight: a dinghy carrying the Emergency Rescue Unit Force---with itsinitials emblazoned on the side---tickled bystanders at the pier, who screamedmerrily, "ERUF resign!"When Malacañang was vacated and a new government sworn into office, the Sinulogfestivities became one grand celebration of people power. And if you don't knowit yet, Cebuanos know how to party!There was the non-stop street fever at Fuente Osmeña, the stream of devoteesduring the Santo Niño procession at the city's old walkways on Saturdayafternoon and the prayers of thanksgiving at the neighboring sanctums of theSanto Niño Basilica and the Cebu Cathedral.By nightfall, it was party time. Everyone trooped to The Village, the new hubof bars and bistros within the Cebu Civic and Trade Center. It boasted suchtony must-visits as Club Fuel, Soap and Yo! Latino---all three very Malate,very dress-down hot and hip.The partying peaked on Sunday afternoon, the main Sinulog parade. Streetdancingcontingents from all over the country had us giddy with all the pomp andpageantry. By this time, politics gave way to spiritual high---as all of Cebuvenerated the Santo Niño on the streets of the country's oldest city.This intermingling of politics and religion indeed makes for a powerful blast,and this Cebuanos acknowledged as they partied all weekend.For more news from the Philippine Daily Inquirer, type {PDIQ }For the Philippine Daily Inquirer Website, type {INQR }Provider ID: 00000178-0- Jan/21/2001 15:09 GMT admiral macau@consilia.com 01/22/01 3:18 PM exit ERAP enter E.R.U.F., C.E.B.U. (or is it M.A.S.H.)? of course, all that pagan exhultance owed nothing to the simple fact that Cebu governor is a friend of miss Macapagal? ozy miani@consilia.com 01/22/01 12:23 AM they like to make it easy... eruf! Look: PSE composite index is going through the eroof! A New Age is coming to Flips.It seems Philipines is the last place on earth where a Clintonite can score a success... all american intellos who promised they would emigrate should Dubya win, could move to Manila.estrada admiral macau@consilia.com 01/17/01 11:38 PM estrada I told you to keep Estrada. Film Before Sunrise Watch this movie Kris! Guest875 tweetylex@netzero.com 12/18/00 10:04 AM Film: Before Sunrise. Watch this movie Kris! Absolute magic! Preppmaster 12/18/00 5:20 PM RE: Film: Before Sunrise. Watch this movie Kris! receipe to get laid! (falling asleep)ozy miani@consilia.com 12/18/00 9:25 PM 2+2=4 a) the film must be seen "before the sunrise"b) the film is "a recipe to get laid" (sleeping in the act)c) jj is inviting kris to the movieswhat will happen in the dark, in the back rows of the theater?ozy miani@consilia.com 12/18/00 1:17 PM why? why? what's "magic" in the movie? what's beautiful, and/or meaningful? why is it worth the money and the time? why? are you a relative of the producer? Financials Raman 01/19/01 11:20 AM Financials Merrill Lynchsays financials are a good sector to buy at the moment (excluding insurance)any views on thisAXP and BK look good but MER & JPM look short term overvaluedany view I'm thinking of a long/ short strategy here raman 01/19/01 2:31 PM RE: Financials I'll stick to the long/ short strategyozy miani@consilia.com 01/19/01 1:48 PM Financials financials still under the magic (positive) spell of the "Greenspan put". wait for US fiscal policy to shift into high gear, that will change perceptions about rates. Still, no shorts until spxf breaks 158/155 (sell heavy after 151) frx macro consilia analyst@consilia.com 01/17/01 2:58 PM frx / macro oops. gold didn't move, usd/jpy slowing (see China comments yesterday), yen/dem and usd/dem slowed and are now approaching tech alerts (yen/dem 178, 181/183 alert, trouble at 185/188; usd/dem 2.08, alert at 2.11, trouble at 2.15/2.18). No need to panic until usd/jpy breaks 115, but time to look at moves. ozy miani@consilia.com 01/18/01 10:51 AM yen boy, am I reading and hearing load of BS this morning about yen...only thing that matters is the following: usd and jpy have no peg to any real economic reference. hence --> wrong level of both by reference to gold (including its economic and policy meaning) ---> during all of the "Asian" crisis, moves of the "odd pair" destabilized peripheral currencies and euro (this last, with eurolander's approval); swings in BOTH directions have political and economic limits (euro crisis on one side, reply of "asian" crisis on the other) ---> upmove of usd/jpy was just a SIGNAL, a vague indicator of a POSSIBILE reflation of usd vs gold; ---> THIS was what made yen start its fall in last months. If THIS is the underlying event in the jpy move, it may HELP to stabilize in real term both peripherals and euro etc etc; BUT IF this deep economic and policy meaning of the usd/jpy move is not there, this is only the Nth SWING of jPy ---> in this last case, what matters are its external limits. At 120, jpy is beginning to push the envelope on china's side and on asian peripheral's side, and is forcing Bond rates down with NO real reflation.All this considered (and much more, including oil), the parade of "concerned" and "not concerned" japanese officers is pathetic.ozy miani@consilia.com 01/18/01 11:40 AM yen / O'Neill oh, btw: if that's the scenario, go figure what you can do of the famous "O'Neill" words. what's a strong dollar? by reference to what? (see summer's "strong dollar" in last year: it struggled one year and a half to rise against yen, it fell back vs euro with no notable political opposition. Then?) ozy miani@consilia.com 01/17/01 5:17 PM Gold, ECB and Dubya Hu Hu. Now, your bets on the following: politics/policy will decide about this bounce/abort of the "yen reflation" move; now or on 2.15/2.18 185/188 bounce? IMHO, it would be ECB on bounce, but FED on gold fall now. ozy miani@consilia.com 01/17/01 5:20 PM Gold, ECB and Dubya / II did I say "FED"? Well: who cares about FED, if just Dubya does the right thing?frx tech igor feldman@consilia.com 01/22/01 12:31 AM frx tech confirm alert on "Y node". ready to hedge l/t shorts on joy/eur and usd/eur. and ready for a show on peripherals+emerging igor feldman@consilia.com 01/23/01 11:07 AM frx tech + macro alert not yet over, cools down but keep eyes on yen/eur and usd/eur. yen/dem btw 178/175 is till stalled, usd/dem abv 205/203 not yet confirming macro bearish scenario. on the positive side (ie: downside for Y and $/eur): gold trying to overcome 266/268, usd/jpy not accelerating fall under 116, gbp/jpy holding, cable holding to 1.47. still short yen and usd, long eur and chf, eyes wide open. igor feldman@consilia.com 01/24/01 5:42 PM frx tech + macro nice match. usd/eur hits alerts (announcing yen/eur bounce), yen/eur approaches them, and - ta-da! - you get lindsey talking yen down, eurotics talking euro up. yellow alert though. igor feldman@consilia.com 01/25/01 11:15 AM frx tech ok. both usd/eur and yen/eur in alert, gold failed at 266: time to take care of positions. usd/jpy still not weak, cable not dramatic, gold above 263. use a s/t $/E and Y/E otm call to hedge shorts. igor feldman@consilia.com 01/25/01 12:36 AM frx tech getting better by the hour... gbp/eur joins the club, gbp/jpy nears alerts, and usd/joy brushes pre-alerts. happyness is a l/t usd/eur and yen/eur short, and a n/t hedge on it frx techs igor feldman@consilia.com 01/11/01 6:57 PM frx techs both jpy/dem and usd/dem are approaching key levels (2.03 dem, 175 jpy), with overxtended usd/jpy and disappointing gold. Make or break level for sharp yen/dem and usd/dem downside. stay short l/t, n/t a gold break down or usd/jpy retrace is a danger signal. relaxed, very relaxed stops. ozy miani@consilia.com 01/11/01 7:00 PM the other side of the coin the other side of the coin is that without a gold rally vs usd and jpy, current usd/eur fall is just eur deflation, instead of full, political dollar reflation. this risks: 1) euro-chocking; 2) no real effect from FED cuts; 3) joy fall becoming just another asian slump ---> china capsizing in months ozy miani@consilia.com 01/11/01 7:03 PM ... then ... then, both the "key levels" [tech = b-shit] signaled by Iggy-4-eyes, and the "relaxed stops", will need POLITICAL intervention not to abort the "usd/jpy ---> jpy/eur" maneuver C-Banks started last summer. Either a fillip here, or defense on bounce to avoid stops.ozy miani@consilia.com 01/11/01 7:16 PM ... then again then again all the fuss about FED means something only if coupled with political intervention (including US tax cut) ozy miani@consilia.com 01/11/01 7:19 PM in the end ... in the end it was not a bad idea, much much time ago to monitor politics/policy/currencies/and commodities like THAT was the problem with the monetary side of "new economy".Oh, poor Goldilocks... the bear got youGroovejet by Spiller J.J. Hemlock 11/13/00 9:44 AM Groovejet - by Spiller Holding you closer It's time that I told you Everything's going to be fine Know that you're leaving And try to belive it Take me one step at a time If this ain't love Why does it feel so good? If this ain't love Why does it feel so good? Think of tomorrow We beg, steal or borrow To make all we can in the sun While we are moving The music is soothing Troubles we all have begun If this ain't love Why does it feel so good? If this ain't love Why does it feel so good? Preppmaster gregorybannier@hotmail.com 11/13/00 1:18 PM RE: Groovejet - by Spiller simple but smart video for this song. Think video was shut in Bangkok. Another one of these asian mega-cities. Which brings me to my point: The economic divide between Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Which country has the best aspects for the future? Your reply will be highly appreciated. admiral admiral@consilia.com 11/13/00 1:22 PM RE: RE: Groovejet - by Spiller Pls define "best aspect": financial investment, direct investment, or living in? guest44 J.J. Hemlock 11/13/00 2:18 PM Is the Admiral capable of giving an answer?? Since it's Prepmaster Bannier asking it would be the latter admiral. As he is in no capacity to make either a financial or direct investment, please assume that it is the latter of the three choices. Basically the question he asks is this: where can a fellow with a dead-end job get the most bang for his buck by the time he reaches 45 and assuming he never breaks 6 figures in annual income in US$ terms in the next 5 years. I doubt he is interested to hear about 5-year tax holidays for pioneering investments, export processing zones, or limitations on foreign ownership in specific industries.Also Admiral, you've had 2 questions thrown at you thus far. The best that you've done is answer it with another question. Perhaps we should introduce you to Ozy's best friend, the renowned author of financial prestidigitation, Stefano Lavinio. He seemed to have a similar penchant for rebutting queries with interrogatives.Just once, give us an answer for a change.admiral admiral@consilia.com 11/13/00 2:21 PM RE: Is the Admiral capable of giving an answer?? keep estrada2) philippinesguest44 11/13/00 2:28 PM RE: RE: Is the Admiral capable of giving an answer?? explain your validity of your choices.Gypped, Jewed-down, and Shanghaied!! Guest875 11/09/00 6:47 AM Gypped, Jewed-down, and Shanghaied!! I suspect the etymology of the word "gypped" is simultaneously a pejorative for Gypsies and has to do with getting screwed in a business transaction. I'm surprised that there isn't a Scottish varient of that slur considering that nation's penchant for penurious business dealings. Then too there is the term "Shanghaied," which is an obvious attack on the Shanghainese. My Basque great-uncle Ambrosio Elissalde claims one is "shangheid out of here," as he is forced to "flea." He loved puns, which I admit are tempting but occasionally painful.Also, one hears of getting "jewed-down" so often, that it puzzles me that there is no antithetical term about being "gentiled-up."Any thoughts on these pressing matters? ADMIRAL admiral@consilia.com 11/09/00 9:09 AM asia, racism and political correctness Morning Guest. Young Ozy told me you need comments about Asian geopolitics. Shoot.Hello Ozzy & Joncy KrisHopkins 11/12/00 1:51 PM Hello Ozzy & Joncy HelloThought I'd say Hi. Havent say hello before because i've been quite busy. Just before my world tour starts in January 2001, I'll have been temping at various Accounts departments across south west London. The exciting world of temping takes me to Air Malta's offices tomorrow for 3 whole fun packed days. Woo Hoo!! As that guy out of Boyzone sings: " Life is a rollercoaster, just got to ride it! "Kris ozy miani@consilia.com 11/12/00 4:43 PM RE: Hello Ozzy & Joncy and you think it's nice to step in, to sing a serenade for your girl, and NOT to leave your mail address? you must've spent too much time with REALLY primitive people in the last months, krisozy miani@consilia.com 11/12/00 4:45 PM RE: RE: Hello Ozzy & Joncy this shows how stupid I am. you DID leave the address, but in the posting for china girl, not in the one for me and juan carlosHi Ozy & everyone Hiro hik@bloomberg.net 11/15/00 10:19 AM Hi Ozy & everyone Hi Ozy & everyone Hiro 11/15/00 4:33 PM RE: Hi Ozy & everyone Who is Mr. guest 44, prepmaster!ozy miani@consilia.com 11/15/00 11:12 AM RE: Hi Ozy & everyone hi hiro. how's life? veronica suggests we display girl photos on our pages, but we chose to make it a "written" website. can you access the chatline or do you have java firewalls in your bank?Nobody deedimeriak@hotmail.com 11/17/00 1:35 PM RE: RE: Hi Ozy & everyone Oh! Ozy speaks about Jawa firewalls...I don't just talk nonsense or to "sfrecare" then....ahh...really feel relieved now....Hiro 11/15/00 4:36 PM RE: RE: Hi Ozy & everyone sob sob sob, I can't accsess the chatline.11/15/00 11:22 AM RE: RE: Hi Ozy & everyone hi hiro, ozywell unfortunately i can't acces the java chat at work due to the firewall. i'll continue with the msg. board and try to come to the chat when i'm at a public net cafe.guest44 11/15/00 1:41 PM RE: RE: RE: Hi Ozy & everyone Didn't know Prague brothels had internet access Hiro.Prepmaster 11/15/00 4:12 PM RE: RE: RE: RE: Hi Ozy & everyone although hiroshi's remarks could sometimes lead to the conclusion that he might be gay. Salaries in Czeck are low, so he couldn't hire JJ anyway.Guest875 11/16/00 12:52 AM RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Hi Ozy & everyone what he could instead do is pork some sleazy german pederast like Prepmaster Cardinale Bannier, who like all swiss-germans is gay and a paedophile.Ibiza Undiscovered 2000 Anthem Groovejet by Spiller J.J. Hemlock 11/13/00 9:42 AM Ibiza Undiscovered 2000 Anthem -- Groovejet by Spiller Holding you closer It's time that I told you Everything's going to be fine Know that you're leaving And try to belive it Take me one step at a time If this ain't love Why does it feel so good? If this ain't love Why does it feel so good? Think of tomorrow We beg, steal or borrow To make all we can in the sun While we are moving The music is soothing Troubles we all have begun If this ain't love Why does it feel so good? If this ain't love Why does it feel so good? Yours is yum.. KrisHopkins krishopkins77@hotmail.com 12/15/00 9:30 PM Yours is yum.. When I forwarded the "yours is yum" email from the shores of Her Brittanic Majesty to the 3rd world shores of Manila... I was not expecting such topic to reach such learned audience as those on the Consilia Group website. May I just say that mine is also yum, and if anyone is interested in finding that out for themselves..please feel free to arrange a time to sample. Greg Bannier and Ozzy need not reply! J.J. Hemlock 12/17/00 1:27 PM RE: Yours is yum.. You didn't exclude me, Benny, or Joe Melli from your list of sperm-spittoons. Fag!Catholicism and hey Gramps, how do I get my name here? Guest875 11/07/00 10:12 PM Catholicism and hey Gramps, how do I get my name here? At the outset, Gramps, how do I sign-up for my own sobriquet here rather than this dreadfully banal "Guest875" name this dang program has inflicted on me?Ok, to the matter at hand.Sources close to the Vatican (by the denying balls of Peter!) say that a homosexual conspiracy may have been uncovered. The modus operandi involved luring teenage boys with promises of pornographic pictures. However, they were shown, instead, a picture of the octogenarian Mother Teresa....nude! The resulting revulsion permanently made the female form and body unenticing to the disgusted young victims that they then turned to their own gender for coitus.Rumour has it that the investigation is being quashed by the Vatican Curia as it ponders the possible sale of said photographs as a Vatican-approved method of birth control.Another source of concern for the Vatican has been the possible use of "gay-straight alliance groups" as fronts for recruitment of young people into the homosexual lifestyle.However, my Basque 3rd cousin Jose Antonio Olondojeriz y Zubiriarte claims that these 'groups" are not in fact being used as "vehicles" for homosexual recruitment. The preferred vehicle for recruitment, he states, is actually the CHEVY BLAZER, renowned for its traction, excellent cornering characteristics, ability to withstand punishing dirt-back roads and alleys, and most importantly.....headroom.In my personal viewpoint, I cannot think of anything more useless than promoting one sexual behaviour over another. Being of Asian stock, my parents, like most of their ilk, raised me on the twin spikes of Catholic guilt and malice, and were determined in keeping me at home and virginally-married off at the age of 30. I am over 30, still not married, and my closet heterosexuality refused to lie dormant which resulted in me spending my teen years sneaking out of Catechism class and have sex with girls in my classes. I tried to live within the parametres of my parents sense of propriety, but I suspect I failed them.I would be interested to know how you feel about these subject matters and how it has affected you in a personal capacity. info melli@consilia.com 11/08/00 7:06 AM how do I get my name here? you just have to log in with your name. Guest875 11/08/00 7:20 AM RE: how do I get my name here? log-in where for the love of a two-titted whore from Tallahassee? please tell me where. veronica lake hushhush@consilia.com 11/08/00 11:54 AM what do you REALLY want to get? Dear Guest 875,I am sure that one of my collegues will soon answer to you re: cathoclism and gay conspiracies.But, in the meantime, let me tell you that, if I was Your teacher, you wouldn't have looked elsewhere for girls. I know what you cathodic bad boys want. Hi, sweetie. Catholicism and hey Gramps.doc 2001_06_21_Pro-Euro Realismozy miani@consilia.com 06/21/01 9:13 AMPro-Euro RealismIn his speech last night Chancellor Brown created a new oxymoron which is worth including in the Gallery of Immortal Contradictions."Pro-Euro Realism" definitely sounds like "Hot Ice", "Festina Lente" or "Military Intelligence".2001_06_27_?Thud McGuffin 06/27/01 7:33 AM?Hello,Surely US 30 yr. bonds are a buy here??????????? Not much else is and I need some ideas. consilia sales@consilia.com 06/27/01 10:23 AMre: professionals in deep foguhm, Sir... 1) You need ideas, have not and need to tell your clients that you have... 2) your clients pay you for having ideas and make money for them...3) ...we produce and sell ideas...4) what's the next step?This brings us to one of the basics questions: why should people who were able to make money (then have ideas), entrust it to somebody who looks for ideas on the internet? Maybe they should just read and debate their ideas and manage their money by themselves.Funny: this is one of the basic reasons why we created CONSILIA.Thanks for giving us the opportunity for this plug, thud.I dunno if you are the "Thud" from Fortis Bank, or the other "Thud" from Schroders, but I'd say the former. And in both cases the theoretical question above is legitimeozy miani@consilia.com 06/27/01 12:25 PMRE: re: professionals in deep fogYep.The basic question is the following: can you SELL ideas to others? I mean: trading ideas, industrial ideas, ideas to make money?Can you generate a logic, a strategy, then provide it to somebody who lacks ideas and strategies?I think NOT.There are no CONSUMERS of ideas, and thought cannot be delegated.People who make money (I mean: who can make money from scratch, producing goods or shipping them to the opposite emisphere, or writing a meaningful book or having your phone line working. people who create jobs for other less skilled people) have enough ideas to make the world spin.These people don't need to delegate their thought about money. They just need "sparring partners" to debate with. They will never "share" their mind. They need to meet other independent minds. Not because of need of sharing, but because INTEGRATION works, and because a dedicated researcher can gather specific knowledge and data and exchange them.But you need a thought to start a talk. You will never receive thoughts from sharing a chat. Those who don't start ideas, don't get new ideas from others. They get orders, suggestions, not ideas.Any wealth producer is a thinker by definition. Try to make money from scratch without thinking.But: is the average bond salesman, a "thinker"? Does he produce ideas? Does he move anything? Does he ever verify on the field what he says about "stagflation", how's the case of our friend Thud? And if he doesn't, how is he presumed to be able to "teach" something to somebody who DETERMINES prices and earnings by his work?Are there thinkers among bank professionals?Very few. Far less than among industrialists, or physicians.The young alan greenspan, who you people love so much (or at least loved until last year) in his semi-Randian years acknowledged that. Of course he included himself among the creators of ideas and the free-thinkers. One should ask him if he still ranks himself among them.So, why and how did ideology manage to persuade skilled engineers, who can run a operation involving thousands of people, advanced technologies, different languages and locations, that they cannot understand the global economy better than the average boiler room brat?I have one answer:it all boils down to the era when public debts made the largest chunk of financial markets.It all comes from an era when debasement of money and inflation have been so huge and so arbitrary, that economic skills and knowledge of reality meant nothing. All you needed to know, were the most recent arbitrary decisions of central bankers and finance ministers or secretaries.The following step was just a little step: believing that financial markets have a "logic" of their own, which owes nothing or very few to the classical logic and to the common sense, and needs "experts" to be understood (notice: not experts in the FACTS, but "experts" in the "logic". "People of the milieu", "breathing market knowledge"). Bullshit. Anyway, belief in the "independece" of financial industry comes from the State. This is of course evident in Euroland where 99% of bank "traders" were state (or province, or laender, or whatever) employees until last year, or last month, or still are.A trace of this shows in today's question by our dear friend Thud: when you realize you know shit, buy Treasuries.That era created so huge and irreal NOMINAL prices, that these prices detached themselves from the logic that an engineer, a chemist, a manager was accustomed to. And created a whole world of sci-fi reading. FED-worshipping, "emerging(=sinking)markets" experts who, in order to survive and GET money by other people, need to have intelligent people and producers thinking that they CAN'T manage their own money. A whole world of idiots speaking in tongues about "new mathematics" which contradict 2+2=4, "new ages" which contradict the basics of capitalist economy, and so on.Reactions against this have been scattered: demand for personal finance tools, for direct access to markets by individuals, disintermediation, all started very recently.And these first attempts are still flawed by the fact that "direct online brokers" are no more than dummy banks created by brick-and-mortar banks in order to keep clients from runnig for the door.They will run. Market will sell them information directly. what the hec: b2b will MAKE prices.The more capitalist individualism recovers from decades of oppression (including "fuzzy oppression" and brain washing), the more the pact between banks and governments, and their grip on markets will fade away.The "nasdaq bubble and crash" has been just the attempt, by banks, to rein in something which escaped their grip: the money makers's comeback. Which included an unfortunate attempt by new industries to escape the FED's grip. They will succeed, in the end.I enjoyed these two years I spent chatting with you guys in banks. I gathered lot of interesting details. And the above is, among others, my goodbye.I go back to my clients. There's a whole world of real events out there to understand and to handle, making new things out of things. And money out of them.Now, what was your question? You don't know where to put money? Well, give it back to your clients, dumbo, before you make something really stupid.But I see your first idea was to give it to the Government. That makes a nice anecdote.2001_07_01_Microsoft GE/Honeywell and deflationconsilia analyst@consilia.com 07/01/01 11:40 AMMicrosoft, GE/Honeywell and deflationA note about the Microsoft case, the GE/Honeywell case, and their relation with the global monetary scenario, is included in one report that will be available tonight for clients.Complimentary copies are available, at the company's discretion, for prospective clients. Contact sales@consilia.com2001_07_23_Genua G8 the new new new left altruism and slaughtersCONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 07/23/01 9:42 AMGenua G8: the new new new left, altruism and slaughtersA analysis of the ideological premises and consequences of the meeting/clash between bureaucrats and their sons in Genua has been included in yesterday's report to clients.Complimentary papers are available to prospective clients. Contact heidi@consilia.com.CONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 10/25/01 2:36 PMGenua G8: the new new new left, altruism and slaughters Here are some excerpts of that paper:July 21st, 2001Back to the G8, then.We already knew that good intentions kill. The question is: who is the chosen victim?It's you.First some history. In the beginning, it was G2. It happened by chance, and it was essentially a phone call about operational problems on the forex market. Within two hours, it had become the G3 in order to avoid a diplomatic incident.But even so the voting rights didn't balance, then the UK had to enter, in spite of the economic gloom which placed England somewhere near Mexico. Since they were going to discuss inter-governmental "co-ordination" of interest and exchange rates, of course they necessarily had to bring in the French, whose main activity is organising other people's lives. At that point an Italian officer threw a tantrum which would go down in history (comparable only to that which Andreotti threw in front of Kohl and Thatcher, about the Maastricht/reunification barter): they then had to find a chair to make it the G6. Canada entered instead of Korea, Australia, Spain that doesn't exist, and Scandinavia that possibly belonged to the Third World, and of course instead of OPEC which was busy elsewhere.So, for a good while they were 7. And they achieved so little that somebody began to say that it was not even worth meeting, because the Plaza and the Louvre were way out of date, and that Geronto-7 didn't at all represent the industrial world, even less its command chain.But Russia threatened it would default on its external debt, and would plunge the global markets into chaos, IF it was not invited to the summits. So, in order to resolve a serious global problem, G7 became G8. You know how it ended: new loans to the New Russia, just minutes before it defaulted anyway plunging the world markets into chaos.As you can see, G8 is some "huge and inexorably efficient machine", and a surgical "crisis solver".G8 then was born with the same stigma as hundreds of other supranational institutions: it is NOT an institution.It is the fruit of the crossbreeding of two things that politicians love to do at the expense of those who provide for them: a) horse-trading and imposing reciprocal vetoes about who is going to spend other people's money and how; b) shifting the level of decisions upwards, as "high" as possible, the further the better from direct checks by the electors (meaning: the producers); in the latter process each of them USES the others' "vetoes" and "pressures" [see point a)] as an excuse for being unaccountable for the decisions he himself has taken.This upward shift of the hub of decision-making distances each ruler from the crude arithmetic of individual and corporate votes reacting to the credit/debt of local balance sheets, and it shifts it upwards towards the heavens where enormous and abstract sums are spent for the sake of "everybody", "the world", "peoples" (not even "people" is enough any more).Obviously this mechanism works even better if, instead of VAT reduction or dirty road surfacing, the issue at stake is "abolishing hunger" or "eliminating love sickness".The more noble and abstract the Cause, the more generic the beneficiary, the LESS the fun can be spoiled by myopic bean counters, engineers, logicians or "vision-less" shop-keepers.THIS is the political drift that created institutions such as the European Commission, Reindeer's "European Group" or G8.On these premises, the best interlocutor of G8, its best partner, the people best suited for discussing plans for soaking the Ocean or for connecting all the Mongolians to the internet, are NOT the voters but the galaxy of Non-Governmental [my foot] Organisations, the Forums, the Agencies, the Committees, the Leagues, all of them strictly non-elected, and all of them strictly created by a paternalist minority which appoints itself the task of representing UNIVERSAL interests and rigorously unquestionable issues.Who is in fact going to question the nobility and legitimacy of a debate (or rather: a "CLASH"!) between "the Great" and "the representatives of the Poor" on such themes as "What Global Plan for Everybody's Wealth?".I will sure give it a try. Because this is the death of democracy, and above all the death of the bond which must tie politics to economic life and to coherent thought.Because this "upward shift" gimmick, this fiction of increasingly higher levels of political mediation, has a history, an ideology, an author, some specific beneficiaries and one enemy. And their enemy, is YOU.Let's choose a starting point at random (heh heh): Yeltsin's admission.Russia's admission to G8 was not just the fruit of the long history of cross-vetoes and wedding-guest-list dynamics which had, from the beginning, been the mechanics of Geronto-7.It was a logical progression, one coherent with the political premises of the G7 institution, and with the events which led to the farce, which happened in Genoa, where, around G8, we saw a gathering of the galaxy of the tribes of well-off-tramps, charitable dames, anti-AIDS (albeit anti-condom) priests, the no-profit multinationals dealing in whining, diets and child abuse; not to mention the highest concentration of acne, junk-degrees and technological gadgets ever displayed by a revolutionary mob.From when it started (and it IMMEDIATELY started) using monetary manoeuvres with the purpose of subjugating the economy to political horse-trading, G7 has been EVERYTHING BUT a "vanguard of global free markets" and a "political vector of capitalism".On the contrary, it has been the perfect ritual embodiment of the two most wicked anticapitalist political traditions of the West:* The European mixed economy, "market socialism", and its excruciating plethora of protocols, regulations, calendars, its castes of unelected albeit omniscient officers; a tradition whose ramifications range from Mercantilism to the nazi Highways, from Administrative Law to the Euro, from IRI to the "push to the East";* the Wilsonian altruism: i.e., the degeneration of American Puritanism; a well-meaning dirigism, whose ramifications range from the folly of Versailles to the 1929 Crash, from the debasement of the Gold Standard to the creation of thousands of agencies against Hunger, Cold and Sleep; from the invention of anti-trust to the thousand attempts to "bring peace" ending in bloody wars. It would be naive to hope that this tradition died with Clinton: and it succeeded in spreading the myth that an "isolationist" America would be a global catastrophe, when instead world history says otherwise: the best things happened when the "American experiment" flourished INSIDE, within its own specificity, being an example and a magnet for the Lafayettes and the Thatchers. The world is never so much "American" as when America minds its own business and distances herself so much from the European ideological hindrances as to become both a refuge and a reference point for the best people around the world. At that point these sometimes try to create some America at home: but MAKING it, not begging for its altruism; copying its independence, not living off her, and even less trying to create an (impossible) world were men would work like Americans and their governments would rule, tax and regulate them like French. Which is an idea that can be nurtured only by a summit of bureaucrats: as G7 is, or the various Seattle People Co-ordination Committees are.The idea of one world (obviously ruled by Europeans) which would "explain" to Americans "how to do things correctly", CREATES or at least supports American ALTRUISM, then American imperialism. The real one, not the one hallucinated by the world anticapitalists.Empire is a European idea: its American side is Wilsonism: from Wilson himself to Clinton.The idea that Third-World dictatorships, explicit or in disguise, guided by Europe and Russia, should dictate the rules for producing wealth to America while delegating her the task of creating and DEFENDING wealth, is precisely the PREMISE of imperialism. And it will obtain imperialism as a result.Zimbabwe writing the environmental regulations for California (of course through its European speaker: you know, they are poor illiterate niggas, they need "counselling"), is SURE to prepare an American policy that sooner or later will send bombers on an "humanitarian mission" somewhere in Africa.And an American President who on the contrary focuses on keeping the sailing and flying routes, and cable and satellite communication channels OPEN and SAFE, and who attaches NO meaning to the idea of spreading "human rights" (as defined by Belgium and Zimbabwe) by military force, is precisely what the "anti-imperialists" should pray for every morning, since they are so religious, IF they really are in good faith (pun intended).Or do they prefer an assault by the Marines to bring tolerance of homosexuals in Nigeria? Do they hope for an embargo to force Malaysia to stop jailing girls who kiss their boyfriend in public? Do they want naval blockades in order to allow/force their cherished Palestinian women to use birth-control devices? Or Nigerian men to use condoms against AIDS?Do anti-imperialists want American global police to enforce human rights? They better explain this. And make up their mind about this. Both before they denounce American imperialism, AND before they ask for "multinational" or "U.N." (meaning: using American money and weapons) interventionism for "good causes".Once the route to GEOPOLITICAL ALTRUISM is open, its boundaries are as blurred as its ideas.And this is where the GEOPOLITICAL and the IDEOLOGICAL side of the "G8 problem" meet.The Seattle People's fond, humanitarian, new-age, missionary slogans of generic anti-scientific "health consciousness" (heaven help you if you touch their mobiles: but they must work WITHOUT Nokia and Microsoft) belong to the ideological roots of IMPERIALISM. And the G8 bureaucrats espoused them.They belong to the real imperialism, the one that couldn't defuse WWII; the one that, one well-meaning error after another, made Hiroshima necessary in order to stop Auschwitz. The one that forced the Western democracies, in order to compensate for Munich's cowardice and the surrender to Hitler, to CO-OPT Stalin, to legitimise him and to give away half the planet to terror and misery for fifty years.The doctrines about Europe's "push to the East", Yeltsin's co-optation in the G7 and now the compliments to Putin the terrorist are the remote but linear consequences of those mistakes.Democracy is: keeping the politicians bound to ALL the ramifications and consequences of their ideas and actions. And to vote them OUT as a consequence of the IMPLICATIONS of their actions. Even the remote ones. They will quit office within one, three or five years, but you're going to pay the price of their actions for decades. You are bound to evaluate the remote consequences of what your elected officers do. They won't, most of time.The individual voter is the real "planner". It's he who must have "vision" and a "grand plan". Not his "illuminated leaders". They must be on a short leash. Philosophy is for the individual voters and taxpayers. Weekly accountability is for the Powers that Be.Long term planning and wide range strategy is a luxury (and a necessity) for those who PAY for it. If you abdicate your right/obligation of sanctioning politicians for their "abstract" ideological infatuations, if you consider their funny weekend summits about "making the world a better place" as innocuous distractions for otherwise altruistically busy great men, you will end up not being allowed to vote even against a tax on domestic garbage.And ideological affinities matter.They quickly become facts.Wilson was - like Clinton, like Agnoletto or like the most ingenuous and honest voluntary worker of some NGO - a health maniac, a clean-freak, a moralist outraged by the world's nastiness. He caused more deaths than Attila. Hitler boycotted the tobacco industry: he ordered the money to be spent, instead of on cigarettes, on public works for making the People more healthy; he began with huge funds for cancer research (and the German scientists' results were excellent), and ended up building gas chambers for the mentally ill and the lame, and finally his wicked metaphor openly exploded. But Hitler didn't start by OPPRESSING the weak, the ill: he started by fanatically HELPING them.This is why I say that the G8 was created, from its premises, precisely as it is dying today in Genoa: the meeting/clash between the "new new left" of the Seattle People and the bureaucrats' caste is a SHOW of the TRUTH of the Twentieth Century. Better: it is a show of the Twentieth Century's opposition to freedom and reason.The "difficult dialogue" between G8 officials and Seattle People is a farce: the bureaucrats of G8 are the pupils and the children of Wilson, of Maritain, Paul VI, Adorno, and back to Sorel, Renan, Hitler and Stalin.And the Seattle People are just the grandchildren of those same people. Of those same masters. The slogans about "being together" and "comprehending the Other", "love thy enemy", "communicate" for the sake of "communication", smell like Taize and Woodstock: both in Prodi's or Schroeder's speeches AND in the chants of the group of ANONYMOUSES that went from Santiago de Chile to Genoa by airplane, burning the amount in kerosene of some weeks of GDP of a Thai agricultural district, in order to "perform a mime " in front of Prodi and Schroeder. The G8 bureaucrats are only 20 years older than their counterparts. And they have already had the same parasytical career in public office that the "White Overalls" dream of (will they feel offended if I call them "White Overalls"? I presume they will, because I am using it as a "logo", a brand, as a NAME. And ANONYMITY is one of the battle cries of this PSYCHOLOGICAL COLLECTIVISM, whose ambitions reach well beyond those of the most ruthless economic collectivism).THIS is the link between Genoa's G8 and violence.It is not casual, it is not fortuitous. It is not the monopoly of "extremists" who happened by chance to be in Genoa "on the fringes", nor it is the product of "tired and nervous police officers".Violence was in the ideological premises of the Genoa meetings.Political irrationality disguised as altruism is the SOURCE of the violence of the Twentieth Century. The homicides and wars of the Twentieth century were - as never before - IDEOLOGICAL violence, which means: well meaning violence.And the CORE of the collective "good causes" is the ideological distrust of individual choices.The source of violence is where somebody decouples politics from concrete economic life of the individuals and links it to general ideas, total ideas which are "good", then unquestionable, "pure", then entitled to be IMPOSED. Better: they are so pure and abstract that they become a "collective will". Which cannot stand objections and obstacles.And that above all can't tolerate the logic of profit: which is nothing but the logic of numbers, reason and reality applied to the (limited, humanly limited) capacities of the individual: to his effort, to his life, the dreams the realisation of which is the purpose of his efforts.The logic of profit is the mathematics which links human work to the individual calculus and decouples it from the slavery to the whims of a tyrant, of a priest or of the people (and even in Genoa: people and priests, priests and people, all the time...).The logic of profit is the CONTRARY of the unlimited violence of the incalculable collective and mystical desires.INDIVIDUAL PROFIT IS THE CONTRARY OF POLITICAL HOMICIDE.It is the most extreme form in which the mind and the body of the individual prevail over the violence of "common ideas". It is the calculus that each individual performs about his own life, putting it above and beyond any possible self-immolation.No "collective will", no "spirit of the people" ever fed anybody. The "spirit of the people" has always and only KILLED.So, nurturing the illusion that collective slogans will realise themselves BECAUSE they are "right", with no relation to the constraint that reality imposes on the individual, and with no relation with the logic of profit which is implicit in the individual's effort to intervene on reality, ALREADY means affirming the prevalence of ideology over the individual. Then, in the Twentieth Century, it means AUTHORISING the murder of the individual, his sacrifice, his militant suicide, his conscription, or his IDEOLOGICALLY COMPULSORY VOLUNTARY SERVICE.The "violent people", in Genoa, were the "moderate" altruists and pacifists. The priests, the psychologists, the non-elected officials of the collective Good (among others, please hold the nonsense about the "good old communist trade unionist" as opposed the "wicked anarchist": it's as old as the Spanish Civil War and the Stalinist purges).The German "black block" anarchists are just the umpteenth generation of black dressed krauts going round Europe laying it waste: but each time, this happens after a PREVIOUS generation of moderate, sophisticated and limp-wristed French and Germans has gone round Europe laying waste to its logic and rationality: to go "beyond bourgeois thought", under the indulgent gaze of industrialists who believe they are not in question. Both Wittgenstein AND Rathenau led to Hitler: what about today?To sum it up:The producers should turn their back on the G8 carnival; and they should be outraged not only at the time and money spent on the "meeting/clash" between TWO GENERATIONS OF ANTICAPITALIST ACTIVISTS, but at the very existence of this farce. And they also should judge the politicians they elected on the basis of how much distance each of them has put between himself and the wicked and wasteful masquerade about "acknowledging the reasons of the protesters".The "protest" was not against the G8 bureaucrats. It was a protest BY the G8 bureaucrats AND the "good faith, moderate anti-globals" against YOU. Each and every one. Because of this sin of yours: that you sometimes do something which is not "in the name of everybody".The globalisation against which both Prodi and Chirac and the German anarchists and the ecologist priests are ranked, is simply what would happen to the life of six billion individuals, finally acknowledged as such, and finally freed from the slavery of a presumed "collective destiny" of passive passengers of "spaceship earth".The Twentieth Century has been dominated by the DEATH PENALTY against the CRIME of individual political thought.It's time to declare the Twentieth Century OVER.2001_07_29_Deflation meltdown risk China and funny ideas from GreenspanCONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 07/29/01 6:29 PMDeflation meltdown risk, China and funny ideas from GreenspanA series of analyses about global capital flows and the risk of the global scenario shifting towards a rapid and harsh deflation (from the current multi-year slow deflation) will be attached to market reports to clients, starting tonight. The role of China will be widely discussed.The first instalment includes a review of Bart Greenspan's recent comments on Bonds.Complimentary copies are available, at the firm's discretion, to prospective clients. Mail heidi@consilia.com.2001_07_30_Letter from PragueHiro hik@bloomberg.net 07/30/01 7:17 AMLetter from Prague=Cool summer= I made one day trip to Nymburk, where is a near Prague, last Saturday. It was a quite cool. The Got gave me sunny day all day long. When I arrived Nymburk, I thought I'm in the movie screen, 'cause there are historical old town. Czech writer Bohumil Hrabal was from this town. I love one of his films, which theme is good old days between WWI & WWII of this town.First of all I visited the church, which is The Gothic brick style. I was impressed with that I was able to pray the church, in which he also prayed. When I walked around the center of this town, I had an illusion that I tripped the beginning of 19 century.And then I went to a field, where is the outside of this town. There are full of sunflowers as far as I can see. If I went to there with young cute girl,,, unfortunately I was alone. NO, I enjoyed this place with bees, butterflies and so on. Especially birds sang a cheerful song for me. For a while I listened their concert in the shade of sunflowers.Regrettably thing time ran very first. Good-bye Nymburk, some day I will be there once more. Many thank the God!30.07.2001Written by Hiro.ozy miani@consilia.com 07/31/01 10:27 AMAnswer to IroshiHi Hiro.God listened to you. And spoke to me on your behalf.I am on holidays near Venice. I saw your posting. I met a beautiful Czech girl here. Definitely glamorous. She's here alone. She'll be back in Prague soon. She studies Japanese, wants to become a tour operator. She needs a Japanese-speaking friend to travel with her all over central Europe and discuss with her in Japanese the beauties and the monuments of Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Gruessing etc etc. She's already found a Japanese-speaking archaeologist in Prague, and they will begin their travels (a long series of weekens travels) in a couple of days. But the guy is 72 years old, and after I showed her your previous postings and told her what a lovely guy you are (and that you have the huge sexual energy of a man who didn't fuck in the past 5 years), she decided to give you a chance.She needs to meet you and make arrangements ASAP (=no later than friday aug 2nd). After friday, it will be too late. If she will not have heard from you by thursday, she'll go on with her plan with the archaeologist. She has not your address, nor mine.She left this morning in a hurry (and without paying the hotel's bill). She had left me her address and phone number, scribbled in Japanese on the back of an envelope, asking me to send them to you.I did it: I mailed them by snail mail this morning, to your bank address. The mail boat sailed half an hour ago: she'll be in Venice before dusk, and by tomorrow venice post office, albeit understaffed due to holidays season, will begin to process it.Barring an unexpected venice post office strike (protest against koizumi and globalization, e.g.), you should be able to finally find a companion.Don't thank me. It's a pleasure to help a friend in getting a life.I owed you, after the nice auto-answering message you left on your e-mail during your vacations, telling me to "remember to work hard" during your leave.Your Sincerely,OzyHiro hik@bloomberg.net 08/02/01 9:59 AMRE: Answer to IroshiGe!ozy miani@consilia.com 08/02/01 2:42 PMgoing postalso? did you meet her? are you leaving for the weekend? are you planning to travel Mittel-Europa together? are you going to marry?let me know.oh, I forgot: did you like the postcard I included in the envelope? she's beautiful too, isn't she?Hiro 08/30/01 12:35 PMRE: going postalno-one contact to me!ozy miani@consilia.com 08/30/01 2:19 PMhow unfortunate...didn't she? really?did you wait for her letter? did you receive her letter before aug 2nd?no?maybe Venice post office held the letter [next time, mail it through "Consignia"].Anyway, she must have left for her tour of Central Europe on aug 3rd with her old, wrinkled and shriveled Pigmalion.That's unfortunate... so a sexy girl...You will be luckier next summer, Hiro. If masturbation won't have made you blind and idiot by then.2001_08_06_Argentina Japan CinaConsilia sales@consilia.com 08/06/01 9:18 AMArgentina, Japan, CinaFurther research on politics and monetary policy in these three crucial crisis points (and on the related flows) has been included in a report on forex and markets which was sent yesterday to clients. Complimentary copies are available to prospective clients. E-mail to: heidi@consilia.com.2001_08_07_Signing off....Thud Mcguffin 08/07/01 5:07 AMSigning off....And so, dear friends, I am gone,Left alone to pull my dong."No longer needed" is what they told me,But I'm working elsewhere heheheheozy miani@consilia.com 08/07/01 8:46 AMRE: Signing off....most notable: he didn't "sign" at all.guess if this contributed to the layoff (as in: "who the heck is this guy on the payroll? never heard him. fire the loser")Anyway: another success story. QED.Next.2001_08_09_lottomatica 4ozy miani@consilia.com 08/09/01 2:21 PMlottomatica / 4with reference to the lottomatica/gtech hedge proposed by a visitor on may 11th, pls check mkt prices.* avoiding to buy ltm (my recommend) made a nice holiday while watching ltm stumbling then boucing then going nowhere;* selling ltm vs BUYING gtech (OH! the "proforma fundamentals"!) made a nice... er... what's that? 14% loss? yep, 14%. In two months. Good, very good.Next.stefano lavinio 08/10/01 10:07 PMRE: lottomatica / 4tsk tsk tsk.i check back here after a long absence. my last post in this august msgboard was i think precisely on the difference between the government as a soveregin ( as the republic of italy) and its agent ( a person who runs a service or function, say a lottery, under a govn't grant on behalf of the same sovereign) in the context of , guess what, ... yess ole lottomatica. and what do i find? this!!!!! any how to facts . measuring the position the sloppy and self serving way you did in your comment is meaningless. before stock borrowing costs, slipppage and the like the position would have LOST >>>28.63%+<<<< to date. So much, much worse. can't explain the large difference? sorry, do your own homework, CORRECTELY.conclusion:1) trade ideas you get for free are worthless and so are a lot of trade ideas you pay for , especially if produced by fuzzy thinkers.2)the productive exchange of ideas is a way good way for both parties to learn. the exhange of ideas to prove the brilliance of one person at the expense of all others at present is patented by n. korea and zimbabwe 3) in comparing trade ideas to the market after the fact timing is every thing ( i.e where do you draw start and stop dates for analysis)3) facts are always more powerful than insuinuations4) after the fact we are always ranked in the top percentile of mensa5) unlike art which is subjective, in finace one can only effectively critisise what one objectively understands (like pairs trades). don't believe me? try telling the floor broker on the cme that you want to get kinda short the euro and smidgen long the yen over a 3-6 month horizon (this is an illustration not a recomendation) and listen to his honest appreciation of you and a suggested destination for your next trip. oh and on the subject did i actually suggest the position? well yes and no. i said given the relative difference in fundamentals (gtech being and established company with a growing franchise, while ltm is an ipo with a shrinking franchise) a pairs trade might be interesting.most fools know you never, ever, ever buy an overvalued or over bought stock for the long side of a pairs trade (would an rsi of 84+ qualify as an underbought stock?) and stay rich very long.but thank you any how for pointing out that original ideas, are often wortheless and wrong. so? my regards to shelob ( see lord of the rings by jrr tolkien )ozy miani@consilia.com 08/11/01 8:36 AMrespectsorry, I am so dumb that I hadn't understood till now that "fuck all the abstract bullshit about taxes, just tell in plain english that gtek is a buy" was a genuine offer of freely "experimenting" the trade of ideas.I should have realised that your comments were friendly, well-meaning, ironic and metodologically accurate (albeit - as it often happens when trading - they didn't generate a certitude of profit. But those who trade only on certitudes have few chances of trading, after all. What matters is that you cut your losses: for exemple: when you trade on a 14%-loss-making idea, cut it quickly when your losses reach 28%, before they expand to 14%). I was dumb. I am the only guy on the planet who is able to look dumb AFTER-the-fact. I have a DUMB esprit d'escalier. Boy am I dumb.Worse: I am dumb AND paranoid. I should trust people more. I am sorry I understated your comments: I will take your comments more seriously and in a spirit of academic and professional brotherhood.This will happen soon. Pretty soon. Stay tuned.Especially concerning Fantasy novels, yen trading and doing my homework.2001_08_12_HP LOVECRAFT A NAZIMAOIST ACTIVISTozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 8:51 AMH.P. LOVECRAFT: A NAZI-MAOIST ACTIVISThave ben told to do my homework.I did. Worse: I did my summer homework (have always done it all in the second sunday of August. Afternoon).I took a suggestion seriously, followed an advice, bought all of H P Lovecraft's works, read them last week. Homework done. Now I can get back to novelists and thinkers and markets and beach. Progressive goons, I left in the school.ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 8:53 AM* Who cares about Lovecraft?Who cares about Lovecraft? Does he write about money? Or ideas? Or science? Love? Is he entertaining? So what?During a casual chat on this website, a few months ago, I was recommended to read H.P. Lovecraft, who was touted to me as a profound thinker (with specific reference to the scientific and epistemological field). Until then I had read only a couple of stories by Lovecraft, and they had been enough to bore me to death, and to make me think that he belonged to the worst side of ideology, disguised as comic-book-quality sci-fi stories. And that's what I said to our distinguished guest in chat (see chat transcript at http://www.consiliagroup.com/chatlog.pdf, pages 126/127), who was the usual representative of the "wannabe-rocket-scientist" sector of the financial industry.I was recently reminded of Lovecraft when the former assistant of Bank of Italy's Past-Governor Baffi [speaking of Elder Ones, heh heh] published an essay about Lovecraft, in which he links him to modern (and post-modern) anti-modern ideology.Shortly after that, the book by that erudite and whiny economist received an enthusiastic review together with a collection of Lovecraft's essays and with a trés post-modern book about Lovecraft written by a Belgian goon (again, a short-novelist turned sociologist and pretending to have a scientific background, Michel Houellebeck). The essay included imbecilities about both economics and philosophy, which were important enough to make me want to better understand both Lovecraft and his devote followers. Over the past few weeks I have read most of Lovecraft's works, and some essays about him, and here are my first margin notes. ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 8:56 AM* First margin notesTo summarise it all: Lovecraft is another nice piece of old, nasty anti-rationalist, anticapitalist and antiscientific ideology smuggled through vaguely "new science" references. He fits well into the mainstream of anti-modern ideology, which replaces the left's and the new-left's class warfare with some kind of "libArtarian" rhetoric (meaning: a lot of Heraclitus plus the German part of Nietzsche; appreciation for the comforts that technology brings, while continuing the intellectual opposition to the philosophical premises of capitalism and the Enlightenment).ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 8:58 AM* The storiesIn detail, and starting with the literary side:Lovecraft stories are unbelievably tedious. They are made up of few, recurring metaphors and boring repetition of patterns.Lovecraft's novels go like this [not the "average" Lovecraft novel. Not "most of them". ALL. No exception. No variations].A) one guy - which is a teacher or a student or some kind of savant in "soft" sciences [folk anthropologist, or specialist in archive-dust-statistics, antiquarian, etc.], goes to an almost deserted place (the Pole, or some New England spot 30 minutes from the nearest gas station] where a strange ("eldritch", "queer") thing happened one month or 200 million years before.B) The "event" is in most cases banal albeit ominous (a tomato turning blue - or better a strange yellow-bluish shadow -; a hotel janitor looking like tuna fish). But it will often include vague references to science: from the best entrenched XIX century tradition (palaeontology, mineralogy) to the most recent scientific fads: a house will have a "non-Euclidean" chimney, a secondary character will make passing references to Einstein or Heisenberg, mountain tops [Marie beware!] will form "strange repetitive patterns, similar but on different scales". Since fractals where formalised only in Arthur C. Clarke's times, I was at least spared fractals while reading Lovecraft. There's plenty of "snowflakes", though, and a lot of crystals, clouds, spirals and whirlwinds. This way the average fractal-addicted screen-saver-staring nerd will feel at home in Lovecraftland. Plus the usual salad of "fourth" and "fifth dimension", "parallel universe", and, of course: chaos. Cosmic, physical and metaphysical chaos.C) Chaos is necessary to the story, because: the protagonist/narrator slowly discovers that the "event" is the "sign" of the fact that humanity [reality, the cosmos, Polynesia, his family's history, the Library of Providence-at-Sea University] is doomed because it is controlled by a superior, non-terrestrial, eternal, infinitely malevolent, beastly, cannibalistic, collective mind.D) at this point the protagonist/narrator spends some time and effort stopping for a while one of the occasional manifestations of this absolute power, but its fundamental dominance cannot be stopped because it is the true creator of reality, and it pre-existed and will survive to mankind, reason, logic, the five senses, Her Majesty's Customs and Excises and even Alan Greenspan.e) the protagonist/narrator finally dies, or more often goes mad, or plans suicide, or eats his cousin.End of the novel.There are no other relevant characters, strictly no women, no dramatisation, no events involving transformation or movement of objects according to physical laws, except ONE bus trip, one plane landing and ONE exceptional occurrence of the cooking of an egg (over more or less 2000 pages). Everything else happens by hallucination or by magical will of extraterrestrial demons. Everything: the opening of a window, rain, sunset, tuna-fishing, sculpture, plumbing, you name it.This routine substitutes for the plot.* the style and the ideasAs far as style is concerned, there is a rigid, recurring fixed, planned, theorised set of formulas. Which make Lovecraft's writing definitely flat, but at the same time carry most of the philosophical meaning of his work. Which is huge, and hateful, as it often happens to people who pretend not to share any philosophical idea. These formulas are:0) No plot other than the gradual (=pedagogic) discovery of a mysterious, hidden, static and pre-existing truth by one character (we'll later see that he is ONE but he is also no individual. Funniest of all: the real protagonist, the Elder Ones, is NAMED "One" but exists only as a collective).The main character in Lovecraft's stories doesn't ever DO anything: occasionally he will kill somebody (or eat him), but most of the time the only business or art in which Lovecraft's human characters are involved in is: GOING MAD; 1) "Horror", "terror"; "terror", "horror"; "undefinable terror" and "unthinkable horror"; "horrific unspeakable" and "terror with no name"; no metaphor, no synonyms, no images: the flat statement of [zzz] "horror" (oh: and "terror", too). As if a romantic novel used the word "love" or "passion" on every second line: after two pages, you would be fantasising about perpetual chastity. 2) The "unspeakable", "undefinable", "unnameable", that which "can't be described"; see above as for the literary monotony and the lack of development; see later for the philosophical implications;3) "I finally realised" or "I suddenly understood something that is better not known".And the guy will never tell what it is! He will never name the thing ("name" in real terms. Calling it "Zhulhuhtathothep" is not naming).Ok, ok, it is a "smart" artifice to make the reader imagine the worst (the "undescribable, the unnameable", etc. etc.): but what about using it all the time? Always that and only that? in all the stories, without any exception? Each time, the narrator/protagonist "discovers" something huge, and of capital importance for the entire mankind; and each time the reader (worse: the writer) "better not know it"? Suspect: he has no way of telling what "it" is, not because the author has "too much" of a "feverish" imagination, but because he has none. He lacks "imagination" because his "imagination" is really escape from mind (not a great way to create ideas and things). The refusal to create is indeed one of Lovecraft's explicit premises: the author doesn't really imagine anything: he dreams his stories: one hell of a devolution of responsibility to "another" mind, of which the author is the servant and the mere instrument ("master" mind versus "servant" mind: here is the Platonism of European Futurism, of Dada, of "automatic writing", etc. etc.: the various but uniform imbecilities of the "golden era of arts and culture between the World Wars"). On the same tune: 4) "Nobody put two and two together, nobody connected the dots, nobody could combine the different strands of the analysis, but - if somebody had done it - he would've gone crazy". Translation: the "unknowable" and the "unspeakable" "can be known through the mystic experience of madness". "It exists a superior form of knowledge, whose object is the unspeakable, and whose instrument is madness". But Lovecraft will not simply tell you "I am a mystic, I am a Sacred Fool, I pretend to know secret things which are beyond reason": he will feign to be a sceptic, to be scientific-minded and a "true materialist" (he is really: a rigid mechanicist and determinist; but mechanicism is metaphysics, not science). He will pretend he is not just touting some form of shamanism. He often speaks of "gathering data", of "putting two and two together". He wants you to know that he is a "modern" man. And if you cannot follow his absurd "reasoning", it's your fault because you just can't "connect the dots". Funny enough: if you are a mind usually capable of connecting the dots, and if you are so pedantic as to ask where the "dots" are in any of his stories, you will be answered that "whoever tried to connect the dots went crazy". This is the kind of intellectual gimmick suited to a clever, spoiled, 16-year-old bluffer, a fraternity enfant-prodige on his way to a popularity peak at age 17, a writer's block at 18 and a long career as the assistant to a third-rank real estate salesman in Podunk in the following decades. (Of course, he could always sweeten his frustration and boredom by cultivating paranoia about Podunk's sewers really being the home of omnipotent demons fresh off their spaceboat from Mars). [Speaking of Podunk and of real estate: if Lovecraft's world is "genius" and "visionary perception", please please please give me back "Babbit". I'd rather settle for the thoughtless naturalism of Babbit's directionless anguish. Sinclair Lewis at least willy-nilly selects faces, names, sentences and provides me with "observation" material: he will let my mind to exercise thought and judgement. Babbit is open to thought. Lovecraft's stories are closed. Contrary to another bromide from his devout "critics"]. Lovecraft is in fact the translation into images of a stale philosophy. That is where he succeeds in being a bad novelist, but at least a good propaganda officer: which is the real accomplishment of his life.What philosophy is it?ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 9:02 AM* Smuggled philosophyLovecraft is: somebody who learned Plato through comic books, the "spirit of the times" and lazy teachers. His thoughts presume to be "purely" (I'd say: "flatly") perceptual, ideology-neutral, but in fact they are a graffiti of ideology. Isn't it cheap "Plato-cliffnotesfordummies" (something like the Nietzsche-for-Soldiers of Nazi memory), to go on for two decades writing about "another reality", "otherworldly", which "is not perceptible" through earthly, human, knowledge? And to rant about this knowledge belonging to "pre-human Gods" who speak in tongues or through hieroglyphs? Gods who interfere with human minds only through priests (demons, Nyarlathoteps, you name them), or through dreams, intoxication or mystic experiences? Isn't this the oldest and cheapest way of bankrupting reason in the history of the Western thought: i.e., Plato's creation of a world forever beyond this world as a model for this world (as later updated in anti-enlightenment form by Kant and his followers)?Another Platonic "stylistic" reference, and one that is important for modern Platonism, is the pseudo-monologue form of Lovecraft's stories. In fact, it applies the model of "interior dialogue" which is the XX Century, intimist, psychotherapeutic form of the Platonic dialogue (a model of reasoning which subjugates thought to "the Other", i.e.: structurally collectivises thought, through the separation between a "slave" and a "master" mind: where the slave is, of course, omniscient albeit dumb). As one Marxist philosopher once said, it makes it impossible to think "unless it is against someone". Funnily enough, the philosopher in question was so obsessed by "the Other" and by solitude that he strangled his wife with his bare hands. Speaking of "horror".Lovecraft's characters' perpetual monologue is not the mark of an individual mind facing the object of his thought (which makes every serious thinking fundamentally a monologue). Lovecraft's kind of apparent monologue is in fact a dialogue with the "Other" (guess why Derrida's orphans love "HPL" so much: the "Other" is another theme shared by post-moderns and by the oldest and stalest doctrines). Lovecraft's narrator never states his object, and is always speaking about how a "dominant presence" ["dominant": see above, "master/slave"], an "unknowable mind infinitely wiser" than him, is occupying his thought. Lovecraft's characters live in a desperately deserted universe, but they are never alone, nor do they ever talk to themselves (=think): they are in perpetual subjugation to a universal mind. Thinking only through dialogue with a supreme and unreachable, non-human intelligence: Plato, again. Always Plato. (Hippies and the attenders of new age management courses will call him "Socrates", but he's Plato. Socrates is just Plato's puppet. What "lateral thinkers" and libArtarians call "Socrates" is just a Plato made "soft", indulgent and palatable for children spoiled by psychology and "progressive" education).ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 9:04 AM* HorrorThe most interesting issue is the relation between Lovecraft's adolescent Platonism and his easy recourse to "terror". Let it be clear: it is not an artistic description, the creation of a plot and of characters which will cause you terror. Lovecraft will just write: "I felt terror". Stop. And you are presumed to feel terror just because the author asks you to "feel" it. ["Pleeeeease, Daddy, don't laugh at me: I am the magician, and you are expected to be amazed when I find the lost handkerchief in auntie Harriet's ear!]. [Speaking of novelists and horror, read for example Elie Wiesel's "Night", especially the night train trip towards "the fire", if you want to know how a cold, dispassionate (but carefully thought out) report of events can, through its plot and its characters, not only make you feel horror, but at the same time make you understand where the horror comes from, which kind of men, places and events create it. And boy, is that horror "more than a man's mind can tolerate"! But you will be able to name it, to track causes and effects, and your mind will not be left out of the loop].Which finally brings me to the point.ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 9:05 AM* The horror of Lovecraft's eraLovecraft writes in the '20s and '30s. Not the most banal decades in recent history. Certainly not, as far as the coexistence of horror, terror and magnificent advancements in science and technology is concerned.And he is deeply entrenched in the mainstream of his era: "lonely genius", my ass.Ok, Lovecraft is a loser, a melancholy brat incapable of naming the object of his fear, and pretending that this nameless feeling is a "superior form of knowledge". But he feels he is the victim of a cosmic evil conspiracy. Or pretends he is.Like many intellectual crooks, he is smart enough to say to his readers that he believes that everybody is the victim of the same cosmic evil conspiracy: that's enough at least to get the attention of some other losers (ref.: the "Arkham cult", etc).Anyway, for all his adolescent self-pity and his cosmic inebriation with death, cannibalism and terror, Lovecraft is in no way an outsider: he is one hundred per cent mainstream, he is a perfect example of the worst cultural tendencies of the decades in which he wrote his stories: irrationalism, mysticism, Platonian cult of evil, belief in the necessity of evil, hence therapeutic indulgence, intoxication, fascination for primitive art and cults. But also: destruction of philosophy, language and thought by abuse of undue generalisations and extensions of specific "scientific" concepts. The most common: the vague echoes of Einstein's General Relativity used as a "scientific" support for moral and philosophical relativism. Or think of the debasement of logic founded on the "extension" of what in Heisenberg's or Plank's works are specific, partial, scientific observations, and not new foundations of epistemology, much less of metaphysics. The same happened for Goedel, another "star" of the "wonderful culture of the 20s and 30s", and another pet of Lovecraft's irrationalism (ref.: "Hypnos" about Einstein, "The dreams in the Witch-House" about Heisenberg, "The Mountains of madness" about topology, etc.). One modern (better: post-modern) fan of Lovecraft (M. Houellebeck) celebrates the fact that Lovecraft was able to "understand the deep links between Heisenberg, Goedel, topology, the transcendental mathematics and theosophy". Madame Blavatsky plus Goedel. Funny how much this sounds like the "scientific" books written fifty years later by Hofstadter and Co.But here I am just checking the background of the political and economic pupils of Lovecraft in our times. Let's go back to the '20s and '30s (never forgetting that they were a crucial economic, monetary and political turning point).Well, after those two decades this cultural debacle certainly helped the reaction of better-trained, less whiny, more muscular and more focused irrationalists: Hitler and Stalin. Whose irrationalism and Platonic political dream thrived on the damage caused by the cultural "climate" of the second and third decade of the XX century. Which our academia, journalists and science-fiction-educated bank clerks still consider a Golden Era of Western thought. While it was actually a resurgence of the Middle Ages.Of that "climate", Lovecraft is a son and a full representative.Those decades indeed left behind them a legacy of "terror", "horror", "bestiality" and "non-human nightmares".The horror and bestiality, which Lovecraft so morbidly describes, are not "from other universes". They were human, all too human. They were the concrete products of human thought, following the old, old, old philosophical paths that Lovecraft chose to follow too. ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 9:06 AM* The Fuehrer, a "poor devil". And Chtulhu?The horror and terror of the XX Century were the products of the most complete application ever of Platonism to economics and politics. Man had never been so completely subject to "perfect" and "perfectly abstract", "disembodied", "otherworldly" ideas; man's will had never been so thoroughly sacrificed to "another mind's" "omniscient" and arbitrary planning. Man's body had never been so massively starved and burnt in sacrifice to higher ideals and to the "common destiny of humanity before evil".And all this was happening (in Russia) or preparing (in Germany) while Lovecraft wrote his "fantasies", in terms which were perfectly coherent with the philosophical premises of Nazism and Communism. And as for "demons": since Plato declared that men need a caste of leaders because they cannot directly and rationally access "ideas for a perfect world", the ruse of dictators has always been to convince their subjects that the dictator serves the "demons". The spirits of another, superior world.The dictator doesn't pretend he is a demon: he is too smart to pretend not to be "human" and "imperfect": but he will pretend he is the right guy the people can entrust with the mediation with the Demons. He will just borrow some devilish traits (Hitler's frantic gestures, Stalin's frown) to make the audience "feel" the "demons"' presence. It is a ruse, a gimmick: Plato recommended a lot of ruses to the philosopher and to the politician to make the people "unknowingly" absorb superior knowledge."Take me to your leader", proclaims a green egg-headed Martian monster: that old line from all those cheap sci-fi movies [more about "sophisticated" sci-fi movies later] is one of the best definitions of leadership in the totalitarian societies. The Fuehrer is the guy who talks to the Old ones, to the Martians, to the Sage guys whose language and logic ordinary people just can't understand. Some degree of possession is requested (here's where Madame Blavatsky fits well with both Hofstadter and Goebbels).Back to Lovecraft. Lovecraft creates Chtulhu. Hitler pretends that Chtulhu created Hitler. Chtulhu doesn't exist; Lovecraft, not Chtulhu, created Hitler.Meaning: the lack of intellectual resistance to the ideological premises which made Communism and Nazism possible was the responsibility of intellectuals: collectivist and solipsist intellectuals alike.The correlation between Lovecraft's demons and nightmares and the horror of the XX Century's totalitarian regimes is evident even in its details. Read everywhere from Arendt to Wiesel to Bettelheim to Zinoviev to Solzenicyn about daily "life" in the "concentrationary universe" or worse in the extermination camps: you'll find the same accounts of a universe of "guilt without crime", of "terror without reason or cause", of "absence of a reason for good and evil", of "arbitrary punishment for no sin", of "reduction of men to non-human, beastly status by the arbitrary whims of beastly, omnipotent Gods". [About "punishment for no sin": Lovecraft's mythology about a "pre-existence to mankind" of the "hatred of man" is just a variation on the theme of Original Sin: maybe the biggest fraud in western thought. More about this later].The most stunning and synthetic theoretical description of the Platonian logic of the extermination camps has perhaps been written by Hannah Arendt: "horror, which was unintelligible to the victim". The Nazis worked hard to create such a universe, in small closed places carefully segregated from the real world and from its logic, in order to succeed. They had to beat, kill, rape, mutilate people into non-existence, they needed to militarise a whole continent, and yet they succeeded only for a few years: at the end, the consequences of their own logic swept them away by means of the military force of people who were too busy making money and eating beef to enjoy or even to understand ideological cannibalism. Nazis were swept away and camps were destroyed because they were of this earth. Because those non-human conditions were not of this earth. And because the divergence couldn't match for long. Something had to give up: as usual, "the new era" gave up.Well, Lovecraft on the contrary thought that "horror which is unintelligible to the victim" is the perpetual condition of the universe; that cannibalism pre-exists humanity; that hatred of man pre-exists humanity heh heh: some logic, isn't it?, the mind of man and his reason (nope, mr Lovecraft: hatred of man is CREATED by hatred of man's mind. You couldn't create what you hated so much. That's why you hated it).And, of course, he thought that the "omnipotent, evil, cannibal, beastly" but "omniscient" Gods are "eternal", and that they are there to stay forever. Beyond life, and above all beyond death [religious implications and background are evident].That is: he, just like Plato, thinks that "demons" are metaphysical entities. Concepts.That helped to create whole libraries of idiotic "metaphysical" science-fiction books about "disembodied intelligences" "old civilisations travelling through space in pure spiritual form" and of course "teaching humanity to think": from Arthur C. Clarke's "2001: A Space Odissey" to Robert A. Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land". Always the same "unintelligible Old sages" - more or less "cannibalistic" - forcing "a new logic" down the throat of men ref.: the "otherworldly" manna-like food which the astronaut eats in the final sequences of "2001", while he becomes an "elder One" - or the "grandchild of an elder", whatever -. Cannibalism, again. Cannibalism as the form of knowledge. Cannibalism is an epistemological problem].* power and the Other mindBack to Lovecraft's era, though: Lovecraft's books describe, and the XX Century totalitarians created, a universe made of power+irrationality. Or better: power+"another reason"; "absolute, godly authority" plus a "superior non-human reason". That was called "Plato's Republic" 2400 years ago, and "ideological war" in the XX Century.This combination of irrationality and hate+absolute power was cultivated by the intellectuals in the '20s and '30s (I'll speak about the present day in further notes) and was then carefully executed by Hitler and Stalin.Indeed, if you think that there is something specific which separates the vicious demons of Lovecraft and Hitler from the "greatness" of Plato: that is, "well-meaning authority", "love of knowledge" and "the quest for good for men, not of evil". Well, look no further than Stalin and Communism, for the XX Century version of a "well-inspired" combination of "absolute power" and "supreme, unintelligible reason", both aimed at the "common good". Same effects.The only difference is, that Hitler was so ingenuously bad-looking, evil-posturing, foul-mouthed and adolescently ill-tempered that it took less than a decade to convince the rest of the children that he was a bully, and to rally them in teaching him a lesson. On the contrary, the paternalistic (then perfectly Platonian) purposes of "social justice" advanced by the Communist totalitarians fooled a lot of people for decades. (And the idea that "the purposes were good" is still fooling many today). In this light, Arthur C. Clarke and Stanley Kubrick with their "benevolent" monoliths, their "progress-oriented" Old and Eternal "Sage Entities with Disembodied Minds" look, if possible, even more hateful. Their more "progressive" look is the reason why they became immensely popular in the '70s (together with Herman Hesse, Erich Fromm and other relics of the '20s/'30s intellectual generation responsible for levelling the cultural playfield for Hitler and Stalin). Lovecraft himself remained until recently "food for intellos", for nerds, for "outsiders", and for the new anti-intellectual mainstream: the libArtarian, para-nietzschean, quasi-capitalist brats of the current decades. This lesson from Lovecraft is explicit in the recent eulogy by a sick European intellectual of the '90s, Michel Houellebeck ("H.P. Lovecraft contre le monde, contre la vie", 1991). Houellebeck explicitly celebrates the Kantian roots (Kant = Plato smuggled into and against Enlightenment) of Lovecraft, with his cynicism and dark mood, which can be easily be mistaken for "disenchanted reason".Anyway, more of this later. Lovecraft is the father of them all, so let me give him the credit he deserves.* Lovecraft: a militant intellectualIn this sense, Lovecraft was one of most active intellectual militants of the XX Century. "Lonely writer" my ass: he was the worst kind of collectivist militant: a metaphysical one.The fact that in his letters he sometimes praised Hitler is not the main charge against him ("you could hang any man for three lines he once wrote", etc). The fact that he was a racist means less than nothing in an era that defines "racism" as "not believing that races exist". The fact that he never worked one day in his life (writing was not his work), and that he was a furious hater of any trade and industry in the name of a feudal class-system, is pitiful: but how many intellectuals share this view? It's hard to single him out for this. The fact that he killed himself using a cancer, by refusing to have it diagnosed and sticking to self-deception, is his own problem, that he will manage in some "other life" or "parallel universe" where he lives today after snubbing this life on this earth when he was in his terrestrial body and in his 40s. I'll keep surgery, if you don't mind.All of this is anecdote, which assumes a meaning only if I discover a logical thread connecting these unpleasant - and in some cases "politically incorrect" "personal flaws". What really matters is that the core of his literary, intellectual production and legacy, and the most successful part of it (the modern, quasi-scientific, quasi-metaphysical part), is poisoned by the philosophical premises that Hitler and Stalin shared with the most brilliant, sophisticated, sceptical, irreverent, agnostic, ironic, open-minded, politically correct intellectuals of the 20s and 30s. Lovecraft shares the core of political correctness: there lies his racism. He shares the worst of anticapitalism: that makes him a reactionary. He stuffs his books with metaphors from Heisenberg and Goedel: that makes him a mystic who helps Western culture to turn against reason.Lovecraft is terrible not because he was a "reactionary" and a secluded mysanthropist, but because he was a perfect humanitarian, perfectly, radically in tune with the altruism of the "best minds" of his times: he was a Grosz, a Breton, a Stefan George, a Schnitzler [Kubrick, again...], a Jung.With all his "horrors" and "beastly gods" Lovecraft is the "missing link" between Herman Hesse (both the '20s and the '70s editions) and Mengele. Between Schoenberg (the Wagner lover) and Eichmann. Between the millions of Hitler's "willing executioners" and the public of Berlin's "mythical" progressive expressionist theatre or the daily customers of Vienna's sophisticated "Cafes". Between the Dadaists and the Kapos. Between the "modern" face of political irrationalism and its Medieval one.ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 9:08 AM* LiteracyAnother margin note: the recurring metaphor, in Lovecraft's stories, of "unreadable alphabets", "unknown writing", "mysterious signs I couldn't decipher", seems to me a very plain and transparent image: it is an idiot's perception of human writing. (Another science fiction "master" wrote a whole novel about it, "Flowers for Algernon": more notes about that). It is one of Lovecraft's occasional ways of perceiving and acknowledging the fact that his works are about abdicating human imagination to idiocy.ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 9:09 AM* Lovecraft and businessmen's mindsShould I finally add that, in Lovecraft's stories, the less "sensitive", the less "perceptive" minds, the minds "closed to the otherworldly absolute knowledge", the minds which cannot be penetrated by the "visionary and prophetic dreams" sent by the "otherworldly Gods" - are (ref.: "The Call of Chtulhu") the minds of businessmen, whom he bitterly despised?And this idiot is the founder of a "cult", or even "a tradition", of "a modern folk mythology", not to mention an "epistemology", according to some distinguished literary critics, to at least one economist, and to at least one "rocket scientist without rockets" visiting this site? Please...ozy miani@consilia.com 08/12/01 9:11 AM* ghosts and ghostbustersI need a pizza and a movie now. The movie will be "Ghostbusters". When compared to Lovecraft's novels, "Ghostbusters" looks like a masterpiece: at least it reintroduces knights and maidens and heroes and laughter and purpose in "HPL"'s Contemporary Middle Ages. It treats NYC like it deserves (while HPL transmogrified it in delirious towns BUILT, not OCCUPIED, by demons). And it features one of the best dramatic impersonations ever of Lovecraft's characters: Rick Moranis as the "Door keeper Yot-Tsoggoth" ardently waiting for Chtulhu to show in Ripley's refrigerator. Refreshing.Which, through "free-association" or "as response to a stimulus" (spirit of the times), reminds me of that pizza. 2001_08_19_Strong dollar stable dollar real dollar etcCONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 08/19/01 5:31 PMStrong dollar, stable dollar, real dollar, etcA report which was sent today to our clients analyses the "strong dollar debate" with reference to currencies, stock markets and commodities. Complimentary copies are available to prospect clients. Mail requests to heidi@consilia.com2001_08_19_IMF antiglobal Argentina etcozy ozy@consilia.com 08/19/01 5:39 PMIMF, anti-global, Argentina etcI added my 0.002 euro of wisedom to the report on the "strong dollar debate" that we sent today to clients. My notes deal with the Bush policy re IMF. A famous dot.com company used as an advertising slogan these two phrases: "I have been with people in the streets of Seattle" and "I looked my enemy into his eyes, and I saw myself". Cool. After he has been told to "peso-ize" the dollar, Dubya is looking the enemy into his eyes: will he discover his true soul, or will he just finally tell his enemy to fuck off?This text too, prospective clients may ask to receive as a sample, mailing to sweet Heidi@consilia.com.2001_08_27_W V L U ten months laterconsilia sales@consilia.com 08/27/01 2:25 PMW, V, L, U, ten months laterThis week's report on forex and the economic cycle, which was sent yesterday to clients, updates our analysis on the "alphabet soup" theories about the US and global crisis.Complimentary copies are available to prospective clients. Mail heidi@consilia.com2001_08_27_gold trade economic cycle and informationozy miani@consilia.com 08/27/01 2:31 PMgold trade, economic cycle and informationrecent moves in the gold market offer a good opportunity for discussing 1) the presumed "automatism" of cftc-based trade systems and their relation to information; 2) gold standard, "information standard" and the monetary system [digressions on Argentina included]; 3) FED, BOJ, gold and information.Clients received a paper about it last night.Beautiful Heidi will send complimentary copies to prospective clients who will mail to her at heidi@consilia.com.2001_09_01_Do you want some Kofi in your Schnapps Mein Fuehrerbenny macau@consilia.com 09/01/01 12:10 PMDo you want some Kofi in your Schnapps, Mein Fuehrer?Message for Coffee Annan: kiss my ass. Of all the white imperialist chancellors of the XXth century, at Durban you borrowed a page from the ONLY ONE whose renounce to colonialism was not forced by events (=national independence fighters), but was instead a genuine ideological convinction: Hitler.He was the first european politician who theorised that Europeans and Americans shouldn't try to "force their civilisation on Africa", and that they should leave "different cultures" to grow according to "their standards". It is in "Mein Kampf", you stupid fool of a bureaucrat.You know what the consequences have been.Or maybe you just don't know shit.2001_09_11_so they were planning it while they were talking in Durban...ozy, benny, igor analyst@consilia.com 09/11/01 5:14 PMso they were planning it while they were talking in Durban...... so, they were planning all of this while they were whining about "racism", "oppression", and "violence" in Durban.Coffey Annan, closed in the basement of the UN building, may well have something to think about for the rest of his sorry lifesavana 09/13/01 5:26 PMRE: so they were planning it while they were talking in Durban...DURBAN will be renamed DUMB AN AL2001_09_12_WTCPreppmaster gregorybannier@hotmail.com 09/12/01 4:58 PMWTCAmazing. Cud not believe my eyes and thank good i am not having bloomberg anymore listening to comments from JJ and Bachtiar which will equate Bin Laden with Mahathir. ozy miani@consilia.com 09/12/01 8:31 PMRE: WTCwell, even worse things were written today by the BBG gang. had to listen to evans justifying the balastinian monkeys for celebrating the massacre.those spoiled kids are so clueless, that not even death can force one single rational thought in their skulls.as for mahatir: JJ has no bbg anymore (his singapore masters thanked their janitor for his lip-services the usual way). But, should he compare mahatir with bin laden... well, what's the difference? same kind of racist monkey.2001_09_13_The war against capitalismCONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 09/13/01 9:19 AMThe war against capitalismYossi Benamozegh ("benny", admiral@consilia.com) usually coordinates CONSILIA research on geopolitics when the Middle East and the Far East are concerned.He is in charge on research and analysis on the military and geopolitic follow-through of the kamikaze bombings of America.In addition to reading his analyses, clients can contact him directly for updates on current events.Complimentary copies of research and/or consultation are available to prospective clients and to the press. Please e-mail to macau@consilia.com for arrangements.2001_09_13_The war against capitalism 2CONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 09/13/01 9:26 AMThe war against capitalism / 2Ozy Miani (miani@consilia.com) is in charge of research and analysis on the ideaological and political premises and consequences of the kamikaze bombings of America, as far as Western countries and monetary institutions are concerned.In addition to reading his analyses, clients can contact him directly for updates on current events.Complimentary copies of research and/or consultation are available to prospective clients and to the press. Please e-mail to heidi@consilia.com for arrangements.2001_09_13_The war against capitalism 3CONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 09/13/01 9:30 AMThe war against capitalism / 3"Igor" Feldman (feldman@consilia.com) is in charge of market monitoring and analysis in the wake of the kamikaze bombings of America.In addition to reading his analyses, clients can contact him directly for updates on current events.Complimentary copies of research and/or consultation are available to prospective clients and to the press. Please e-mail to sales@consilia.com for arrangements.2001_09_17_central bank emergency interventions vs structural reflationCONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 09/17/01 6:16 PMcentral bank emergency interventions vs structural reflationCentral banks intervened providing monetary oxygen to the markets after the military aggression to USA.But reflation was long overdue both in the USA and in Japan, and even before the WTC choc the stock markets were going to a showdown with monetary autorities about it. The currency and commodity markets were sending disturbing signals.How do recent emergency interventions affect the longer term scenario?Will the emergency interventions play a wider ranging reflationary role?We discussed these issues in recent papers [last, this morning] and are discussing them today with clients.Prospective clients may ask for complimentary copies of papers. Mail to heidi@consilia.com2001_09_19_V and the gravity's raimbowozy miani@consilia.com 09/19/01 6:10 PMV and the gravity's raimbowgeorge soros is on the wires adding his 2 cents to the idea that the current market slump will force American slowdown into a quick recession-cum-recovery.In other terms, a "V"-shaped slump.The hope of a V-slump was at the beggining of the year Greenspan's thesis. It then shaped the mindset of investors who rode the "capitulation" (it was not) of the stock market in march, and the crazy bounce in april/may.Greenspan's was wrong, not just in FORECASTING a V-shaped recovery, but also in understanding what the crisis was about. Then, in managing it.The structural causes of the crisis made it a W-shaped one, biased towards a L-shaped one.Monetary policy, and monetary effects of the stock market moves and expectations, were the issue.Now, is the current fast fall CHANGING any of those structural premises?That's what I suggested we should discuss, a few days ago, when I spoke about the difference between the current emergency interventions by central banks and a structural reflation campaign.Either Bart Greenspan gets it, or the market is gonna explain him (take a look at FF futures, and at gold. If this guy waits for the quick fall to make the dirty work for him, we're gonna wait the up leg of the "V" for quite a while ).Is this the good moment to recommend you to read both "V" and "Gravity's Raimbow" by Pynchon? Dunno. But I may suggest you read our papers which used the same titles, a few months ago."Gravity's raimbow" is about the nazi V2, among others.heidi 09/19/01 6:11 PMRE: V and the gravity's raimbowisn't that "rainbow" with an "N", Sir?ozy miani@consilia.com 09/19/01 7:04 PMrainbowof course it is, young and pedantic lady.I also forgot to say that any prospective client can mail you at heidi@consilia.com and ask a copy of the abovementioned papers.proviso you don't treat him like you did with that poor guy yesterday2001_09_19_saracensCONSILIA library heidi@consilia.com 09/19/01 7:11 PMsaracensabout how and when Islam stopped being a driving force for culture and modernity; and how it was; and how it could have been; and why it wasn't any more; and how America was born just from the events which followed the Saracens' reign decline. May I suggest:Rose Wilder Lane, "The Discovery of Freedom", 1943. It was reprinted by Laissez-faire Books in 1984. It's out of print, but some online bookstores may help you find a collector's copy.taleban 09/20/01 1:37 PMRE: saracensBy paying the copyright fee and the price of the photocopies (plus of course the Consilia margin), could we get a copy of that book? Can we use credit cards in that case?CONSILIA library heidi@consilia.com 09/20/01 2:52 PMRE: RE: saracens1) using "taleban" as a nickname needs no comment. You must be a very stupid guy.2) I think that Roger Mc Bride owns the copyright on RWL's works. You should ask him. Copying 262 pages and shipping them to Afghanistan will not be easy anyway.Sounds like you're gonna stay ignorant for the rest of your life. Which is not much, considering the lifestyle of you guys and its foreseeable consequences.2001_09_20_Lottomatica 5ozy + igor analyst@consilia.com 09/20/01 3:01 PMLottomatica / 5chart lottomatica (italian new market, LTM) and analyse the data.they are approaching the degree of randomness which was once considered as typical of lotto numbers results.but...bibliography: the already quoted research by ozy on lotto, amoebas and fractals (early '90s)*burp*2001_09_20_Georgeozy miani@consilia.com 09/20/01 6:55 PMGeorgeSoros on the wires again.Now he's buying [I liked him better when he was a compulsive short seller] the "sensitive to concerns of others" theory about aggression to America.The man who believed that Gorbatchev was going to deliver now believes that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are going too. And blames USA for not "understanding" other civilisations.Didn't he aknowledge he had "lost it" and didn't he promise to shut up when he bought nasdaq at 4500?When did he decide he is a genius again?A trader should be less wavering about his commitments.Recent events are bringing to surface a lot of huge holes in the market gurus' political thought and analytical skills.QED[oh, I almost forgot: speaking of QED. This forum started one year ago. the first posting was a comment by me and joe melli about osama bin ladin (it was then erased due to the website being reformatted). That's when a well-known quantum electrodynamics expert entered the forum and said "who gives a flick about those arabs?". George Soros Award 2001 for Foresight]2001_09_20_and now Bart Greenspanozy miani@consilia.com 09/20/01 7:23 PMand now Bart Greenspanmadness is slowly creeping in...after George S. saying that the WTC slaughter is a "wake-up call" for US "arrogance"... now it's Alan "Bart" Greenspan asking to US government not to be too hasty in stimulating the economy, because over the past few days rates of corporate bonds rose too much and that's "disturbing".Somebody please tell Bart that in a deflationary environment debtors usually default, and that could be more of a plausiblereason for corporate spread widening than "irrationally exuberant expectations"...Please, Dubya, please: repel that fucking capital gains tax and nuke them fuking monkeys. please. now.After, only AFTER, you'll take the time to discuss with this bunch of fading '90s vedettesozy miani@consilia.com 09/21/01 7:11 PMand now "magic" bobwould you believe? bob rubin thinks that tax cuts are a bad idea too.it sounds like a meeting of '90s crooks. where's jacques delors? missing his opinion2001_09_21_Stockhausenguess who? analyst@consilia.com 09/21/01 1:35 PMStockhausenNo, he is not one a Bundesbank economist.He is the "greatest" heir of Wagner. Maybe the most important contemporary music composer in Germany over the past 40 years. And when we say "music composer", we mean it in the Wagner sense: a perfect and total embodyment of German spirit.Over the past 30 years the guy has been busy writing a Wagner-style opera which he will not finish (his son is ready to work on it over the next 30 years). At this stage, the work lasts 27 hours. Until now it has been represented in smaller fragments of just 4 or 5 hours.It will include a summary of western and eastern religions and souls, so stay tuned for the premiere. You, or your grandsons.Such a pompous boring attitude didn't stop the rock scene from considering Stockhausen a "great pioneer of new sounds". "New sounds" being more or less jimi hendrix soloing for 25 minutes on overtones without one single recognizable note.In the meantime, the guy is following Wagner's path also as an opinion-maker.On the Twin Towers attack, he said the following smart sentences, which we'll comment in a minute:QUOTE. "What happened there is--they all have to rearrange their brains now--is the greatest work of art ever. That characters can bring about in one act what we in music cannot dream of, that people practice madly for 10 years, completely fanatically, for a concert and then die. That is the greatest work of art for the whole cosmos." UNQUOTE. Signed: Karlheinz Stockhausen.Stokhausen is 73. hardly too young to remember.Now, we have a little dirty secret: besides being the brain and the dustbin boy in this outfit of economic geniuses, we play together in a jazz band. Keyboards and drums, respectively.One of us recently intervened in a debate on a austrian-american jazz composer (joe zawinul), whose music we often play. During the debate, the relation between modernity, music and the European culture had been widely misunderstood. So, this guy from CONSILIA decider to dot some "i"s. We'll post here some notes from that debate. It's an unedited text.Of course, after the closing sentence, after the names of Hitler and Wagner, you may add Stockhausen's name.the brain (with full support from the dustbin boy) analyst@consilia.com 09/21/01 1:37 PMJazz, America, Europe and oversimplification (unedited notes)On music, irrationalism, America and "European culture". And on "oversimplification".Let me try to "oversimplify" some more:Europe began the XXth Century under the domination of Richard Wagner, who represented in music the final accomplishment - and destruction - of Romanticism. He summed up both the mysticism AND the pretence of omniscience, omni-comprehensiveness of the German culture. His music was meant to be at the same time the perfect incarnation of ALL the musical rules, AND the dissolution of all rules and boundaries. Wagner made Mozart and Beethoven sound like illiterate beginners, hemmed in by narrow boundaries. And, after Wagner brought FOLKLORE to its apotheosis, nobody could even think of touching folklore again without feeling inadequate and intimidated.Wagner's music was the perfect music for a Europe, which believed itself to be at the ULTIMATE stage of civilisation. And which instead would quickly lose any certitude, any rule, and would find itself plunged into war, then chaos, and then war again. And discovered that Sigfried was the icon of nihilism, and that Wagner's perfect command of musical language had indeed dissolved the musical codes and language.The same was happening in philosophy, in psychology, in visual arts, in theatre, even in science (e.g.: in mathematics and logic).So, Europe had no longer a musical code. Tonality was worth nothing after Wagner had taken care of its limits.The second and third decade of the XX Century were the decades of the death of tonality, the death of classical philosophy, the death of consciousness, the death of realism.At the same time, Europe had to face another challenge: modernity Machines, mass production, war machines, mass warfare.Europe then needed to re-build a language, a code for music. A new music which "had to be suitable for modernity". This raised lot of problems and paradoxes, of a technical but above all of a philosophical order. Which the European intellectuals tackled the usual way: backwards.Europe spent the whole XXth Century trying to find the formula for "a music of modernity", that would go "beyond Wagner"; that would be "the MODERN music" but should not "succumb" to modernity. It should have the "rhythm of the machines", but "not fall prey of massification". But without the Enlightenment they could go nowhere. Because the Enlightenment's philosophy arose precisely in order to make the machines, man, art, money, mass success and individual talent fit well into the same world.Without (before or against) the Enlightenment, the machine was in conflict with tradition, people were in conflict with the machine [see the post-WWI literature about war as a struggle between soldiers and machine], and European culture was torn between fundamentalist folklore and paternalist academia, between an aristocracy of intellectuals who hated money and the progress of the economy and of the machines, which snubbed the intellectualism of artists.The end of the Enlightenment had left Europe with no logic to integrate its differences.Art against money, "popular" "against" "rigorous", "difficult" against "intelligent": without Reason, non-existent contradictions multiplied everywhere. In music, too.All that Europe got was the dodecaphonic abortion, and the absurd books of German sociologists [Adorno] trying to reconciliate Schoenberg with the Enlightenment, and the Enlightenment with its contrary (Marxism and German ideology) ["Dialectic of Enlightenment" is one of the most anti-Enlightenment books].In order to find new and clear ideas about art and the machines, it would not have been so bad an idea to go back to the Enlightenment, indeed. But the Enlightenment had left Europe. It had moved to America, leaving Europe behind, the prey of ideologues and assassins who looted it through two World Wars.Anyway, back to music.Europe spent a century looking for a modern-but-non-modern language of music. All it got was a couple of German cacophonists, even more soporific than Wagner.In the meantime, America looked at the problem from an Enlightenment point of view (i.e.: with no fear of modernity, machines, mass mediatisation).And invented jazz: a "difficult", "sophisticated", "modern", TECHNOLOGICAL music which made people dance and sing. Both the illiterate and the intellectuals. Soldiers and poets. Typists and movie tycoons. Stockbrokers and whores.[The soldiers would later have the thankless task of bringing this funny American invention back to Europe, when they were called back in order to solve a minor mess created by some of Wagner's disciples; but that's another story].Europeans liked that music, but later found that Americans as usual had "oversimplified" the issue, and they tried to turn jazz into a more serious thing. If you don't see what I mean, go to a Belgian jazz club. Try. Once. And snore your brain off.And this is a pity, because jazz included one thing which would have been VERY important for European culture: it integrated popular music into the only real new language of music created after Wagner.And Europe, with all its dispersed and fragmented folk sources and traditions, always oscillating between ethnic museography and populism, could well have used a powerful language which was capable of integrating accordeons with mandolins, guitars with gypsy voices or violins, and pan flutes with electronic instruments into the most advanced MODERNITY.And the irony is, that jazz received its formidable capacity for integrating tradition into the modern from European immigrants [Zawinul is the most explicit and conscious example].But Europeans needed to move to America, to find there their long lost friend, the Enlightenment, in order to be capable of using a kletzmer clarinet as a symphonic orchestra soloist.Without the Enlightenment, the German symphonic orchestra and the Jewish clarinet portamento could never meet. Without the Enlightenment and its unconditional support for the machines built by man's mind, NEVER and NEVER a Bell laboratories piece of phone equipment, originally built for modulating voices over long distance calls, be used to sing - especially along with the voice of a folk poet singing in a Balkan dialect. This couldn't happen in the Balkans.It takes the Enlightenment idea of man to have white and black men working together as color-blind individuals, and yet produce colourful music.It takes intellectual tools to create a language.Jazz is the musical language of modernity.It took the intellectual tools of modernity for a civilisation to allow the birth of jazz. It took the Enlightenment.But Europe had lost it.Worse, it had betrayed and distorted it.Europe had turned the Enlightenment against man's reason. Kant had twisted it into a mysticism of impotent reason. Fichte and Hegel had perverted reason into an enemy of freedom. Marx had turned it against man's means of producing wealth, and against capitalism which is the concrete, accomplished societal form of the Enlightenment.While these "rationalists" twisted reason, IRRATIONALISM met with increasing enthusiasm: spiritualism, blood folklore, nostalgia for the Middle Ages, dark heroes from nordic regions, symbolism, racism.At the end of BOTH roads, there is Wagner. And Hitler.pierre tassone musbymail@get2net.dk 09/22/01 12:16 PMeurope and jazz> God bless the country where black people, jews and finally austrian gipsies > could invent jazz and make it the way out of european music's blind alley.Yeah, that stupid european music's blind alley that produced such nulls as: Mc Laughlin, Dave Holland, Martial Solal, Jean-Luc Ponty, Enrico Pieranunzi, Paolo Fresu, Enrico Rava, Franco Di Andrea, John Marshall, Eberhard Weber, Terje Rypdal, Jon Christensen, Palle Danielsson, Eddy Louiss, Michel Petrucciani, Helen Merrill, Niels Henning Ørsted Petersen, Wolfgang Dauner, Philip Catherine, René Thomas, Louis Sclavis, Double Six, Didier Lockwood, Michael Urbaniak, Jan Garbarek, Palle Mikkelborg, Michel Portal, Daniel Humair, Allan Holdsworth, Gordon Beck, Hans Koller, etc...Poor old Europe, so many and so blind!Pierrethe brain (with full support from the dustbin boy) analyst@consilia.com 09/22/01 12:18 PMRE: europe and jazzanswer to pierre tassone:had you took 5 minutes to read my papaer, you would have discovered that I was speaking of the European music disaster after Wagner, and of the European failure to find a "modern" musical language UNTIL jazz was invented. All the musicians you quote are jazz players, whose integration of folklore+classical music+technology comes from the the jazz invention. They are the BENEFICIARIES of the fact that jazz (=folklore+multietnicity+technology+sophistication+joy and dance) had brought music out of the post-wagnerian blind alley. That was, in a nutshell, my thesis: European music entered a blind alley when it tried to solve the contradiction between Wagner (=the PERFECT and COMPLETE European tradition PLUS its "dissolution") and modernity+machine+technology and their rhythm. Jazz was the "enlightened", pop-oriented, folklore-integrating, modernity-oriented, technology-oriented solution (think of the jewish kletzmer clarinet note bending in the first bars of Rapsody in Blue: it contains the solution to the dodecaphonic research of "new notes", it taught note bending to a CENTURY of musicians, and it couldn't be even conceivable in Wagner's Europe, because it REQUESTED - among others - racial tolerance).On the contrary, Stockhausen (and his crazy ideas about "the beauty of cosmic destruction" with reference to the twin towers slaughter) is a DIRECT heir of the European disorientation after Wagner. He is still where Europe was in 1912 or 1933. But I understand that commenting a cover is easier than reading a book or listening to a record. It's what musical critics do all the time.I am sorry I am always so banal in my comments. I wil try to be more "intellectual" and "informed" next time.2001_09_22_Un-manned planes and non-human warsbenny admiral@consilia.com 09/22/01 2:12 PMUn-manned planes and non-human warsFirst strike of the "non-undiscriminated war" against terrorism: talibans hit and sink a un-manned plane on reconnoitrering mission.Thanks god technology spared a human life loss, but this way we are not going anywhere. we'll be torn bewteen fear of losses and unbearable losses. Land mines and guerilla make the two unavoidable unless the nuclear deterrent is available. And unless that's made clear ASAP to the Europeans before they start whining.That doesn't mean "use the nukes first, reconnoitrers after": it just means that the hope of an "un-manned" war is unfounded. We already paid a tribute to "non-human intelligence" (see the failure in forecasting and stopping the twin tower slaughter); better avoid that when large-scale military operations are concerned.And employing humans against this gang of non-humans REQUESTS a very, very effective deterrent. Any "base use permission" in europe, turkey and arab countries MUST include nuclear weapons, or the message won't go through.What now, mr Chirac and mr Schroeder, mr Putin: do we all agree? If necessary, will tactical nukes be available for air support to "door to door police missions"? yes? no?European and Arab answer to the question is fundamental to the war's results.2001_09_22_Talibans and "trans-religious dialogue"Alastair Mitton alastair@om-int.com 09/22/01 5:16 PMTalibans and "trans-religious dialogue"Please take a few minutes to read and act on this email. On May 23rd 2001 the Taleban authorities in Afghanistan confirmed that all Hindus will be required to wear a strip of yellow cloth sewn on to a shirt pocket in order to identify themselves. They claim that the measure is for their "protection". The world has faced this before, in 1939 the world was required, at great cost, to rid itself of Hitler's tyranny, it is not hard to spot his child. Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to relive it. The Taleban's record on respecting other religions gives great cause for concern that their ultimate aim, upon which they are intent, is "religious cleansing". They have already demonstrated their disdain and intolerance for other religions and traditions by the desecration and destruction of the ancient Buddhist statues, our collective heritage, within Afghanistan. Whatever your religion, or even if you have none, we hope that you will agree that this is fundamentally wrong. "All it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing". Please do not do nothing - add your voice. DIRECTIONS: PLEASE COPY this email on to a new message, add your name to the bottom and forward it to everyone on your distribution list. If you receive this petition and you find that you are the 251st name on it, please e-mail a copy of it to: alastair@om-int.com It will then be forwarded to the UN. Please then delete all the names, add your own as the 1st and pass it on. Even if you decide not to sign, please be considerate and do not kill the petition as you will be denying your friends, and theirs, their legitimate voice. Instead return it to alastair@om-int.com To The Secretary General, Security Council and General Assembly of the United Nations. We the undersigned are appalled by the decision of the Taleban government of Afghanistan to require all Hindus to wear a piece of yellow cloth sewn on to a shirt pocket in order to identify themselves. An individual's communion with God, however they find him, is a matter of personal conscience and must not be the subject of intimidation or persecution. The right of everyone to worship as they wish is fundamental and inalienable. The United Nations was founded in order to defeat Hitler and his henchmen who required the same from another religion with all it's horrific consequences. It is completely unacceptable that nearly 60 years later history is repeating itself. We ask the following: 1. That the Taleban government is made aware in the strongest possible terms that the world will not countenance this perversion of human rights. 2. That prior to the United Nations and/or its constituent members granting recognition of the Taleban government, this obscene policy is reversed. 3. That the United Nations widen the terms of the trade sanctions currently in force. bendynelly 09/24/01 11:43 AMDilaogue?Religious dialogue is an oxymor for Talebans. Sharia can't live with other religions. Religion freedom is usually guaranteed by a Constitution, law of men. How can a system, which claims to be superior to the Consitution, protect religious minorities? Sharia, the law of allah, can't even think of a system where people of different religions can live together.2001_09_25_diake hokumat nistCONSILIA library heidi@consilia.com 09/25/01 1:04 PMdiake hokumat nistdiake hokumat nist: "there, where there's no government".nickname, which the afghani guerrillas against the russians gave to the zones they cleaned from russians. No "new islamic republic", no "afghani nation", just "the pigs are no more there". And this was considered a Rule, a form of structured society. "No-russians-here" IMPLIED all the basic rules of civil life.In the first years of the aghani war, the guerrillas (especially in the southern zone) were so fragmented and ideology-free that they didn't have any other project than getting rid of the russians), and to get back to a center-less society.a brief interlude of totalitarism-free resistance movement.Well, not really, if islamic rule could later assert itself.Anyway: B-H Levy, "Questions of principle", 1987.benny admiral@consilia.com 09/25/01 1:14 PMno russians thereyeah. just think twice before replacing crazy arabs with crazy russians, especially disguised as United nations "observers".I still think that, after so many years of "thick glass ceiling" imposed to afghani women, a good thick "glass floor" would the best "ground" for building new institutions in that area.It works like that: you take sand, rock and argil, and you quickly overheat it using a device based on nuclear fast fission. That tends to cauterize both poppy roots and monkey religious schools. etc.2001_09_25_Bart Greenspan behind closed doorsozy miani@consilia.com 09/25/01 5:25 PMBart Greenspan behind closed doorsToday Greenspan told a closed-door Senate Finance Committee meeting that he continues to believe Congress should wait until more economic data are available before deciding to move ahead with a stimulus plan.I have one question: once they finally got Bart Greenspan behind closed doors, why don't they just fucking throw the fucking key away?and pardon my Japanese2001_09_25_The war against capitalism 4CONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 09/25/01 5:34 PMThe war against capitalism / 4Last Sunday's weekly report to clients on forex and monetary policies included an analysis of FED's and BOJ's strategies over the past 15 days. It dealt also with the ideological and political aspects involved, and which were discussed in the previous paper. It includes also an evalutation of the political aspects of capital flows related to the war shock on the US markets.In short: what foreign policy it takes on the part of USA, for the biggest oil and weapons IMPORTER on this planet (Japan) to switch fund allocation from US to Japan? And how does a war REALLY affects usd/jpy capital flows?Complimentary copies are available to prospective clients. mail to heidi@consilia.com.2001_09_29_kidnapping and the war against capitalismozy miani@consilia.com 09/29/01 2:00 PMkidnapping and the war against capitalismkidnapping.Kidnapping a diplomat, using him to blackmail the USA. Kidnapping US or brit special force soldiers, for the same purpose. Kidnapping belongs to the standard warfare of islamic terrorism. Israel has endured it over two decades in Lebanon.Kidnapping is a powerful symbolic weapon. We should be sure not to misunderstand it.Kidnapping links the body and freedom of one individual to the "general" and "state" interests. It is then a symbol of the subjugation of man, his will, his individual freedom, to totalitarian ideologies.It also constitutes a mockery of trade: ransom is the negation of trade. It makes a man OBJECT of trade, instead of subject, mover of the trade.Kidnapping is a business for slave-traders.It is then a poweful example of what this war is about, SINCE YEARS: it is a war waged by States (or States-within-States, or Party-States) which negate individual freedom and the link between ownership of an individual mind and private property of goods.To protect soldiers from bullets is difficult, to say the least. But to protect them from being kidnapped (using all the determination and the weapons needed) is a CRUCIAL symbolic stake in this war.benny admiral@consilia.com 09/29/01 2:24 PMkidnapping and slaveryNow that you mention it:Kidnapping is the "art" which made the Arabs great slave traders in the first place.And you forgot also to mention the direct correlation between kidnapping and rape (same idea of the relation between body and mind, sexuality and will). Let me see if I find something about it in the Durban's Conference proceedings... er... hold on...2001_09_30_Koizumi and yenCONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 09/30/01 7:48 PMKoizumi and yenWe already debated on these pages the parallels between Koizumi's fiscal and monetary choices and his stand on military and geopolitical issues.The analysis has been updated in a paper which was just sent to clients. Complimentary copies are available to prospective clients. Mail to: heidi@consilia.com2001_09_30_Oil the NYMEX and OPECCONSILIA analyst@consilia.com 09/30/01 7:52 PMOil, the NYMEX and OPECA report on september 16th commented on the geopolitical consequences of the power shift induced by the creation of NYMEX.That analysis has been updated in a paper which was just sent to clients.Complimentary copies are available to prospective clients. Mail requests to: macaui@consilia.com2001_10_02_America after Greenspans Tough Love Therapyozy miani@consilia.com 10/02/01 8:57 PMAmerica after Greenspan's Tough Love TherapyLet me see if I understand: real FED rates are NEGATIVE, and gold is down 2 bucks?And this guy was afraid of inflation?I see.2001_10_04_Thatcher againozy miani@consilia.com 10/04/01 7:18 PMThatcher, againcan't fukin' believe it (or. worse: I can. I know them all too much). The Blairites assaulting Thatcher for "aggravating racial tensions" in the wake of 9/11. Let me see: "insensitive", "inflammatory" [this guy is lot of laughs, listen who's speaking of "flames" ref sept 11th: the Muslims].Who next? Er... Heseltine: "Frankly, I find it difficult to find words to describe my horror". Is he speaking of the Towers attack? No, he is speaking of Thatcher's comments on the lukewarm condemnation of the attacks by Islamic leaders.Just didn't get the message. They didn't fuckin' get-da-message.ozy miani@consilia.com 10/10/01 1:13 PM"horror"QEDwhile heseltine was "horrified" and the Blairite gang was "shocked" and "ashamed" by the "insensitive" Thatcher's comment, Jo Moore was busy planning to use "people's feeling" for her spin mission (see today's newspapers).Was it just Jo Moore? Or was the whole Labour Spin Machine going ballistic? The fact that Moore was not be immediately fired is appalling.Which demonstrates that feeling-based politics is the refuge of rogues. And that "insensitive" people who just talk business usually are the less prone to do really nasty things.2001_10_07_As a matter of recordCONSILIA library heidi@consilia.com 10/07/01 12:32 PMAs a matter of recordMASERU, Lesotho (AP)--Lesotho's Queen Karabo gave birth to a baby girl Sunday morning, the first child she has had since marrying King Letsie III last year. The baby was born at 6:25 a.m., Queen Mamohato, the queen mother, said in an announcement at the Maseru Private Hospital on the outskirts of the capital, according to the South African Press Association. Since the baby is not male, King Letsie's younger brother, Prince Seeiso, remains heir to the throne. Lesotho, a poor southern African country of 2.1 million, is entirely encompassed by South Africa. 2001_10_08_Columbus DayBenny admiral@consilia.com 10/08/01 7:09 PMColumbus DayI had something to say about today's celebration of Columbus Day. This morning's column by David Gelertner on the "Wall Street Journal" presents me with the opportunity.I appreciated it, but I can't completely agree with Gelernter's column. I especially can't agree with its headline: "They hate us because they hate Israel" [where "us" is America, and "they" is the Muslim fundamentalist terrorists, and more widely the huge majority of the Muslim world which... er... hates me, you, America, Israel and more or less everything west of Jerusalem].Mr Gelernter rhetorically asks "if they hate USA because they hate freedom, democracy and the West, why don't they hate Britain or Italy?".Well, first of all Mr Gelernter probably hasn't visited Italy oevr the past 50 years. Nor has he taken a close look at its foreign and economic policies. As for "they don't hate Britain", since my office is 200 meters from 10 Downing Street I strongly hope mr Gelernter is not dramatically wrong. This war is not over yet.Then: mr Gelernter forgot to mention "capitalism" along with "freedom" and "democracy". Capitalism strongly qualifies American freedom and democracy as something very particular. In geopolitical terms too.This brings me to the true reason for my disagreement with that headline:Mr Gelernter should look no further than today's celebration of Columbus Day.Today's holiday celebrates the anniversary of the birth of America, of the beginning of the slow decline of Europe, but also of the death of the Arab civilization's role in the West, and of the split between the Jews and the East,Many things began in that ominous 1492.Columbus Day remembers the moment when America was invented by the best minds in Europe: the most courageous men of science, culture and trade, who took the latest scientific invention ("the Earth turns!") and translated it into a political and commercial venture. At the same time, by giving a concrete application to a new cosmological idea, Columbus' adventure laid the foundations for the flourishing of modern science and eventually for the rise of the Enlightenment. Columbus is the European who PHYSICALLY went beyond the World of the Middle Ages. Those were the real Pillars of Hercules he trespassed beyond. America is: modernity made concrete, science made business and prosperity. Columbus was the first American by translating cosmology into business.He accomplished and symbolized several concurrent revolutions which were happening in Western Civilization. He applied a PHYSICAL and COSMOLOGICAL discovery, which had THEOLOGICAL implications, to a COMMERCIAL and POLITICAL venture.The scientific basis of his adventure was the MOVEMENT of Earth, and the philosophical and theological shock of that discovery allowed him to go West. "Going West" is, then, the geographical and symbolic mark of the END of the Middle Ages."Western civilization" means: civilization moving OUT of the Middle Ages. In the opposite direction. On a different and opposite scale of values.In that same year 1492, the very soul of Europe which resisted modernity EXPELLED the Jews and the Muslims from Spain. Isabela was the part of Europe who still believed the Earth to be flat: Who still believed that power and energy come from Heaven to racially selected Kings, and not from the very physical exhistence and movement of this Earth, available to every man of reason.Isabela's edict marked the END of Arab civilization (all of the great accomplishments of "Islamic culture" date BEFORE that moment). The Arabs retreated into the East, into resentment and regression, and slowly declined into their Middle Ages. Europe had a brief explosion of euphoria, then had to leave the task of leading civilization to England, to the Atlantic and to America. European Christians looked at Isabela's attempt to stop the Earth from turning, and decided that Middle Age Christianity was not enough for them. They then merged Christianity with Aristotle, which they inherited from the Arabs, and gave Western Civilization the gigantic boost of Humanism, Renaissance and finally Enlightenment.The Arabs missed the boat. They chose to. They dreamed of an Empire in the East. they believed they had ALREADY INNOVATED Christianity. But the Earth was turning the other way round. And the cultural leap would be far bigger than the Islamic "reform".The Jews, on the other hand, expelled by Spain, chose to remain WITHIN the West. They (we: I am an Israeli) fully contributed to the bulding of science and culture and capitalism. In the West.And we too, we went back to the East, but only as Occidentals. As capitalists (even as socialists: the West's wealth allowed us the luxury of socialism!). As free men. We BOUGHT back our land. We brought it Western civilization, its laws, its women wearing blue jeans, its books, its movies, industry, technology.And this is UNBEARABLE for the Arabs to look at. Daily. In the East.They hate us Israelis because we chose the West after 1492. And because we came back to Middle East as a living example of what they could have been, had they chosen the West.They hate Israel because they hate America. And they have hated it since 1492, not since 1948.Have a Happy Columbus Day, then, y'all: it's one of the most important celebrations in our history.2001_10_11_Nobelozy miani@consilia.com 10/11/01 9:39 AMNobelStiglitz. Cool. Not.ozy miani@consilia.com 10/12/01 11:49 AMkofey, like the drinkand finally the Nobel Prize for peace completes the picture.After awarding a Prize to Arafat for having brought peace to the Middle East, a prize or "fighting terrorism" to the protagonist of the Durban Conference is the icing on the cake (speaking of cake: whant some schnapps in your cofee?).Which makes the huge misunderstanding about Naipaul even more interesting.I suggest that your read th Academy's motivation of Naipaul's prize. The guys just didn't get it. They completeky missed the scale of values depicted in Naipaul's woks. They completely ignored that this is the writer who said that anybody coming from the "periphery" of civilization would feel the drive towards its most advanced values. That he felt the exhilaration of being a Western-Indian moving TO England BECAUSE he wanted to live precisely in the values of the "core of the Empire". And that he concluded that, unfortunately, his Hindu grandfather coudln't UNDERSTAND what those values mean.That's the contrary of that funny comment on Naipaul's centers on interest: "NOT LEAST, England". NOT LEAST?What's really, really funny, is that talents such as Naipaul's are the ultimate confutation of racism. His pride for Western values, for individual thought, his lack of indulgence towards self-pity ("the world IS. Those who allow themselves to become nothing, have no place in it") are the CONTRARY of what the Academy motivation describes as the meaning of his works.Anyway, cheers for Naipaul's victory. Analphabetism (Swedish Academians never read the authors they choose) sometimes helps.g. melli melli@consilia.com 10/12/01 7:37 PMallacchiahold on: did they really award the prize to the whole UN organization? Pino Arlacchi is bragging that the Nobel Prize belongs to him too.Didn't UN recently fire him for subsidising Taliban? TALIBAN. of all people on this earth! Speak about TIMING!And wasn't Annan term renewal a short term fix, 'cause there was no compromise on a better candidate?CONSILIA library heidi@consilia.com 10/11/01 1:03 PMRE: Nobel"The facts about Columbus have always been known. In his own writings and in all his actions his egoism is like an exposed deformity; he condemns himself. But the heroic gloss, which is not even his own, has come down through the centuries." (from Naipaul, 'Columbus and Crusoe', in The Overcrowded Barracoon, 1972) Are bleeding hearts going to love it? dunno. Better than Bob Dylan, though.CONSILIA Library heidi@consilia.com 10/11/01 1:12 PMNaipaulEM Forster has long been considered a master of modern English fiction with his sentimental view of India and gentle satires on the pretensions of the colonial classes. But according to Sir Vidia (VS) Naipaul, novelist and mischievous chronicler of the Caribbean colonial experience, Forster was a sexual predator more interested in seducing garden boys than revealing the truth about India. Naipaul, who has a new novel out next month, also labelled Forster's most famous work, A Passage to India, "utter rubbish" in an interview with the Literary Review, published today. In it he derides Forster and his friend, the economist John Maynard Keynes, as homosexuals who exploited the poor and those in their power for sexual gratification. He said the pair set their work against a background of "mystery and lies", and that Forster's book was "a lying mystery". Asked about the three religions of India by interviewer Farrukh Dondy, Naipaul launched into an assault on Forster's "pretence of poetry". "People write such rubbish about the three religions of India," he said. "People like EM Forster make a pretence of making poetry of the three religions. It's false. It's a pretence. It's utter rubbish. "I don't think Forster ... knew what it means. It [A Passage to India] has only one real scene, and that's the foolish little tea party at the beginning. "Forster, of course, has his own purposes in India. He is a homosexual and he has his time in India, exploiting poor people, which his friend Keynes also did. "Keynes didn't exploit poor people, he exploited people in the university; he sodomised them and they were too frightened to do anything about it. Forster belonged to that kind of nastiness really. "I know it might be liberally wonderful now to say it's OK but I think it's awful. That's the background to all the mystery and lies. It is a lying mystery." Asked whether Forster had contributed anything to the understanding of India, Naipaul was withering. "He encouraged people to lie. He was somebody who didn't know Indian people. He just knew the court and a few middle class Indians and the garden boys whom he wished to seduce." Naipaul's assault on the content and morality of Forster's work comes on the eve of publication of his new novel, Half a Life. Last year Naipaul, 68, was equally savage about Tony Blair, describing him as a pirate at the head of a socialist revolution "destroying the idea of civilisation in this country" and responsible for "a plebeian culture that celebrates itself". 2001_10_12_helpshelly noimportent@abc.com 10/12/01 4:42 PMhelphii vant to buy a world around ticket. an open ticket that has like 5-7 flights and is open for a year long. can anybody help me find one i can buy on the net???thanksveronica hushhush@consilia.com 10/12/01 6:10 PMhappy to helpthey have plenty of odd plane tickets in stock at www.milominder.com. if u don't mind flying cargo.go there and click. don't worry if they won't answer immediately. go on clicking and staring at the screen.2001_10_15_Lemonsozy miani@consilia.com 10/15/01 4:57 PMLemonsEverybody is writing about lemons this days, so I will do it too, because otherwise I would risk somebody to think that I am not a serious economist. Allah forbid."Serious" economist means an economist who shares inside jokes. For example: "how many ..."... oh, forget it.Guess why Economics made a reputation for being a "dismal science"... If THIS is its funny side...Anyway.Paul Krugman wrote the smartest and funniest piece of them all (I mean: of them all dealing with Stiglitz's famous lemons), yesterday on the "NY Times".Readers who don't know what Stiglitz has got to do with lemons are obviously not insiders so they don't deserve to laugh at insider jokes. They are probably common imbeciles, the kind which laughs only at funny jokes. They should forget the lemons. If they want to talk about Stiglitz, they should stay in a separate room and ask for example WHY Stiglitz advised Clinton to welcome the "no-global" looters in Seattle, and WHAT this has got to do with the fact that he now shares a Nobel prize with Coffee Anal and with poor Mr Naipaul, who did nothing to deserve such an insult.[That's the kind of boring questions which non-economists spend their time thinking about. Sad lives. Sad, sad lives].Why am I beating the bush? Because I am waiting for the non-insiders to go away. I want to share this insider joke only with insiders.Are you gone?Good.You too, Sir. Yes, the man with the red hat. Yes, please. Please go. Thank You.Now: Paul Krugman wrote this piece full of insider jokes, in which he congratulates Stiglitz for his Prize. It is really funny. Laughs. You see, there is this guy with lemons... and the other guy bearing a handicap tells him...HEY, YOU!, damn, IT I CAN'T GO ON LIKE THIS! THROW THE GUY OUT!FUCK!Can't we insiders have ONE MINUTE of privacy?Ok, call me back when the lurker will be gone.2001_10_16_Naipaul terrorist suicide brotherhoodCONSILIA library heidi@consilia.com 10/16/01 11:42 AMNaipaul, terrorist suicide, brotherhoodYou can start reading V.S. Naipaul from several different points. "North of South" is obvious. A very uncomfy book about "civilization(s)".But you can also choose "Black and White": it's Naipaul's reportage on the 1978 Guyana People's temple mass suicide. The book is about the most silenced aspects of that tragedy (900 people dead, all of them American, many of them children, as in "Afghani children" or "Palestinian children"). 900 deads makes 100 more than in Sabra and Chatila, or more or less the total death toll of the "first Intifada" among Palestinians over a span of several years.Naipaul dismisses the "religious cult" and "psychiatric" interpretation of the slaughter, and traces its origins back to ideology, economic programs, socialist agricultural experiments, until it reaches the Black Power and white-therapeutic movements of the '70s.Worth reading (which is far more than you can say for most Nobel Laureates over the past decades. Of course, excluding those who don't even write, like Dario Fo).igor feldman@consilia.com 10/16/01 9:23 PMNapeter and NaipaulDo you two clowns presume that it will take much more time until you two idiots realize that Vidia Naipaul and Shiva Naipaul are NOT the same person?Shiva being the author of "North of South" and "Black and White", and Vidia being the Nobel prize winner?2001_10_17_Ze eviBenny admiral@consilia.com 10/17/01 10:34 AMze'eviHere come the first newswire and newspaper headlines: of course, Minister Ze'evi was "the controversial Minister" etc etc.Of course.I'd say he is dead. First. Shot. Second. Killed. Third. An elected officer. Fourth. That killing an electedminister is an act of war because it directly targets State security privileges and bypasses all diplomatic customs."Controversial", Last.Not the other way round.Usual kind of automatic leftist reflex ("automatic reflexes" are leftist by definition. Psychic determinism IS leftist by definition), which forces journalists to qualify events before describing them.The same happened when Mr Katzav was elected. Never mind he was elected in a democratic process: world press commented that unfortunately the Israelis had failed to elect a man of peace, and that they had chosen a "rightist" (a fairly moderate conservative to say the least).That the FIRST reaction to Ze'evi's murder has been to isolate and qualify him, shows that the CNN guys are missing the point once again.This is a war, boys, and you didn't even begin to understand why and how.I think that Arafat's assassination is long overdue. And that scruples are groundless.